Britain backs Sweden and Finland with historic security pacts
Boris Johnson has signed two historic security pacts with Sweden and Finland, and vowed to back their applications to join NATO in a bid to shore up Europe’s defences against Russian aggression, writes Mattie Brignal.
In a whistle-stop Nordic tour today, the PM pledged that the UK would come to the aid of both countries should they come under attack. Sweden and Finland agreed to do the same.
Johnson said the pacts would “fortify Europe’s defences for generations to come”. It will mean more intelligence sharing and the UK sending more troops, aircraft and ships to the region.
As the PM flew from Stockholm to Helsinki, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told students at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris via videolink: “If Ukraine had been part of NATO before the war, there would have been no war.”
The agreements are part of a tectonic shift in Europe’s security architecture, with both Finland and Sweden poised to apply to join NATO, possibly in the next few days.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced both countries to rethink their approach. Both their Scandinavian neighbours, Norway – which has a 123-mile border with Russia – and Denmark, were founding members of NATO. Although Iceland has no military force, it is also a member.
In Finland, the war has dredged up ghosts of the past. The country was forced to cede 10 per cent of its territory and pay reparations to the Soviet Union after it was defeated in the Second World War. Its subsequent neutrality was a condition of peace imposed by the Soviets in 1948 and was seen in Finland as a pragmatic way of avoiding confrontation.
Finns are acutely aware that their 810-mile border with Russia would be difficult to defend in the event of an attack. Popular support for joining the alliance, which hovered between 20 and 25 per cent for years, has reached 76 per cent.
The Swedes are a little warier, with polls putting support for joining NATO at a just over 50 per cent. Sweden’s history of neutrality stretches back 200 years and is more ideological than Finland’s. The country has cast itself in the role of international mediator for decades, and sceptics believe NATO membership, and the nuclear threat that accompanies it, complicates peace efforts and undermines Sweden’s leading role in nuclear disarmament.
Sweden’s Social Democrats are split on the issue, although Magdalena Andersson, the Prime Minister, has said joining the alliance will improve Baltic security.
Will Sweden and Finland joining NATO make Europe safer?
Those in favour point to the military boost it will give NATO in northern Europe. Both countries’ armed forces have expertise in Arctic warfare and the alliance is heavily outnumbered by Russian troops in the north. Sweden is skilled at intelligence gathering.
Bringing Finland into the fold would plug a big gap in NATO’s defences, doubling its land border with Russia, and send a clear message of resolve to Vladimir Putin.
Critics will say that by further expanding NATO, the West is repeating the mistake it has made since the end of the Cold War. Advancing to Russia’s borders is interpreted by Moscow as a threat and increases the risk of a military response. The Kremlin has warned of “military and political repercussions” if the countries join the alliance. After Russia’s war in Ukraine, can the Kremlin really be surprised by the response? It seems their intelligence and planning was that bad.
For Swedes and Finns, the most persuasive argument is likely to be the most visceral. The death and destruction witnessed in Ukraine, a country which does not enjoy the protection of the NATO umbrella but sits on the borders of those that do, shows that democracies such as Sweden, Finland and the UK had best stick together.