Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen in final sprint for a deal

An extra round of Brexit trade negotiations has been added to the schedule as efforts to get a deal expand. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who will hold a virtual conference with Boris Johnson tomorrow, has said the talks will “intensify” as it is “better to have a deal as neighbours, especially in times of covid, with its devastating economic consequences.” She added: “Where there’s a will there’s a way. We have made progress in many fields.”

Crucially, however, there was no mention of negotiations entering “The Tunnel”. As I reported yesterday, British officials had hoped to enter the metaphorical tunnel next week, as that is where major concessions are made and the shape of a final deal emerges. But it appears the EU is not yet prepared to begin such a process. Asked about The Tunnel, Von der Leyen suggested that the main impediment was the angst in Brussels over Britain’s state aid plans. “We’re running out of time,” she said. “If you want full access to the single market the rules must apply.”

In a sign of how fluid the talks are, observers on both sides of the Channel are now analysing the smallest signs of a shift in posture. Michel Barnier did not hold a press conference yesterday, a departure from the usual process, leaving journalists and civil servants to speculate that it implies either ongoing productive talks or major, potentially intractable disagreements. Barnier’s office insists that his schedule was simply too busy.

Signalling that it is ready for any eventuality, the British government has today offered £200 million to British ports to help them build border infrastructure as the Brexit transition comes to an end. Ports will be able to bid for money throughout October to help with customs administration from January. “Where infrastructure is not best situated at ports, the government has allocated an extra £270 million to build inland customs facilities,”  says a joint statement from the Cabinet Office (Michael Gove) and the Department for Transport (Grant Shapps).

It continues to be the case that both sides believe that a trade deal can be achieved. Adding to the Irish foreign minister’s positive comments earlier this week, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte today said he’s “cautiously optimistic” as the “geopolitical necessity” for a deal was felt in both Brussels and London.

But time is running short. The next – and seemingly final – round of talks will be the most important yet. If Brussels and London show more flexibility and creativity, talks may belatedly enter The Tunnel before the EU Council meeting on October 15, where the outstanding political issues can be hashed out. If there is continued deadlock, however, a free-fall may follow, with bitter acrimony as both sides prepare for a no trade-deal exit.

Tomorrow’s meeting between Ursula von der Leyen and Boris Johnson will be to “take stock of negotiations,” according to the Commission. Johnson’s history of striking personal deals – as he did with Leo Varadkar at Thornton Manor – suggests it could be a breakthrough moment. The pressure the Prime Minister is facing from his own backbenches over the economic impact of coronavirus, as well as scientific concerns over a potential second wave, suggest he could be willing to make a major concession to avoid adding an additional crisis to his in-tray.

We are speeding towards the end of this process. What happens in the next fortnight will shape the UK’s relationship with the EU for decades to come.