Boris leaves the nation guessing… again

Boris Johnson has left the nation second guessing just how much the spread of the Indian variant is troubling the government. 

When asked today if the rising cases of the B.1.617.2 strain could block our path to freedom on 21 June, the PM said: “I don’t see anything conclusive at the moment to say that we need to deviate from the roadmap.” 

He added, “We will know a lot more in a few days’ time.”

The PM’s words are ambiguous. Some have interpreted them as optimistic, others say his tone is much more serious than last week, when he said he was feeling very positive about the prospect of fully unlocking in June.

Johnson says the government needs a few more days to assess the true threat posed by the Indian variant – to study data emerging from virus hotspots such as Bolton, Blackburn and Bedford. 

But what exactly is the PM hoping will come to light by the end of the week? 

All of the evidence so far suggests vaccines will remain effective against the Indian variant when it comes to preventing serious illness.

The government is still trying to work out the extent to which the new variant is more transmissible, which remains unclear.

On Friday, Sage’s prediction that the Indian strain could be 50 per cent more transmissible than the Kent strain raised alarm bells. But John Bell, professor of medicine at Oxford University, says the “50 per cent more transmissible hypothesis was based on pretty limited data.” 

There are other factors too, aside from innate transmissibility advantage, which could be causing B.1.617.2 to outcompete the Kent strain. 

According to the FT’s John Burn-Murdoch: “One possibility is that the contrast between very, very low rates of the virus in early April, vs the sheer volume of cases imported from India, caused travel-linked clusters to have an outsized impact on overall rates.”

If so, Sage’s 50 per cent figure could be far too gloomy. 

In any case, the announcement in the next few days should make it clearer where the government stands.

Biden toughens up on Israel, slightly

As the death toll in Gaza surpasses 200, President Biden has, for the first time, issued a statement expressing support for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

In a phone call this afternoon, Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US is working with countries including Egypt to halt the hostilities. 

This appears to be a change of tack. Only yesterday, the US blocked – for the third time in a week – a joint UN security council statement calling for an end to Israeli-Palestinian violence.

But Biden’s apparent U-turn isn’t as dramatic as it might seem.

The President stopped short of calling for an immediate halt to the escalating series of rocket attacks and air strikes.

After the call, the White House issued a statement saying Biden had “encouraged Israel to make every effort to ensure the protection of innocent civilians.” But, it added, “the President reiterated his firm support for Israel’s right to defend itself against indiscriminate rocket attacks.”

Biden is a traditional pro-Israel Democrat. When it comes to air wars with Palestinian militants, some analysts believe he is following a familiar pattern. 

Recent US administrations have tended to stop short of publicly condemning Israeli aerial assaults during the early days of an attack, allowing time for Israel to take out infrastructure and target militants.

Yet if the death toll continues to rise, the calculus can change, with the US more likely to use its leverage over the Israeli government to bring an end to hostilities. 

How Biden chooses to proceed will show just how serious he is about keeping Israel in line.

Nature’s net-zero

Wildlife groups are celebrating an important milestone today after the government laid out a new set of legally binding targets to “halt the decline of nature.” 

George Eustice, the environment secretary, has announced £500m to fund a tripling of tree planting in England by 2024.

A species reintroduction taskforce has been unveiled, which will dedicate its time to recovering species lost to England, such as wildcats and beavers.

The government is also banning the sale of peat compost from 2024 onwards, in a mission to restore the country’s degraded peatlands. The UK’s peatlands are not only home to some of our rarest species, they also store three times as much carbon as our forests. 

Caitlin Allen,
Reaction Reporter