Buck up Boris or you won’t last a year

Boris Johnson is more than a politician. He is a phenomenon: the most extraordinary Prime Minister in history – even more so than Disraeli. To say that he seemed an improbable PM is an understatement, yet that was not a universal view. After Boris was re-elected as Mayor of London, David Cameron concluded that this was his successor: political and animal energy would carry him to Number 10. But where were the other qualities? His performance as Foreign Secretary was distinctly unimpressive. At the time, I wrote that to his great office of state he brought as much gravity as a clown running away from the circus because a bailiff had arrived with a paternity suit. When Bojo was appointed Editor of the Spectator, Andrew Gimson said that this was like leaving an ape in charge of a Ming vase. The premiership is a more important post. Despite David Cameron’s relaxed attitude, some of us felt that Boris was a charismatic narcissist in a long tradition stretching back to Alcibiades. This was not a suitable temperament for a man entrusted with running a country.

Then everything changed. He won the Tory leadership and in short order the premiership. Charles Moore wrote that perhaps Boris was only suited to one job: the top one. For a few weeks, it seemed that Charles might be right. Premier Boris had a number of assets. First, there was every hope that Labour would remain stricken by the Corbyn virus. As for the Liberals, was there a pulse? It did seem possible that Brexit could be resolved within a few months. Moreover, there was money to spend. Back then, it was widely assumed that the government could borrow up to £100 billion for infrastructure projects, at a very low rate of interest. Once that money reached the economy, tax and VAT receipts would rise. The government almost had a moulin mystique at its disposal. It seemed that Boris was the first Tory leader since Margaret Thatcher circa 1988 to have that vital political attribute: luck.

Then it all went wrong.

This is unfair: alas, so what? It has been claimed that in addition to the Ten Commandments propounded by lesser establishments, Etonians learn a couple of extra ones. First, there is the Eleventh: “thou shalt not get caught”. To be fair to Boris, he has been defying it for decades and suffering no harm.

But the Twelfth, inexorable, has now caught up with him: “life is unfair”. If the Democrats had won the Presidency in 1928, and Herbert Hoover had been the Republican candidate in 1932, he would have prevailed easily, proved rather better at dealing with the Great Depression than Roosevelt was, and been remembered as an outstanding President. Neville Chamberlain could have been a great Prime Minister, but for Hitler.

More recently, what did Bill Clinton do? He will be remembered for unorthodox cigar usage in the White House: what else? Yet he won two terms.

But for Covid, Boris could have had an easy ski-ride down the nursery slopes, proclaiming “have cake, eat cake”, and winning a second term. Now, it is by no means clear that he will fight a second election.

A Prime Minister has to play the hand that fate deals him. Although we do not know how much Boris’s own illness undermined his health and morale, a PM has to perform. There, Boris has failed. Throughout, there has been a lack of grip. He cannot make up his mind. There will be an onrush of optimism: supplies of cake will shortly be resumed. But then there is a relapse into pessimism. So: a couple of weeks ago, everyone should go back to work, use public transport and reach out for normality. More recently, it has been the rule of six and hints of another lock-down. We also had the moon-shot, a plan which he completely misrepresented. The moon – lunar – has traditionally been associated with lunacy. Is this once again true? It appears that Boris is caught between two fears, medical and economic. One can sympathise. There is no easy answer. But answering hard questions is a PM’s job.

He also has to surround himself with the right people. Matt Hancock is an able fellow. By all accounts, he is still in good spirits, determined to tough everything out. But if he were a war-time battalion, he would have been pulled out of the front-line for R&R. If he were a wartime general, he would have been sacked.

On Covid, there are three ways forward. Testing, testing and testing. It is also necessary to talk frankly to the public, both encouraging sensible behaviour and reconciling people to collective immunity. Covid is not about to disappear. Stoicism and calm will be needed, and consistency from the government would help.

Then there is Europe. Dominic Cummings clearly decided that he was not receiving enough publicity. He could have paid another visit to Barnard Castle. Instead, he decided to cause chaos in the senior ranks of the Tory party. Earlier in the year, he managed to force out a Chancellor of the Exchequer. This time, it was the Advocate-General, Richard Keen, one of the ablest members of the government. That was all wholly unnecessary. There was no need to threaten to breach international law. Ministers should have talked about clarification, modifications and contingency plans, with a distinct element of threat, albeit still muted. Lord Keen should have been involved in the careful construction of the right language. But that is not the Cummings way.

Covid has been serious. but Brexit is more important. Who has confidence in Boris to secure the best possible arrangements?

Then, there is the economic recovery: the most important of all. Can we steer a course between depression and stagflation? Fortunately, Rishi Sunak is there to provide reassurance. It would also be reassuring if we could be certain that Mr Cummings would not be there.

As for the PM’s role, he is still popular, in England. A lot of people are willing him to succeed. Curiously enough, the lack of confidence in his powers is now more apparent in Westminster and Whitehall.

Among his colleagues, Boris commands surprisingly little affection and respect. The view that he is simply not up to it is increasingly widespread. This is compounded by the cabinet, one of the weakest in modern history. What does Gavin Williamson have to do in order to be sacked? There are two theories about Boris’s cabinet-making. First, that he cannot tell good from bad. Second, that he is afraid of good people. Neither is encouraging (both could be true).

Boris is safe, at the moment, because he is still seen as a winner. But history is being re-interpreted. Did Boris win the last Election – or did Jeremy Corbyn lose it? Next year is going to be mighty hard for the Government. Brexit, the economy, Scotland, education and exams, the right policy on housing. If all Boris can do is burble about the moon and promise cake, he may as well fly to the moon. Unless Boris raises his game in a way that many of his colleagues fear is beyond him, forget about cake. By this time next year, he will be toast.