Why as a Brexiteer I want Article 50 extended
Brexit is a process, not an event. This was a sensible slogan that I and many other moderate Brexiteers tried to popularise before the referendum. It is now part of the Brexit lexicon, but not enough people have taken it on board. We should not be mere months away from our EU membership expiring and still considering leaving without a deal.
‘No deal is better than a bad deal’ simply isn’t true, as the advocates of ‘no deal’ almost invariably prove, albeit unwittingly, by saying ‘no deal’ will actually be softened by a series of, er… deals. One might consider it a necessary threat for difficult, often adversarial negotiations, but it’s a bit like shouting, ‘stop, or I’ll shoot…. Myself in the head!’. Yes, a no deal situation would be terrible for the EU, and I think its potential rippling consequences are often underestimated, but the pain would be felt most in the UK.
In any case, the threat was never backed up by any real action. If the government was serious about no deal it would have taken action immediately. That would mean investing in the road network approaching the ports, widening the M20, building lorry parks and all kinds of other emergency actions that would be necessary to mitigate the consequences of a breakdown in trade. Even then the UK would still suffer immediate and long lasting economic harm.
It would have been far more sensible to immediately start the process striking a conciliatory and reassuring tone with the EU and opening up discussions on how to deliver Brexit sensibly. Perhaps the government could have proposed an alternative to the inadequate Article 50 process, opting instead for managed negotiations and secession by treaty. If that was point blank refused, then Article 50 notification should have been delayed until policy could be formulated and proper planning had taken place. But alas, Brexit has been handled with absolute incompetence from day one, with the Prime Minister frequently getting the strategy, tone and messaging badly wrong.
Let me be clear about this, if I’d been given a vision of the future in 2016 and told that 5 months before EU membership ends there would be this level of risk of no deal, I would not have voted to leave. We should therefore support appealing for an extension of Article 50 negotiations over allowing ‘no deal’ to happen.
Brexit should be considered a process, not an event, because the only way of ending or changing the entire political, legal and regulatory framework the UK has with its 27 closest neighbours and most important trading partner, is in a managed way, in phases, over time. For that entire framework to be dismantled overnight can only be disastrous and stupid. That’s what every industry is telling the government, along with nearly all economists and trade experts. It’s time to listen and act accordingly.
It should be considered utter madness that the Cabinet have been discussing plans to charter ships to bring in emergency food and medicines in the event of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. It’s all very well and good saying ‘we survived WWII’, but this isn’t a war, it’s an avoidable act of national self-harm that will have unpredictable political consequences. The only people who actively want this to happen are a small band of ignorant, dogmatic politicians, a minority of eccentric economists and commentators and, of course, Labour’s disaster socialists who predict they can use the political fallout out to swoop in and implement their policy agenda.
The report from the National Audit Office on no deal preparation underlines the fact that it is far too late to plan for no deal and properly mitigate the fallout: border systems will not function in time; the infrastructure to cope with this scenario simply isn’t there; British business isn’t remotely prepared; no government department is adequately prepared; and there is no proper plan on what to do on the Irish border.
Quite simply, a deal must be reached. The withdrawal agreement will form the basis of the future framework, an Association Agreement between the UK and the EU. Although the withdrawal agreement will undoubtedly come with certain obligations, the shape of the Association Agreement is still very much up for grabs. That is to say, the next stage of negotiations is far more important for deciding what the EU-UK partnership will look like and how it will work. Please let’s stop this madness, pass the deal and allow the negotiations, and the debate, to move on.
Those politicians actively considering voting down the deal because of one objection or another, and eyeing up a ‘no deal’ exit, are being grossly irresponsible. The economic and political fallout could potentially herald a Corbyn government and may even lead to a desperate UK returning to the EU with a begging bowl. That cannot be allowed to happen.