Coronavirus: fresh questions of trust over Chinese figures

The introduction of a new method of counting the number of those infected with coronavirus, and the number of fatalities, adopted by the Chinese government has revealed an apparent spike in the number of reported deaths and infections. Figures now stand at 64,437 infected and 1,383 dead – though only 3 fatalities have occurred outside mainland China.

Is the number of cases surging? Professor Paul Hunter, Professor of Health Protection at the University of East Anglia, said he doubts it. However, the additions due to the new counting method, as well as the removal of 108 fatalities from the total due to “duplicate statistics”, has raised fresh questions about how far official Chinese data and assessment of the disease can be trusted.

Many experts have already raised concerns about the strong incentives to bury bad news in China’s totalitarian systems, which contributed to the initially slow response. The new confusion over the numbers will only stoke these worries.

Already, Larry Kudlow, the US National Economic Council’s director, has publicly asked “Is the politburo really being honest with us?” stating he was “disappointed” about the lack of cooperation and transparency on the part of the Chinese. Offers of American help have apparently been turned down.

Indeed, China seems determined to tightly control all information about the virus. Despite the outcry following the death from the virus of Dr Li Wenliang, who had been arrested by the police after warning his friends about the virus early on, others have faced similar treatment – two citizen journalists reporting on the virus in Wuhan have disappeared.

This repression continues even as the virus apparently continues to spread with draconian quarantine measures proliferating across China – despite earlier Chinese predictions the virus was contained and would decline. Commenting on predictions about how long the epidemic would last Professor Mark Fielder, Professor in Medical Microbiology, Kingston University, said the April deadline predicted by the Chinese “might be a little optimistic”. The fight is also already taking its toll on Chinese health workers – 1,716 were infected as of 11 February, and six have died.

There also major concerns about North Korea. While the state has hinted at some persons being quarantined the usual secrecy that pervades the country’s internal affairs has persisted. The country’s ramshackle medical system makes it particularly vulnerable to an outbreak.

Worries about coronavirus are continuing to have an impact on markets as well. Gold prices spiked sharply today after the news of new infections, even as the prices of base metals dropped. Investors seeking certainty have also poured record amounts into fixed-income fund and Asian companies have raised hard-currency debt a record rate hedging against a potential coronavirus induced global economic slowdown.

Fear of contagion is disrupting business in China – and in other at risk areas. Some factories remain shut in China in an effort to contain the spread. Meanwhile, in Hong Kong the government is giving handouts worth HK$ 25 billion (£2.4 million) to businesses and hospitals to try and cushion the impact of the virus.

Stronger measures could also conceivably be introduced in Britain. Matt Hancock, the Secretary of State for Health, declared on Monday coronavirus represented “a serious and imminent threat to public health”. Sir Simon Stevens, the head of NHS England, also warned that more people may have to be forced to self-isolate.

These comments follow the revelation that someone subsequently diagnosed with coronavirus attended the UK Bus Summit on 6 February alongside 200 other people in central London. Another patient diagnosed with the virus defied medical advice by travelling to the hospital by Uber before walking into the A&E department. So far, 2,521 people have been tested for the virus in the UK with only nine having been found to be infected.