“Blue Wave” – the battleground Senate seats that could go Democrat in 2020

While the US presidential race is dominating news headlines, the Senate races currently taking place across the country are nearly as important. While continued Democratic control of the House of Representatives is essentially a foregone conclusion, control of the upper-chamber – where Republicans currently dominate 53-47 – remains more uncertain. However, without it Joe Biden, if he were to be elected, could not hope to govern effectively. On the other hand, a re-elected Donald Trump would face renewed and relentless scrutiny from a Democrat-controlled Senate.

Traditionally, not controlling the Senate didn’t necessarily consign the White House’s agenda to failure. The independent-mindedness of the average Senator – aided by six-year terms, less polarised national politics allowing for state-level idiosyncrasies, and arcane procedure – ensured that bipartisan governance was possible, even if it required skill. Some Senators from the other party could usually be bargained and counted on to pass at least some policies.

This, however, is no longer the case. Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in particular, when he acquired his post in 2014, the year when the Republicans regaining the Senate, brought with him scorched earth tactics. These methods effectively ground the Obama agenda to a halt in its last two years. Should Democrats win the presidency but not the Senate we can expect a repeat of this.

As such, it is vital for the Democrats to gain at least three seats – with a 50-50 split, the vice-president acts as a tiebreaker. In practice, this will probably mean winning four: Doug Jones, the Democratic Senator for Alabama, looks likely to lose his contest, having only won his special election in 2018 due to Republican opponent being dogged by allegations of sexual assault, including against minors.

Even if they get this, however, the filibuster – a technique whereby Senators can block the passage of legislation by talking – means 60 votes are usually needed to pass anything. Although, the abolition of this tool, should Democrats take the house, looks increasingly likely.

Taking four seats would, under normal circumstances, be a big ask for Democrats. The large number of states that are whiter and more rural than the rest of the country gives Republicans a big structural advantage. The current Republican majority in the Senate represents 15 million fewer people than the Democratic minority.

However, if the polls are correct this year then the Democrats have a good shot. Provided below is a list of states where it will be worth keeping a close eye on the Senate races:

1) Likely Flips 

Colorado 

Cory Gardner, the Republican incumbent, looks utterly doomed in this race. Polls have shown his Democrat opponent holding a commanding lead of anywhere between to 5-18%. Only a single reputable pollster, in a September survey, has shown Gardner holding the lead.

Gardner only won his seat by a narrow margin of 1.9% in 2014 in a Republican wave that swept Congress that year. In terms of today’s GOP, he is a relative moderate who often seeks Democrat co-sponsors for bills, pushing for national parks funding and backing the legalisation of marijuana nationally (unsurprisingly, given that it is a legal and booming industry in Colorado). However, his voting record shows that he aligns closely with Trump on most issues, and this is being used as a stick to beat him with in a state where Trump is not popular.

Now, he faces a strong challenge in the form of John Hickenlooper, who was a governor of the state from 2011 to 2019. Hickenlooper was widely believed to have run a weak campaign in the Democratic primary for the seat and was accused of violating state ethics laws as governor. Still, in what looks like a Democrat wave year in a state where Biden’s lead is an average of about 14%, none of this seems to matter.

Arizona 

Arizona looks to be the second most-likely state for Democrats to pick up, with Republican incumbent Martha McSally facing a tough race in what has only relatively recently become a swing state. Most polls have shown her Democrat challenger, Mark Kelly, holding a lead of anywhere between 1-12%. Polls showing McSally eking out a small lead have been few and far between.

In blunt terms McSally is not a particularly strong candidate, while Kelly is a formidable one in this red state which is slowly becoming more purple. McSally has already narrowly lost one Senate race in Arizona in 2018. She only holds her current position because she was appointed to it in 2019 by the state’s Republican governor to fill a vacancy following the death of John McCain. Meanwhile, her attempts to ingratiate herself with Trump have wrecked her once middle-of-the-road reputation while also failing to win much enthusiasm from the man himself or his base.

Kelly, for his part, as well as being an effective campaigner has the CV of an all-American hero. He is a former astronaut and Navy captain, as well as husband to former Arizona Congresswoman Gabby Giffords who narrowly survived an assassination attempt in 2011.

Maine 

Republican incumbent Susan Collins is also in serious trouble in this traditionally blue-state. According to the polls, her opponent Sara Gideon, Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, is ahead by anywhere between 1-8%, and not a single poll has given Collins the lead since July.

In a state that has backed a Democrat for president in every election since 1984, Collins has held her seat since 1996 thanks to a reputation as a moderate Republican – socially liberal, pro-choice, and willing to break with party orthodoxy, such as when she opposed the repeal of Obamacare. This reputation was vital in helping to convince large numbers of Democrat voters to ignore her party-affiliation when it came to Senate elections.

Now, however, in a more polarised political climate, in which national-level party affiliation dominates, Collins is in trouble. Biden is expected to win the state by 14.3% and her reputation among Democrats has also taken a blow thanks to her backing for Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination the Supreme Court and perceptions that she is unwilling to stand-up to Trump.   

2) Toss-ups 

North Carolina 

In North Carolina, a potential swing state in the presidential election, Democratic candidate Cal Cunningham seems to have a lead over Republican incumbent Thom Tillis. Polls over the past two weeks have shown Cunningham holding a lead of 1-7%. A single poll showing a Tillis lead gave him a narrow 2%, and was conducted by Trafalgar Group, which tends to slant Republican in predictions.

