Can India and Pakistan step back from the brink?
“This heinous act of aggression will not go unpunished,” Pakistani leader Shehbaz Sharif warned India today, as the nuclear-armed rivals inch closer to all-out war following a spate of deadly Indian airstrikes on Pakistan this morning.
India’s foreign ministry, meanwhile, insists: “The whole country is happy we took revenge”.
In the early hours of today, India launched a series of missile strikes on nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, which Islamabad says killed at least 26 people, including a child, and injured 46 more.
Delhi claims the strikes targeted camps and hideouts affiliated with Pakistan-based militants Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, which it holds response for an attack in Kashmir last month - the deadliest on civilians in the region in over two decades - that has triggered a sharp escalation in tensions with its long-time rival, Pakistan.
On 22 April, 26 people, mainly Indian tourists, were killed in Pahalgam, in Indian-administered Jammu & Kashmir, after five gunmen emerged from the pine forests and launched their ambush.
A manhunt for the killers is still underway. But the Indian government says it has evidence linking Pakistan-based militants to the attack. Islamabad denies this, challenging it to produce any evidence to support its accusation.
This morning’s targeting of Bahawalpur town in Pakistan’s most populous Punjab province is the deepest Delhi has struck since the two countries’ war in 1971. According to the Indian government, the attack in Bahawalpur was targeting Masood Azhar, the head of Jaish-e-Mohammed.
Pakistan’s military says it shot down five of the Indian jets, two of which came down in Kashmir and one in India’s Bathinda. India is yet to comment.
There are also reports emerging today of cross-border shelling along the militarised “line of control” that separates the Indian and Pakistani areas of the disputed Kashmir territory. The Indian army says at least 10 civilians have been killed by Pakistani shelling on its side of the border.
What now?
Neither side wants all-out war, but they both want to demonstrate strength to their domestic population.
India has done so by taking decisive action to avenge last month’s attack. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s claim that it has downed several Indian aircraft is one way for it to avoid looking weak. Meaning this development could create room for de-escalation.
But it may not be enough. We should prepare for the possibility of a retaliatory attack on Indian soil.
Pakistan’s Security Committee has been clear that it reserves the right to respond to India’s strikes "at a time, place and manner of its choosing".
Indo-Pakistani relations have, without a doubt, plummeted to their lowest point in decades. The biggest deterrent for both sides? As ever, the other nuclear’s arsenal.
Caitlin Allen
Deputy Editor
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