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The Prime Minister and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet in Brussels in the coming days for a face-to-face showdown as trade talks near collapse. In a joint statement following an almost two hour long call, the two leaders said: “We asked our Chief Negotiators and their teams to prepare an overview of the remaining differences to be discussed in a physical meeting in Brussels in the coming days.”
Despite their long chat, the pair made no progress in the three areas that have held up the talks for nine months: the level playing field, governance and fisheries.
Downing Street made clear, in a briefing to journalists shortly after the call, that it is becoming increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for a deal. “Talks are in the same position now as they were on Friday,” a government source said. “We have made no tangible progress. It’s clear this must now continue politically. Whilst we do not consider this process to be closed, things are looking very tricky and there’s every chance we are not going to get there.”
The clock is ticking, with the final EU Council summit of the year due to begin this Thursday. If EU leaders do not have a draft treaty by then, they may go full speed ahead with no deal planning. By suggesting “this must now continue politically”, the UK side seems to have given up on the technocratic negotiating process and is betting that, when faced with the reality of no deal, the leaders of the 27 member states will buckle.
That is a big and seemingly desperate gamble.
These negative briefings may just be part of the government’s negotiating tactics. And the hope is that the upcoming “physical meeting” will make it easier to do a deal.
Johnson and von der Leyen will have far more capacity to make concessions than their negotiating teams had. The British side has been deeply frustrated with the extremely tight mandate EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier was given by the member states, which hamstrung the negotiations from the very beginning. And rather than the mundane, technocratic meetings that have characterised the talks, this will be an exciting clash of personalities.
Walking into the meeting, Johnson will know that von der Leyen, an alumni of the London School of Economics who fell in love with Camden’s music stores, is an Anglophile who aligns more with Angela Merkel’s conciliatory approach to Brexit than Emmanuel Macron’s de Gaulle tribute act. She won’t give away the house, but she may be open to fudges that could, in future, be open to reinterpretation by creative British lawyers.
The Europeans will know that Johnson has a desire to impress whoever is standing in front of him. Close observers of his long political career have noted that, for all his outward confidence, the Prime Minister can be easily swayed by a friendly voice, and easily unnerved by a critical one. This will have Conservative Brexiteers worried.
Johnson has only rarely been to Brussels since becoming Prime Minister – his team being hyper aware of the disrespect displayed towards Theresa May at various summits. But the optics for him this week will be favourable: flying into battle in Brussels having held out to the final moment and confronting an EU president face-to-face.
The question is, will Johnson fly back declaring no deal, or will he wave a draft treaty at the cameras on the tarmac of Heathrow Airport?
Vaccinations begin tomorrow
The UK will tomorrow become the first western nation to begin mass vaccinations, with around 800,000 doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine becoming available to elderly people who are in the process of being discharged from hospital, as well as those already attending hospital as an outpatient.
Others over the age of 80 will also be invited to hospitals to be vaccinated and care home providers will be able to book appointments for their residents and staff.
Among those eligible this week will be the Queen. When asked whether Her Majesty would be vaccinated by next Monday, Downing Street refused to comment – but regardless of the exact timing, it’s widely anticipated that the Queen will be vaccinated by the time she gives her Christmas speech, when she is expected to announce that she’s taken the jab.
Before then, we see politicians being vaccinated on live television, with polls showing that such acts would be mildly popular. Health Secretary Matt Hancock has – of course – already committed himself to doing this, although the timing remains unclear.
Manchester bomber’s brother admits full involvement
Hashem Abedi has for the first time admitted his involvement in the planning of the Manchester Arena attack, in which his brother’s suicide bombing killed 22 people and injured hundreds more. Abedi was jailed in 2017 for aiding the murder the victims, but had denied his involvement throughout the trial.
Abedi originally claimed that he did not hold extremist views and had been “shocked” by his brother’s actions, but today a public inquiry into the bombing was told that Abedi admitted to his full involvement in prison last month.
In an interview with inquiry lawyers, Abedi acknowledged that he had “played a full part and a knowing part in the planning and preparation for the arena attack,” the court heart.
Figen Murray, who lost her son Martyn in the attack, said “it would have been more bearable for us all if he told the truth” during the trial three years ago, adding: “We wanted that chapter behind us and focus our energies on the inquiry which continues to be a gruelling and long process.”
Mutaz Ahmed, Political Reporter