Brexit crisis heading for a stand up for bullied Britain moment
The Chequers proposal (mistakenly termed a deal, when the EU has not publicly responded let alone agreed to such terms) was the culmination of Theresa May and Number 10’s deliberate strategy run by Olly Robbins, the mandarin in charge of negotiations with Brussels.
That the strategy has now gone very badly wrong, and is left lying in ruins, is obvious. Where Chequers ten days ago was supposed to unite the bulk of the governing party, it has ended up pleasing hardly anyone beyond the few remaining loyalists. But I suspect the grave implications of the failure of the Robbins strategy and its collision with Tory politics are not yet fully understood. For some time it has been clear that the chances of an accidental “no deal” are rising, because of a combination of EU tactics, the Commission’s fatal misreading of British politics based on too many visits from Nick Clegg et al, and British incompetence and failure to arrive at an agreed position. UK politics is now on course for an almighty smash.
With politicians frazzled, and everyone needing a holiday, the situation is fast-moving. No-one needs another long essay on what to do about customs. Instead, here, I’ll simply attempt to map out quickly what I’m hearing and provide observations on the key themes. And then finish by saying why – without a shift – the logic of base, grubby politics is speeding the UK and the EU to a messy break up and a no deal outcome in which I think ultra-Remainers underestimate the potential for a backlash.
May can’t communicate, trust is gone.
When Tim Shipman, the Sunday Times political editor, asked May if she had considered addressing the nation to explain and sell her Chequers plan she looked at him as though he was mad. Others had urged her to do it, to go on TV and look down the camera lens and explain why compromise was necessary, why it was this far and no further, and to attempt to bring people together. Only yesterday, too late, did May get round to doing a proper media interview, and that was defined by a (justified) pot shot at Donald Trump rather than a clear explanation of why she has changed her mind on key aspects of Brexit and needs support..
From the start, May has had a tin ear for salesmanship. When she should have been generous and welcoming to EU citizens, she made them a bargaining chip.
Worse, the way in which May enabled the civil service to run the Brexit policy – surrendering time and again, disgracefully not preparing a no deal fall back in case, getting kippered on the Irish border, not explaining – seems to be crystallising in the minds of Tory MPs and activists. May did this, which could make many of them unlikely to believe any current or future assurances.
Tory anger – among more than just the usual suspects – seems to run deep.
Shifting sentiment is always difficult to assess particularly within political parties. Confirmation bias applies. MPs can be guilty of, in City terminology, talking their own book, that is editing what they hear and then saying that out in the country there is a surge of opinion that corresponds with their favoured direction. But MPs returning to their seats at the weekend and actually talking to people (canvassing constituents, asking activists, being berated by family and friends) is one of the best aspects of our parliamentary system. If there are any MPs out there who have been struck by the support of Chequers on the ground in the last 72 hours, please feel free to get in touch. Scottish Tory MP Paul Masterton says membership of his local Tory association has gone up since Chequers, although no figures are as yet available.
Indeed, personally, as a hack trying to make sense of it and listening to MPs and observing their pronouncements on social media, I have been taken aback by the response to Chequers, a settlement which I expected would receive a pragmatic hearing. Country in a tight spot. Not ideal, but no alternative, and all that. Many Tory MPs and voters seem to be in a very dark mood. I’ve now had three ministers point out that a confidence vote for the party leadership would be a secret ballot, indicating they would vote against May.
Public opinion will count in what comes next, a lot.
This is the great unknowable. How will the public react later this year to a breakdown in talks or to insulting terms as the EU takes Chequers and waters it down?
Remain-voting friends we visited at the weekend were robust. They would vote to leave now, because of the way the EU has behaved, they said. Again, there I expected a pragmatic response to Chequers. Nope.
Anecdotes are simply that, of course, and the polling is confused. The poll at the weekend which showed the Tories down six points and UKIP up five points, is only one poll. But if that trend is maintained, with UKIP rising or the emergence of a new force funded by Vote Leave donor money and disaffected Tories, it will upend the Tories. They don’t need to win seats, they just need to split the vote. The last time that happened it prompted David Cameron to hold a referendum and led to the largest vote for anything in British electoral history.
It is possible that a bored public will shrug off retreat and accept endless transition to nowhere. I don’t know and you – Brexiteer or Remainer – don’t know either. How the public reacts will be crucial though, because it will influence the thinking of MPs in marginal and not so marginal seats. Public opinion will make the weather.
Tory Remainer MPs are small in number, badly divided and several have completely lost the plot.
The behaviour and tactics of Tory Remainers (a small band in the Commons, with influence because of the Tory party’s lack of a majority) needed to be unified and right on the money if they wanted to achieve their stated aim – to help Theresa May get through a softish Brexit, that is the Chequers plan. Instead, they are split. Anna Soubry defended Chequers but now says she backs the “people’s vote” – best of three referenda or every four years like the World Cup, I say – while ambitious Nicky Morgan says the Tories have to stay unified. Sure. How?
Meanwhile, Justine Greening has devised a second referendum, with multiple choice and second preference based on the AV model of voting that was rejected three to one by voters in the AV referendum. ITV political editor Robert Peston writes that this proposal has “tempted” Tories. How many? I counted them up and got to four. Anyone got more than four?
The European Commission still thinks it is negotiating with Olly Robbins.
The Robbins approach was to close down the possibility of “no deal” and then move to a pragmatic settlement and ever more concessions. The Prime Minister allowed officials to direct policy, it seems, which is constitutionally dangerous. It seemed clever, for a while. Now, not so much. A lot of Tory MPs seem to have woken up to what has been done. Even the Withdrawal Agreement and the formulation on the Irish border looks pretty shaky, without urgent movement by the EU. Instead, the EU position is to get its £39bn, lock the UK in transition and then over several years negotiate a really terrible deal for the UK. This is not going to survive contact with UK politics.
Simultaneously, the trade nerds and myopic EU Commission types fiddling around, convinced of the EU’s power, still fail to see the big picture on Western collective security with NATO under pressure from Trump. A messy break with Europe’s leading security and intelligence power, the UK, seems not like a good idea in that context. Will Trump meeting Putin in Helsinki wake them up? Doesn’t look like it.
Where does all this go?
Such is the strange atmosphere, public boredom and bafflement mixed with political class meltdown, that I suspect – only suspect – that we are approaching a moment at which the choices crystallise and brutal common sense is applied by the public. May has tried (badly) to compromise and yet even that is turned down or manipulated by the EU. We have to get on and leave or ask to get back in again. Hint, we should leave.
The premium will then be on leadership and speaking for Britain, that is saying we have had enough of this, need to get on with the result of the referendum and have been through worse. Boris had his usual shaggy dog story go at this in his return to the Telegraph today, but having fluffed his spell as Foreign Secretary so badly it doesn’t look like such leadership can come from him, ever.
There is a vacuum and a major political opportunity. Someone in the Commons is going to have to stand up and lead.