A very British coup – involving secrecy, embarrassment, farce and no coup
When Theresa May made a public statement last Wednesday the effect was so disastrous that even the cabinet – even the cabinet – decided privately that she would have to go.
An attempt to oust her from within began. But, while Theresa May is too weak to control her MPs, and too weak to see her negotiated Withdrawal Agreement over the line, it seems her cabinet is also too weak to organise an effective coup.
In her statement the prime minister pitted the public against MPs: “You want this stage of the Brexit process to be over and done with. I agree. I am on your side. It is now time for MPs to decide.” The bizarre sentiment shocked ministers, with even the government’s chief whip Julian Smith describing it as “appalling.”
Cabinet met the following day and reports came flooding in that she was under immense pressure to leave post. If she wouldn’t leave then she should certainly leave if her deal fails to get through parliament for a third time, senior cabinet members argued.
By the weekend May was holding crisis talks at Chequers with cabinet members and senior backbenchers – desperate to find support amid the continued threat of a coup. Members of the cabinet were setting up her de facto deputy David Lidington or Environment Secretary Michael Gove to take up the role of a caretaker prime minister. Lidington had strong backing and both men have a well-developed political operation. The theory was that one of them would in the short term negotiate the government through the Brexit muddle. However, while the cabinet may have been united on wanting to oust Theresa May, they failed to unite over anything else: including crucially on who should replace her.
On Sunday morning both Gove and Lidington, among several other cabinet members, dismissed any talk of a coup. Chancellor Philip Hammond came out first to denounce the rumours, despite being touted as a backer of Lidington in The Sunday Times. Lidington told reporters: “One thing that working closely with the prime minister does is cure you completely of any lingering shred of ambition to want to do that task.” And Gove later added: “It’s not the time to change the captain of the ship.”
By cabinet today, Monday, there was no mention of the coup or May’s departure, or of the attempts to dispel the rumours, or the split between Gove and Lidington supporters.
While ministers clearly remain frustrated with May’s intransigence they are unable to unite on a credible alternative.
Carrying out a successful coup is a tricky business. Carrying out a coup so unsuccessful that everyone is too embarrassed to mention it constitutes a farce.
Meanwhile, the government is left at the mercy of a parliament that also can’t decide on what it wants. The government will almost certainly lose a vote this evening that will bring a series of indicative votes to the Commons on Wednesday evening. But May told MPs today that she could not commit to carrying out whatever will is expressed by the House in these votes, and doubled down on her commitment to passing her deal.
The reality is that May can’t be formally challenged until December, and has demonstrated her intransigence to be her core strength and failing. She can’t get the support of her MPs, but it is unlikely she’ll go unless pushed. The cabinet meanwhile can’t seem to figure out how to push her. It’s hard to know who is in charge.