Brexit: What the hell happens now?

In the last week a number of significant votes have complicated the UK’s exit from the EU. Speaker John Bercow’s intervention yesterday frustrated the route even further. But, May still has options.

How did we get here and where does May go next?

May’s Brexit deal was voted down in parliament for a second time. Despite securing the “legally binding” changes to the backstop – touted as a necessary condition for the likes of the DUP to support the deal – the deal still failed by 149 votes. Attorney General Geoffrey Cox’s legal advice, published on the morning of the vote, all but killed the possibility that Meaningful Vote 2.0 could ever succeed. Cox warned that, despite the changes May secured with Donald Tusk et al., there was still the risk that the UK could be trapped in the backstop with no way out, something the ERG and DUP could never support.

In the following two days MPs then voted on a series of propositions. MPs voted to rule out a no-deal Brexit (only after an hour of mayhem and parliamentary skirmishes), and then MPs voted to extend Article 50. Neither vote changed anything in legal terms, but they indicated the political will of the House: MPs don’t want a no deal exit, and they think the UK needs more time to get its house in order.

That meant late last week May was left in the following position: She needed to win over the requisite votes for her deal, and she needed to ask the EU for an extension to Article 50. She could be slightly comforted by the rejection of no deal, too.

To win over the necessary votes May, Number 10 officials and Chancellor Philip Hammond held a series of talks with the DUP. Suspicions were raised that Hammond may have offered the DUP money for Northern Ireland in exchange for support. But, the DUP’s position remained intractable. When it comes to the backstop, something had to change.

In terms of the extension to Article 50, May needed to work out the length of extension she would request, and worry over whether the EU would even grant her one in the first place. She could ask for a short extension to win more time to pass her deal, or if her deal were to pass, to win more time to get the necessary legislation through. Or, she could seek a long extension (possibly over a year) to completely rethink strategy.

Despite facing tricky choices, MPs voting for an extension opened a clear(ish) path for May. The hope was probably along the lines of this: With the threat of a long extension to Article 50, which could lead to a soft Brexit, no Brexit, or even a general election, it should have been enough to frighten the ERGers and DUP into swallowing their pride and voting for the deal the third time around. A bad deal may not be better than no deal in their minds, but any deal is better than no Brexit.

But on Monday Bercow scuppered even this vague hope of the deal passing – by refusing to allow May to put it up for a vote at all. Invoking a 17th-century precedent, one that hasn’t been used by a speaker for at least 100 years, Bercow said May could not put her deal back to the house again without a “substantial” change. Whatever “substantial” might mean, May faces a simple problem: The EU has made it clear that the Withdrawal Agreement is not up for renegotiating. So, what change (substantial or not) can May possibly secure?

What on earth happens now?

There are three options for May to worm her way out of the latest impasse.

While the Withdrawal Agreement is not up for renegotiation, the non-legally binding Political Declaration on the UK-EU “future relationship” is. It is possible that if May were to secure changes to this Bercow could allow the vote to be put back to the House.

The second option, first raised by Jacob Rees-Mogg, would require May suspending parliament before starting a new “sitting.” Bercow said May could not put the same question to the House in the same sitting. So, by suspending the House and starting a new sitting – or, turning parliament off and on again – May could use that as a mechanism to secure a third vote.

Lastly, and most likely at this stage, the Commons could vote to overturn Bercow’s ruling. MPs could vote on whether they should be allowed to vote on the deal, essentially. If the prime minister believes she has a majority for her deal then she will certainly have a majority to override Bercow’s decision. If she does not have a majority for her deal then there is no point in even attempting to have MPs override the ruling. If she decides to hold the vote on holding Meaningful Vote 3 it should tell us whether the deal stands a chance. If she cannot win that vote then the deal stood no chance anyway.

As for the arithmetic – the government needs to win over the 10 DUP MPs and then enough Labour MPs to account for the Tory intractables who won’t vote for May’s deal under any circumstances.

All of this is happening as May is gearing up to attend European Council on Thursday evening. She will ask the EU for an extension, to which all 27 member states have to agree unanimously. We know she will request an extension until at least 30th of June. But today, the UK cabinet continued its disintegration, with a row over the length of the timeframe. Now, Brexiteer cabinet ministers might walk out.

The EU are also in a sticky situation. Each member state has a veto over granting an extension. There is a possibility that one member may use its veto power as leverage over Brussels for entirely unrelated issues.

May’s greatest hope lies in being granted a short extension, which she can use to find a way to put her deal to the House again (and again, if necessary). At that point, runs the theory, the hardline Brexiteers may be frightened by the prospect of a softened Brexit, or no Brexit at all, and concede to supporting the deal. Remainers may be unsettled by being driven to a cliff-edge and then a no-deal Brexit, and concede to supporting the deal. However, what will frighten Remain MPs about a no-deal Brexit will embolden the hopes of the hardline Brexiteers.

What, via misunderstanding and double bluff on all sides, could possibly go wrong? Quite a lot. Only nine days until Brexit.