Still, the race has narrowed after allegations of an affair served to compromise ex-Army Reservist Cunningham’s clean-cut image. The Republicans have also poured funds into what has become the most expensive Senate race in history. If it narrows further then Tillis might scrape through and keep his seat.  

Georgia 

In Georgia, not one but two Senate seats are up for grabs with a special election thanks to the resignation of Republican Senator Johnny Isakson last year due to health reasons. The regular election pits potential Democrat rising star Jon Ossof against Republican incumbent David Perdue. Polls show a tight race. Most polls seem to favour Ossof but even these suggest a tight margin of victory.

Meanwhile, in the special election, the lack of party primaries has benefitted the Democrats, with Republican voters splitting between two candidates while the Democrats have thrown their unified weight behind Raphael Warnock. Warnock might just squeak 50% and avoid a second-round run-off against whichever Republican comes out on top.

In both elections, the key for a Democratic victory will be black turnout. This means that voter suppression has featured as a key issue in this Deep Southern State, as it did in the bitter 2018 gubernatorial election.

 Iowa 

Republican incumbent and hard-line conservative Joni Ernst won her seat by 8.3% in 2014, but now she might be in trouble. While Ernst had at first seemed to be the clear favourite going into this race, her challenger Theresa Greenfield, a successful local businesswoman, has closed the gap. Polling averages show Greenfield holding a narrow lead, but the race is close enough to essentially be a toss-up.

That a Republican Senator is in peril in Iowa of all places has given some cause to expect an astonishing Blue Wave on 3 November. Like in North Carolina, hundreds of millions of dollars have been poured in as Republicans have tried vigorously to defend their home turf while the Democrats sense a chance for a dramatic upset.

Montana 

That the Democrats are competitive in this state is a function of the State’s idiosyncrasies and a strong candidate. In 2014, the Republican Steve Daines won the seat by a whopping 17.7%. Now he’s running neck and neck with his formidable challenger, the state’s three-term Democratic Steve Bullock.

As Bullock’s career suggests, Montana has something of an odd political record. While it reliably backs Republican presidential candidates many of its voters have, traditionally, been willing to swing for moderate Democrats at a state level. Indeed, its other senator – John Tester – is also a Democrat.

Whether Bullock can also pull off this feat in the current hyper-partisan environment remains to be seen.

South Carolina 

Finally, South Carolina is the toss-up that looks best for Republicans. Most polls suggest Republican incumbent Lindsay Graham has the rub of the green and only a few have shown Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison, chair of the state’s Democratic party, narrowly ahead.

Graham has attracted a good deal of criticism thanks to his flip from being a maverick moderate close to John McCain to one of Trump’s most loyal acolytes. He has also recently been pilloried by some for going back on his word not to vote to appoint a Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice in an election year.

Still, Democratic hatred may not be enough to get rid of Graham in this, usually, solidly-red State. What will be key, as in Georgia, is the turnout among African-American voters.

3) Possible but not probable 

Michigan

Outside of Alabama, in which the Democrats are almost certainly doomed, Michigan is a rare state where Democrats are playing defence. Still, the worries are mainly a matter of Democratic incumbent Gary Peters’ lead not looking quite as healthy they would like. Indeed, in the past two weeks, extra attention from the party seems to have helped Peters open up a nice clear lead over his Republican challenger, black armed forces veteran and businessman, John E. James.

If Democrats do lose Michigan’s Senate race it’s a bad sign for them. It would suggest that they might well be struggling to take not just the Senate but also the presidency. Michigan was, after all, one of the three states that fell out the Democrats’ “Blue Wall” in 2016, handing Trump the victory.

Kansas

Polling has been spotty in Kansas, making it hard to get a good picture, but Democratic challenger Barbara Bollier does seem to have closed in on Republican incumbent Roger Marshall. This is may be the most likely Democrat win of this possible-but-not-probable section.

Alaska 

Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is probably fine, but things are close enough for the Republican party to have sent in a surge in funding in this final week.  Notably his challenger, Al Gross, is running as an independent voicing support for Democratic priorities like healthcare and climate change – but supports restrictions on immigration and rejects strict gun control.

Alaska has long had an independent streak and a willingness to buck party politics, its other Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski lost her party but then won off the back of a write in campaign. If Gross wins it will be tapping into this streak.

Texas 

Finally, Texas looks the least likely to flip Democratic in the Senate of this trio. Two years ago, Beto O’Rourke came within 2.6% of unseating the other Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz. However, Beto passed on this race to run – unsuccessfully – for the Democratic presidential nomination. So this year the Democrats are fielding a weaker challenger in the form of Mary Jennings Hegar, and the Republicans an incumbent far less controversial than Cruz in the form of John Conryn.

If Democrats do win the Senate seat here, it will be off the back of sky-high voter turnout, particularly among Latinos, with the number of early votes – which seem to tend Democrat – cast in the state now equivalent 94% of 2016’s total turnout.

If the Democrats win the Senate race here Biden is also likely winning the state and with it, beyond a shadow of a doubt, the presidency.

Joseph Rachman is reporting from Washington DC.