Britain’s energy crisis is far from over
Britain’s energy crisis, which came to a head following Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, appears far from over.
Today, the government was forced to issue a statement, denying reports that the UK came close to blackouts earlier this week and insisting that Britain has enough gas to get it through the winter.
This came after Centrica, which operates Britain’s largest gas storage site, warned earlier today that the country’s gas inventory levels are "concerningly low" - 26 per cent lower than this time last year - with less than a week of gas demand in store.
The company attributed this to a “perfect storm”. A spike in energy demand due to the freezing weather, poor wind generation, and difficulty topping up supplies over Christmas after European gas prices reached their highest level since October 2023.
Prior to Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, over 40 per cent of Europe’s gas imports came from Russia. While the extent to which the continent has shaken off its dependence on Russian gas is arguably impressive, it has paid a price for doing so.
Britain, alongside many other European nations, is now heavily dependent on liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US - which has acted as both a saviour and a far-from-perfect alternative.
Europe's switch from Russian pipeline gas to LNG has significantly increased energy costs, as it now has to outbid countries across the world, including China and India, to guarantee these vital shipments.
Competition has been strong as of late: many emerging nations have been experiencing heatwaves meaning demand for electricity is rising while Europe is experiencing a far colder spell than the unusually mild winter of 2023-24.
The good news is that the UK’s weather is expected to warm next week. And, according to Bloomberg’s energy guru, Javier Blas, the 2024-25 winter is likely to be the last difficult one for Europe. From 2026 onwards, new LNG supply will arrive, notably from Qatar and the US, easing global competition for cargoes.
Even so, today’s warning from Centrica should serve as a stark reminder for the UK government of the importance of increasing Britain’s energy storage facilities.
While other countries across Europe have been impacted by this “perfect storm”, Britain has some of the lowest levels of storage in Europe, making it far less resilient. The UK’s total gas storage capacity is around 10 per cent or less than in France, Germany, or the Netherlands.
As Centrica points out, gas stores are vital because they “enable countries to not only guarantee supplies during the transition to renewables but also to avoid short-term price spikes on wholesale markets.”
While the UK government has acknowledged that energy security will ultimately depend in large part on ramping up domestic supplies, it has focussed heavily on renewables. Labour has resisted pressure to bolster gas supplies through additional North Sea fields, instead vowing to make Britain a clean energy superpower.
But current weather conditions are a reminder that heavy reliance on wind farms leaves the UK vulnerable to “dunkelflaute”, where the calm is accompanied by cold weather.
Striving for an energy system heavily run by renewables only adds to the importance of investing in the country’s storage capacity. To attempt to make Britain a clean energy superpower without doing so would be disastrous.
The government would do well to remember too that cheap energy is vital for generating the growth it so desperately depends on.
Caitlin Allen
Deputy Editor
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Britain's energy crisis is not far from over - it is about to begin.
Unless, that is, we stop the headlong rush to what you called 'renewables'... but 'renewables' is a misnomer. Better call them what they are: "polluting intermittents".
One thing that these polluting intermittents are not, is 'clean'. Blighting the countryside with huge concrete blocks, burying old wind farms and solar panels in landfill and chopping up birds in flight is not 'clean'. As you point out, to carry out the current administration's intentions (I'm not going to call them 'plans') we'll need the backup power stations (that could be our primary) anyway during Dunkelflaute conditions.
The Laleham Policy Unit has mapped out the impossibility of the task of implementing this grand folly of electrification by 2050:
https://sites.google.com/view/the-lpf/home
And it is not as if this gargantuan capital cost will result in cheaper power. The grand electrification folly would result in an approximately 5 x increase in electricity usage (replacing the use of efficient and cheap gas boilers in homes and industry), and using electricity for heating - even with more efficient heat pumps, which will only work in a small sub-section of situations - and we will need full 'dispatchable' backup power (e.g. gas or coal) that can be switched when wind power is not working. Batteries will not help, as the whole point is that Dunkelflaute can last for weeks. However big the battery installations, if there is nothing to charge them with, they can only help reduce peak load (perhaps our future nuclear fleet will be able to charge them at night).
The 'Net Zero' project should be called what it is: "Wallace & Gromit & The Grand Electrification Folly".
It truly is a Grand Madness. Make it stop. The alternative is very straightford, as outline by the Laleham Policy Unit above: add reliable dispatchable power (gas and coal), build stockpiles of coal when prices are low and invest now in the nuclear fleet.
PS. While we are at it, please stop thinking of solar as being a meaningful part of our energy mix at these northern latitudes. All it does is create a parasite on the grid. It produces lots of energy when it is not needed, and none when it is needed. Hot countries might want to consider solar to offset air conditioning demand.