Okay … forget about the backstop. Forget about the May Deal. And absolutely definitely, forget about No Deal. It’s time – always assuming that a second referendum is ruled out – to think about the fallback. It’s called the European Economic Area (EEA), incorporating the European Free Trade Association (Efta), or the Norway Option for short.
The EEA is made up of all 27/28 member states of the EU plus the four Efta states (Norway, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and Iceland) that have opted to be part of the Single Market. Switzerland – a permanent member of the Awkward Squad – is not technically a member of the EEA but has negotiated an ever-lengthening list of treaties that amount largely to the same thing. Efta, it should be noted, has its own mini-court, based in Luxembourg, which operates in conjunction with the ECJ to identify and resolve possible conflicts. Efta’s secretariat, however, is located in Geneva, just down the road from the headquarters of the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
If Britain leaves the European Union but remains a member of the EEA, the following happens:
• We would no longer be bound by the Common Agriculture Policy (supported by our farmers) and Common Fisheries Policy (opposed by our fishermen) and would not have to pay a penny into either budget.
• We would no longer participate in the EU’s regional development or international development programmes and would not contribute to their budgets.
• Environmental controls would be repatriated in their entirety from Brussels to Michael Gove’s office in Whitehall.
• We would not be involved against our will in any moves towards a common European army.
• We would remain free to continue our participation in or membership of such shared institutions and programmes as Europol, the European Arrest Warrant, Euratom, Galileo, Erasmus and the European Space Agency.
• We would not be required to join the Eurozone and adopt the single Currency – exactly as is the case today.
• The Irish border question would be eased, though it would not disappear completely.
• We would not (as is already the case) have to join the Schengen Zone that provides for open borders across the EU.
• But our citizens, armed only with a British passport, would be entitled, as now, to join EU/EEA lines at ports and airports and would be allowed to move freely across all 32 states.
• Britain would be permanently exempt (as already promised to David Cameron) from the policy of Ever Closer Union.
On the other hand:
• We would no longer be involved in EU decision-making.
• Our prime minister would no longer have a seat on the ruling European Council.
• We would no longer have a seat on the European Commission.
• We would be bound by rulings of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in respect of those treaties and programmes to which we sign up.
• We would no longer appoint a British judge or advocate general to the ECJ.
• We would relinquish our 73 seats in the increasingly powerful European Parliament.
Crucially, we would remain subject to the EU’s “four freedoms,” providing for the free movement of labour, goods, services and capital within the Single Market. Goods would flow freely. There would be no hold-ups at Dover, or anywhere else, and the City of London would retain its multi-billion pound passport into the Eurozone. EU citizens in the UK, as well as British citizens in Europe, would continue to enjoy existing rights and privileges, including a virtually unrestricted right of residence.
Only No Deal would cancel all of the above.
If the UK, post-Brexit, decides, to adopt the Jeremy Corbyn line of remaining a member of “a” Customs Union as well as the Single Market, the Northern Irish backstop would vanish and people, goods and services, including smuggled cigarettes, would continue to move uninterrupted across the Irish border. The indications are that even Arlene Foster, the leader of the DUP, is moving towards support for this position. The obvious downside is that Liam Fox would have to forego his right to negotiate “brilliant” independent trade deals with the rest of the world. Instead, negotiations would, as now, be the sole responsibility of the hugely-experienced trade directorate of the European Commission, which within the last 18 months has agreed significant deals with Japan, Canada and Indonesia to add to the hundreds already concluded or awaiting signature. Britain would be consulted by Brussels as issues arose, but disputes on the European side would be resolved by the ECJ, on which the UK would no longer be represented.
Given that Britain is a major European country, unlike, say, Liechtenstein, it would make sense for Brussels to agree to the UK appointing its own, non-voting advocate-general to the ECJ, whose job would be to consider and advise the court on issues directly affecting Britain. But this might be a step too far. If you’re not a member of the club, you don’t get to sit on the committee.
In summary, the UK, as a member of the EEA, would save billions of pounds each year in budget contributions to the EU, allowing it to rescue the NHS from bankruptcy and to pursue its own revolutionary farm and fisheries policies. Michael Gove would be free to power up Green Britain and the Navy might finally be allowed the cash to buy planes for its aircraft carriers. Otherwise, life would go on pretty much as now.
Alternatively, of course, we could remain within the European Union and argue for the reforms that, over time, would make it the kind of club of which even Jacob Rees-Mogg would wish to be a member. But allow me to apologise at once for my presumption as, clearly, that would be too silly for words.