Which cabinet minister will be sacked first by Theresa May?

Whitehall is deep in transition, with officials adapting to the new dispensation now that David Cameron and George Osborne are gone and Theresa May is in charge. Advisers as well as ministers have been shuffled about and all concerned are trying to understand the reporting lines and ways of working that come with the installation of a new regime in Number 10. Many ministers are away on holiday and May herself is in Switzerland on a walking trip, although this year – after the excitements of June and July – there is an added incentive for ministers to keep in touch with London for fear they miss anything.

There is the added complication this summer that Whitehall is being reorganised in preparation for Brexit. The first evidence of a turf war appeared earlier this month with the leaking of a letter from International Trade Secretary Liam Fox to Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, in which Fox suggested that some of the FCO’s responsibilities be moved into his area of responsibility. There is a question mark over the Foreign Office’s ability to run economic diplomacy.

The disputed genesis of that leak is interesting. Even though it was interpreted as Fox privately and publicly parking his tanks on Johnson’s lawn, it is suspected that it may well have been leaked by Number 10, or allies of Number 10, to show the Brexit boys fighting and make it clear that the centre knows what is going on. Who knows. Leak inquiries never get anywhere.

But the murky episode does raise a key question about Theresa May and the kind of Prime Minister she will prove to be. The new Tory leader is in an extremely strong position and, as the decision to hold off on the Hinkley nuclear deal with the Chinese demonstrated, quite prepared to be ruthlessly decisive. After a long period in which a Tory Prime Minister – David Cameron – had to worry about balancing factions in cabinet and the Commons, May has much more freedom of manoeuvre.

This might sound odd, when she was for Remain and the UK voted for Brexit, and the Tory party has some Brexity backbenchers on alert for the merest hint of betrayal. Yet it is precisely because of the turmoil of June and July that she is, for now, unassailable as far as the vast bulk of her party is concerned, and thus extremely dangerous to any ministers who step too far out of line. Her strength rests in her being the grown-up who turned up just in time to steady the ship while the boys threw each other overboard. Her approach since then has obviously impressed middle ground voters, and Tory activists and the wider Tory tribe, whose appetites for political game-playing undertaken by their elected representatives have probably been exhausted by what unfolded a few months ago.

With that being the case, even big beast cabinet ministers need to tread carefully. I have no doubt that given an opportunity May will fire one pour encourager les autres, and early if she has to. Doing so would send the following message: “Right, you ridiculous boys. You were appointed to undertake an important national task at a difficult moment. But you seem more concerned with playing silly games, refusing to get on with your work like your other more sensible colleagues. For that reason you are fired. If any of the rest of you boys would rather play games than deliver, then more firings can be arranged. There are plenty of able people further down the ministerial ranks who would love to contribute. Get out of my office.”

The new PM’s authority will not always be this unchallengeable, of course. May or her closest supporters in Number 10 may choose to make the mistake of running an excessively paranoid and closed operation, one that foolishly alienates senior civil servants, ministers and members of the lobby (the parliamentary press corps) when it all hots up again in the autumn. But that subject is for another time. For now, ministers should fear May the merciless.