Coronavirus crisis is remaking the political landscape of the Middle East
A major shakeout is taking place across the Middle East – a ragged reordering of events and circumstances is underway. The Coronavirus crisis is producing its own brand of anarchy, a catalyst or trigger in the crash from peak oil to zero-price oil. It comes 99 years after a famous attempt to sort out the burgeoning chaos in the Middle East at the conferences preside over in Cairo and Jerusalem by the newly minted British Colonial Secretary, Winston Churchill.
But unlike at the Cairo conference of 1921, this time there is no dominant world power to run the show in the Middle East – America, Britain and, to an extent, France, are absent without leave. Russia and China aspire to influence and use leverage in their overt and covert choreography of manipulation and mischief. Both understand they cannot dominate – they don’t want to, for that would mean owning the increasingly messy problems across the region.
Iran and Turkey have seen the highest numbers, proportionally, of their population testing positive for the virus. By 21 April, Turkey recorded slightly more than Iran with confirmed cases nudging the 85,000 mark. Despite the devastations of the virus, and economies in nosedive, both have continued to indulge in risky adventures.
Iran has test launched a rocket, allegedly to put a satellite in space, and continued to meddle in the affairs of government in Baghdad. They have kept up challenges to international shipping passing the Straits of Hormuz. By mistake, Iranian coastguards boarded a Chinese tanker – although they quickly scarpered once they realised their mistake. A confrontation with an American ship brought a characteristic tweet from President Trump, “I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea.”
Iran’s economy has shrunk by more than 9.5% of GDP over the last year, Hisham Hillyer explained to the panel at RUSI’s online seminar last week: “They are trying to behave as if it is business as usual. In Iraq they are still pushing for US forces to leave – so the tempo of attacks on their bases is on the rise.”
Trump still sees hope in the virus crisis for his long term aim of regime change in Tehran. The President believes that his main lever in this regard remains the abandonment of the nuclear agreement of 2016, the JCPOA, combined with additional sanctions. This is yet another point of friction between him and the EU and their allies. The EU and Britain want to facilitate a humanitarian package of food and aid of about $500 billion, which the US has said it will veto at the Security Council.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, too, is not allowing weakness and worries at home to deter him from further foreign adventure. Ziya Meral of RUSI explained that “a crumbling economy seems to encourage him to further risky ventures.” Some seem quite small, she said, such as the putting of a hydrocarbons survey ship into disputed offshore waters in the Eastern Mediterranean. Of a different magnitude is the continuing and major commitment to Somalia, where Turkey now maintains its largest overseas military base for decades.
But it is in Libya that Turkey’s intervention is proving decisive in changing the course of the nine years of civil war. Turkey has committed forces to help the UN – sponsored Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli since 2015. The employment of Turkish airpower in recent days seems to have turned the tide against the year-long attack by the self-styled leader of the Libyan National Army, General Khalifa Haftar, who intended to take the capital itself. Haftar has been supplied by Egypt and the UAE, and relied heavily on mercenaries from Sudan and Darfur, and a few hundred from Russia’s Wagner company in ground operations.
Turkish airpower, including drones, has neutralized the attack drones supplied to Haftar by the UAE. Despite support, overt and covert from Egypt, UAE, Russia and France, the Haftar forces have been driven back in a series of government attacks in “Operation Volcano of Rage.” A large area west of the capital to the Tunisian border has been recaptured. The government claims to have opened the coast road running east, seizing towns like Sabratha, and two key cities. They are now closing in on Tahouna, the main supply hub for the Haftar forces in across western Libya.
The mercenary forces are reported now to be reluctant to fight for the warlord Haftar, who they believe is running out of money. Despite being a natural self-publicist, the old warlord hasn’t been seen in public for a fortnight now. Nor does the UAE have the funds and hardware to continue to back a drawn-out attack on Tripoli. It is all part of the “Coronavirus Effect”.
The GNA of Fayez al Sarraj in Tripoli is worried about the likely devastation of a major outbreak of the pandemic. Two weeks ago the attack by Haftar’s Grad missiles on the suburbs of Tripoli resulted in two million civilians losing water and electricity supplies. Two hospitals were hit, one where virus victims were treated, allegedly.
But so far there has been little sign of Covid-19, though this is expected to change dramatically with the arrival this week of Ramadan, with its ritual gatherings for the breaking of fast (“Iftar”). As of the middle of April, official figures recorded one death from Covid-19 from 35 cases, with nine recoveries – the first case being notified on 24 March.
Almost none of this has been reported in international media. Nonetheless it does mark a major power shift in the Middle East. The states of the Western Maghreb, led by Algeria and Morocco, have been “leaning against Egyptian involvement in Libya,” as a senior European diplomat describes it. “Algeria is proving remarkably resilient, in observing lockdown, part of the authoritarian legacy. This means that after a year, the mass protest movement, the Hirak, has just stopped dead – and the government has started arresting journalists again.”
Algeria has sided tacitly with Turkey in Libya – “they recognized that if Haftar had taken Tripoli, an even worse and truly terrible civil war would have followed,” the EU ambassador mused. Algeria under its new presidency is preoccupied by collapsing energy prices and insufficient medical expertise to face a full coronavirus onslaught. Algeria and its neighbours have consistently lost their best and brightest medical students to France, home to more than 20,000 doctors from the Maghreb.
Algeria’s contribution to regenerating a peace process for Libya has been thwarted – from left field. Three weeks ago, Ghassam Salame resigned as the US special envoy for Libya. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres agreed that the former Algerian foreign minister, and accomplished pan-African diplomat Ramtane Lamamra should replace him. Donald Trump then vetoed the appointment. Offering this spoiler appears to be his main contribution to the Libyan crisis.
“Maybe they thought Lamamra was leaning against Egypt, an American ally,” said the European ambassador, “realistically though, it makes little sense. My American colleagues tell me now that in the State Department they have no idea what the White House will do or think from one 24-hour period to another.”
America and Britain are steadily absenting themselves from many areas and activities across the Middle East. “China and Russia are moving across the Mediterranean – there has always been a historic link between Moscow and Algiers, but that’s stronger now,” the EU ambassador explained.
China and Russia are also extending activities in Africa, coronavirus or no. “It’s interesting to see how the US and UK leadership in tropical medicine, hygiene and health emergencies is now being challenged across Africa now,” according to Theresa Jones, a health expert who has dealt with a number of emergencies, including the Ebola outbreak, in several central African countries.
Across the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa we are seeing what is only the very beginning of the reshaping of human geography and politics, caused or catalysed by the coronavirus pandemic.