Boris starts the blame game

Ahead of the crucial European Council next week, where the government will learn whether it will leave the EU with a deal on 31st October, No 10 has gone on the offensive. Boris Johnson’s proposals, which would form the basis of the deal, for the Irish border were confirmed to be all but dead in the water by key European power players, and negotiations are said to have stalled.

Last night an anonymous No 10 aide sent a lengthy text to the Spectator containing the government’s position on the negotiations, and after a phone call between Angela Merkel and Boris Johnson this morning, a No 10 spokesperson said a deal looked “overwhelmingly unlikely.”

That Johnson’s proposals were unlikely to form the basis of a Brexit deal should not come as a surprise. Leo Varadkar was clear last week that the plans inadequately addressed the Irish border question, and handed the DUP an undue veto over the entire arrangements. When Macron waded in to the discussion, with raised eyebrows, any hopes a deal could be struck were scuppered.

The No 10 text message last night accused Leo Varadkar of going “back on his word” by attacking the proposals rather than using them as a basis for further negotiation. He was also criticised for pulling the strings of Michel Barnier – the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator. Crucially, the message made clear that if the Irish government WAS to return soon with an alternate proposal – a Northern Ireland only backstop, with a time limit (stop me if you’ve heard this one before…) – it would be rejected by No 10 and that would be the end of the matter.

The key message, then, is that these really are the UK’s final proposals… If the EU don’t want a deal then on its head be it. But it is not that simple: Johnson secured his tenure in No 10 by committing to taking to UK out of the EU “deal or no deal”, “come what may” by 31st October. But since the Benn Act was passed just two weeks ago he is mandated to seek an extension in lieu of striking a deal. As such, Johnson is in a bind. He won’t get a deal this month, and so will have to seek an extension. How can he avoid, then, reneging on his central campaign promise?

Obviously for No 10, the easiest way out of the quagmire is if the EU denies Johnson an extension, and kicks him out with no deal, a hard border, and everything that comes along with that at the end of this month. In this vein, the anonymous aide behind the message wrote that any EU member state which vetoes an extension will be given preferential treatment in the next stage of negotiations, and vice versa.

Whether that was a threat, or a bribe, what the message fails to grasp is that any decision taken by the EU Council on an extension will be a unanimous one. So this text message fails to change anything tangible when it comes to negotiations. But it is directed at something else entirely.

It is becoming increasingly clear that Johnson will have to delay Brexit. Not wanting to look weak, out of the playbook of his predecessor Theresa May, when Johnson has to come knocking for that extension, he wants to look like he was forced into it. His conversation with Angela Merkel this morning plays directly into that same narrative.

Merkel, a No 10 spokesman claims, said on the phone that a deal was “overwhelmingly unlikely” until Northern Ireland stayed in the customs union. While Merkel’s office have not released a readout of the conversation, saying they do not comment on confidential phone calls, there is a lot of speculation about No 10’s interpretation of events – with many commentators in Brussels and the UK alike surprised to hear that Merkel would adopt a tone many miles away from her usual diplomatic-to-a-fault style.

The blame game is underway, and the UK has tried to get a head start. An extension, with an election where the Tories run on a no-deal Brexit platform, seems to be the most likely outcome at this stage. For that to work Johnson wants to avoid looking like he’s given in to parliament, and come begging to the EU for an extension. It has to look like the fault of both the EU, who refused to negotiate with him in good faith, and parliament, who got in his way when he tried to deliver the Brexit people in the UK so desperately want… so the theory goes.

But Johnson’s tactics haven’t been lost on his opponents. President of the European Council Donald Tusk tweeted today:

“What’s at stake is not winning some stupid blame game. At stake is the future of Europe and the UK as well as the security and interests of our people.”

While Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer said that Johnson “will never take responsibility for his own failure to put forward a credible deal”, calling on parliament to “unite prevent this reckless government crashing us out of the EU”.

A far greater headache for Boris, though, is that his own Northern Ireland Secretary Julian Smith has been distancing himself from the events of today. Referring to what some see as veiled threat in the No 10 text message, Smith tweeted:

“I am clear that any threat on withdrawing security cooperation with Ireland is unacceptable. This is not in the interest of NI or the Union.”

Some are speculating Smith may resign over these developments, which would be a blow to Johnson whose first week in office was spent eviscerating the current cabinet to make way for an ideologically compatible grouping who would work as a coherent bloc.

But despite this, Johnson is currently soaring in the polls. His hardline tactics have been paying off – and there is no reason to think that the news from today will be any different. Johnson might not get his 31st October exit date, but if things continue going this way the UK might well end up with a no deal exit anyway. His job is to make it look like it was anyone’s fault but his.