Boris has a tough call to make on his Chancellor
Boris Johnson will be Prime Minister in just over a week, barring any major catastrophe befalling the frontrunner. With his elevation close, the focus is turning to the many tricky calls he’ll have to make in his first few days in Number 10. Solving what looks like an unworkable Brexit with a barely-there majority is not the only thing on his mind.
With Amber Rudd’s recent (and cynical) conversion to no deal, Matt Hancock’s turn-face to become another media mouthpiece for Boris, and Gavin Williamson’s unofficial whipping mission for the lead candidate’s leadership pitch, it’s clear that the race for the top cabinet jobs is a key motivating factor
Appointing a cabinet is fraught with the potential for making serious errors that a new PM regrets later. And the biggest question is who Boris chooses for his Chancellor. The winner will have a vital role helping Johnson navigate a tricky Brexit.
Sajid Javid is touted as the most obvious candidate. He is a Remainer turned Brexiteer, and he succumbed to the allure of backing no deal (no matter how reluctantly) during his leadership pitch. Here’s a Chancellor who will sanction the no-deal spending Boris’s wants. As a former Managing Director at Deutsche Bank, the City will like him. He’s been both Economic and Financial Secretary to the Treasury too. And he’s certainly got more charisma than Hammond.
But a Javid Chancellorship could be dangerous for Boris. Johnson is becoming prime minister in a seismically unstable climate. It’s not unlikely that he could be ousted at the hands of some members of his own party, and another leadership election might be on the horizon, if he fails on Brexit. Javid did well in the last leadership contest – but his effective campaign kicked in too late, and he never got the numbers he needed early on in the contest. If Boris puts Javid – a competent administrator, who believes in Brexit, is widely respected in the party, and proved he can run a good leadership bid – in Number 11, is he just strengthening a serious future rival? Giving him a platform to gain the recognition he needs in the event of an impending leadership contest? Would he even be giving Javid the tools to oust Boris himself?
Meanwhile, the younger Rishi Sunak’s name has been floating around. Sunak, MP for Richmond in Yorkshire, is fast rising through the ranks of the party. Elected in 2015, he backed Brexit in 2016, and he was one of the first up-and-comers to back Boris’s leadership pitch. He demonstrated loyalty early on and has the requisite Brexiteer credentials. He’s a rising star of the party but he’s still new enough that it’s unlikely he would use the platform to mount a meaningful challenge to Boris’s premiership. Javid might look like a more suitable candidate on the surface, but Sunak could be the safe bet that Javid initially seems. However, he’s untried and untested.
It’s no secret that current Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Liz Truss, is after the job. And, current Chancellor Philip Hammond has even sort of endorsed her: “She’s really tough. I think she’d make a wonderful Chancellor.” Her appeal is obvious to many Tories – she’s bolshy, active on social media, popular with the young Tories, and is a big believer in Brexit despite backing Remain in 2016. Crucially, she will also sanction the no-deal spending Boris is after. But there are whispers she’s headed for Business Secretary.
Hancock wants the job too, but he has made several blunders during the campaign. He’s the candidate of George Osborne, which will make Boris suspicious. Team Osborne is backing Boris, a switch that comes with zero guarantees against rapid betrayal if the new PM struggles.
Although Jeremy Hunt wanted to be Chancellor, his robust – and necessary – attacks on the front-runner during the campaign have annoyed Boris’s supporters.
There may be other candidates who emerge, of course. Michael Gove could be a reforming Chancellor – although Boris does not trust him, for obvious reasons. Gove turning as Chancellor on Boris again could destroy him. Someone could easily come out of left field – don’t overlook Sir Michael Fallon as someone likely for a cabinet return in a major post.
This is the first of many tough and potentially decisive calls for Boris. Making the wrong decision on the Treasury is not a mistake Boris can afford. There is a history of the relationship between Number 10 and Number 11 going wrong and hampering a premiership. The pressure is on, and he’s not even PM yet.
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