Six months to go – are you ready yet?
For some, Brexit equates to liberation, independence, freedom, and the promised land. For others, it is looming disaster, a catastrophe, the end of modern Britain as we know it.
Either way, the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union is not far off. It is now just six months away. Ignore the growing chatter about delay, reversing the decision, second referendums. Forget it; delay will not happen. In six months we will have left the EU and for better or for worse we will be on our own, charting our own course. The Prime Minister, Theresa May, may or may not agree a deal with Brussels and she may or may not be successful in persuading Parliament to approve it. I think she will do both, but whether she does or doesn’t we are out.
One of the oddest features of the discussion about Brexit since the referendum has been the emphasis on trade and business as though that is all that matters. To listen to politicians and the media coverage one could be forgiven for thinking that Brexit was all about improving the business environment and trading opportunities, but there is not now nor has there ever been any evidence that such opportunities exist. It is the Brexiteers greatest and most successful sucker punch, a feint, that has completely taken in government and commentators alike.
Business, on the whole, apart from a handful of billionaires who on the whole are domiciled carefully for tax purposes and seem to have their production lines overseas, seems to be strongly opposed to Brexit. Among small, medium or large companies there is widespread and real concern. Ministers, Conservative ministers, are increasingly rude about business and its leaders. It is a feeling which is increasingly reciprocated. The relationship between government and the business world that is meant to be unleashing and empowering is distinctly strained.
Meanwhile, employment is at its highest levels ever. This would suggest the economy is strong and workers are needed. Wages are rising.
But Germany makes even more, trades even more, and exports even more than we do – all from inside the European Union. Why can they do so well and we can’t. What is holding us back? Poor productivity? A lack of skills and training? The willingness of the workforce? The effectiveness of management? Probably some of all these things. Whatever the reason is, it is not because we are members of the European Union.
Yet the great Brexit myth that has developed on both sides is that it is all about business and trade. It isn’t. Brexit is about something significantly more interesting and exciting – it is about who runs the country and how we do it. There is more to Brexit than trade deals and employment regulation.
Brexit is – if it is to work – going to require a major shift in the political process, and an increase in participation in a way many of us are not used to doing on a regular basis. We should not just leave it to others to do the hard work. Momentum has seized its moment and taken control of Labour, ironically with echoes of the way Tony Blair did a generation before by increasing the membership.
Some in the Conservative parliamentary party have already spotted that Brexit could be used as a way of levering the incumbent from No 10 and seizing their moment. A much bigger post-Brexit regeneration of the Tory party is needed – changing leaders is not a magic answer.
Brexit is a big event in the evolution of our democracy. It is a moment that demands that far more of us step up and participate.