Boris’s new deal gives the PM a win-win situation

So a deal has been struck, after an overnight breakthrough ahead of today’s meeting of European Council leaders in Brussels.

An unusually cheerful Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, has given his approval: “Where there is a will, there is a deal – we have one.”

European Council President, Donald Tusk, has written to the EU’s 27 member states recommending the deal to the European Parliament: “It is high time to complete the withdrawal process and move on, as swiftly as possible, to the negotiation on the European Union’s future partnership with the United Kingdom.”

A cock-a-hoop Boris Johnson gave his blessing too: “We’ve got a great new deal that takes back control – now Parliament should get Brexit done on Saturday so we can move on to other priorities like the cost of living, the NHS, violent crime and our environment.”

In a snap picture from No 10, the proposed divorce agreement between Britain and the European Union means that the UK is out of all the EU’s laws, ranging from product standards to farming subsidies. This means the UK can now make changes to existing regulations and takes us out of the European Court of Justice. Here are the full details of the political declaration.

The pound soared on news of the deal, rising to $1.29 and edging up slightly against the euro. Traders predict the pound could climb to as high as $1.35 and that share prices will soar if and when a deal is approved by the Commons which is due to hold an emergency sitting on Saturday.

But that’s the rub, and Johnson’s challenge. Northern Ireland’s DUP remains opposed to the proposed agreement which means it is by no means clear that it will be passed by a majority of MPs when Parliament sits for an emergency session on Saturday.

By removing the much-hated Northern Irish backstop, Johnson hoped he would bring onside the more extreme Brexiteers in the ERG and the DUP. He has the ERG but not yet the DUP despite the EU giving significant concessions on the border issue. According to Michel Barnier, the EU’s negotiator, the four big changes are that Northern Ireland will remain aligned to a limited set of EU rules, notably related to goods, and that Northern Ireland will remain in the UK’s customs territory, but will “remain an entry point” into the EU’s single market.

There is also agreement to maintain the integrity of the single market and satisfy the UK’s legitimate wishes over VAT and, a new and controversial element, Northern Ireland representatives will be able to decide whether to continue applying union rules in Northern Ireland or not every four years. This has been adapted so that the decision is to be based on a simple majority, rather than requiring a majority of both unionists and nationalists to support the rules in order for them to pass.

But the DUP, which gives the government 10 of its votes in a confidence and supply agreement, still has problems over the consent issue although hopes are growing that this can be solved by the time the agreement reaches the Commons.

Also against him are most Labour, Lib Dem and SNP MPs and they are unlikely to budge. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has instructed his MPs to oppose the deal while many of the 21 Tory rebels are also understood to be voting against. Labour is now pushing for a second referendum to put any deal to a confirmatory vote which would scupper Johnson’s plans. However, up to 20 Labour MPs – including Stephen Kinnock and Caroline Flint – may defy Labour’s leader and vote with the government. They may also vote against a second referendum.

Johnson will still need a majority of the Tory rebels to come on side if he is to get the deal through. He may get around half of them by restoring the whip. But the more intransigent MPs like Philip Hammond, the former Chancellor who lost the whip, has warned he may vote against the deal if the political declaration suggests a “hard Brexit.” He also suggested he may vote for a second referendum. However, the political declaration rather suggests a much softer Brexit so it will be interesting to see how Hammond and Co respond.

Whatever the outcome of Saturday’s vote, however, Johnson’s high-stakes gamble of pushing all sides to get a deal ahead of the Halloween deadline will pay off for him personally, and indeed, for his own electoral chances when there is a general election.

By getting this far with the EU, he has hedged his bets brilliantly and shown that he was serious about getting a deal. Some might suggest it was the point of his “do or die” strategy all along: a cynical but clever move. By forcing all sides to come to the table – and getting changes to the backstop – he has effectively bypassed the Benn Act which stops the government from leaving without a deal. He has also demonstrated that he does want to leave in a smooth manner.

But if Parliament blocks his proposal – or pushes through a vote for a second confirmatory referendum – the Prime Minister can show that he has done his best and has been forced into requesting an extension for more talks. That Parliament has blocked the “will of the people.” Either way, it’s a win-win situation for Johnson. As his hero, Pericles, is said to have said: “It is more of a disgrace to be robbed of what one has than to fail in some new undertaking”.

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