China watches with a close eye as Taiwan heads to the polls
In November, following their summit in San Francisco, President Biden said he warned President Xi not to interfere in the Taiwanese election. Since then, Beijing has said it will enact trade sanctions if the ruling party Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) continues to support “Taiwan independence”, China’s media has urged Taiwan’s public to “Make the correct choice”, its military ships and planes have made numerous incursions across the Taiwan Strait, and an “unknown actor” has been conducting a massive information campaign on social media against the DPP and in favour of the main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT).
It was bound to happen, and Biden will have known that. Taiwan is such an important strategic and emotional issue for the Chinese leadership they will not let an election pass without seeking to influence it.
During the worst of the Covid crisis, Beijing quickly realised that its cyber units could take advantage of the fact that so many people were at home and online. Taiwan was an obvious target. TikTok, Facebook, YouTube and other social media platforms have been utilised to bombard Taiwan with messages, short videos, and even deep fakes, all of which have increased in the run-up to the election on 13 January.
Algorithms help Chinese agents to fine-tune the messaging to different audiences, for example towards elderly voters who still identify themselves as Chinese, and the younger generation who overwhelmingly identify as Taiwanese. Financial incentives from murky sources are used to pay people on the island to promote pro-China narratives.
China is one of the main concerns for most voters along with employment and the cost of living. The election is for a new president and parliament, and if the front-runner from the DPP wins the presidency he may have to govern with the KMT.
President Tsai Ing-wen is standing down after eight years in power. Her staunchly held position that the island of 23 million people is independent has contributed to a deteriorating relationship with China which culminated with Beijing suspending formal communications. The DPP hopes that vice-president Lai Ching-te will now be elected to take her place. Beijing dislikes him at least as much as it does Ing-wen mostly due to comments about wanting Taiwanese sovereignty made when he was younger.
Lai has moderated his stance and now talks about keeping the status quo position – one China, two governments. He says he will negotiate with China based on principles of “equality and dignity”. The rulers of the People’s Republic of China cannot countenance “the principle of equality” with the leader of what it regards as a breakaway province even if the PRC has never actually ruled the island. It has rejected talks with Lai calling him a “destroyer of cross-strait peace” and a “warmaker”. Lai’s pick for vice-president is labelled “a stubborn secessionist”.
The main challenger to Lai is the KMT candidate – Hou Yu-ih. He is a former police officer who went on to be mayor of New Taipei City. Over the past few decades, the KMT has supported closer ties with China and takes a less resolute stance on sovereignty. Hou has attacked Lai for needlessly provoking Bejing instead of seeking stronger diplomatic and economic ties. Nevertheless, with a weather eye on popular opinion, he also supports strengthening Taiwan’s military defences.
The third main candiate is Ko Wen-je from the Taiwan People’s Party which he founded only five years ago. The former mayor of Taipei casts himself as an outsider disrupter and appeals to voters who are disenchanted with the limited choice of the KMT and DPP. His focus is more on domestic issues such as house prices and low wages, than the sovereignty question.
A Lai victory this weekend will see China huff and puff. Beijing would probably send signals across the Taiwan Strait in the shape of warships and planes crossing beyond the median line between the two which would raise tensions and add to the possibility of inadvertent escalation. It might cut internet cables, and or announce trade restrictions. But then, it would probably settle down and return to the long game of waiting out American support for Taiwan whilst steadily building its own military capabilities to give it the eventual option of a war of choice via an invasion of the island.
Theoretically, China already possesses the wherewithal for an invasion. However, it does not have the capability to take on the US in the long war that might follow. That is one of many constraining factors making overt military action against the main island unlikely this decade. Another is that half of the world’s container ships pass through the strait every year and much of that traffic contains goods from the export nation that is China. Disrupting that and disrupting the Taiwanese semiconductors supply which is crucial for the world economy is not the way to navigate your way out of the economic slump China seems to be in.
Taiwan’s elections are important in isolation, but this one falls in the same as year as that of the US which gives it extra focus. The new president may find himself dealing with a second term in the White House for Donald Trump. The unpredictability of decision-making in a Trump administration could make for “interesting times” in the South China Sea.
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