Can Rishi Sunak save the Union from Boris and Nicola?

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it’s Rishi Sunak, the new Superman of Tory politics. The Chancellor of the Exchequer is the darling of his party, as Mutaz Ahmed explained in his perceptive profile published on Reaction ahead of the Summer Statement delivered today. In said statement yet more billions of borrowed money were splurged with the purpose of rescuing the British economy from imminent immolation. The confident way that Sunak performs is a tonic for his party and the country.

The Tories are worried about Boris and his erratic performance, and don’t be deceived into believing otherwise by the cheerful boosterism and deranged briefings from maniacal elements in Number 10. Speaking of ludicrous spin, one of the ironies of the Dominic Cummings interlude in British history is, incidentally, that while Dom loves to denounce pundits as all being know nothing numbskulls he works for the biggest pundit of them all – Boris. And Dom is himself a frustrated journalist who needed the firm hand of an editor to cut his copy to shreds (from the top).

A veteran Scottish newspaper executive of my acquaintance, if he had been forced to read an endless Cummings blog post, with the interesting bits buried deep, would have muttered “how much more of this mince, is there?”

So, I’ll keep this short.

The Tories are delighted to see Rishi. He throws the money around and speaks clearly. He works hard and wears his popularity lightly. They have found their new hero.

This soon after Boris won a majority of 80 it might sound daft to think that he will not fight the next general election as Tory leader. But far stranger things have happened, including to Margaret Thatcher.

Will Boris in 2024 at an election really be able to say with a straight face that he wants to carry on avoiding wading through ministerial boxes until 2028 or beyond? Don’t be silly. He has a Shakespeare biography to deliver (how many chapters to go?) and speeches to make for which great fortunes will be charged.

One other factor to watch out for that may decide Johnson’s fate in the next year or two is the future of the Union.

Now, I know (as a Scot living in England) that it fashionable to say that the English don’t care about this, and I suppose many would not on the basis that the Scots are always moaning about something and Europe is always evolving and so what if the northern bit of Britain breaks off to become like Norway with no money.

But to be the Prime Minister, or the party, that presided over that break up would be seriously bad news. The name Boris would echo down the centuries as a pitiful cry of shame.

If Sturgeon wins the Scottish devolved election next year with an overall majority it will be extremely difficult to resist her demands for a referendum, and the polls suggest she would – as of now – win such a vote. Johnson has to – simply must – find a way of preventing Sturgeon winning that majority at Holyrood.

Boris might have grown, I certainly thought he would, on enough Scots to not be an impediment to the Unionist cause if Covid-19 hadn’t happened. As it is, looking at his pitiful ratings, unless something major changes he will in a referendum fight to save the Union be as much use as a chocolate teapot against the Nats.

It may be unfair (life is unfair) but Boris is exactly the kind of cartoonish figure a Nationalist Scot, and many others too, would design as the epitome of a certain kind of Englishness that Scots don’t like.

Rishi Sunak? He would be a much tougher challenge for the SNP. He’s highly competent at the business of government and he smiles. That already gives him two advantages going up against Scotland’s First Minister.