Biden landslide or a Trumpocalypse? Here are the crucial swing states that will decide the 2020 US election
Welcome to E-Day. The US election is upon us and Joe Biden looks most likely to win, even if shellshock over Donald Trump’s 2016 victory has left many unwilling to prophesy.
As that shock win so firmly reminded us, US elections are not decided by a simple majority of votes, but by the Electoral College. The magic number candidates need to get to secure victory is 270 which, in procedural terms, means the backing of 270 state electors. Each states tallies its votes and then awards its electors, usually to the leading candidate on a winner takes all basis. The only exceptions are Maine and Nebraska, which split them between candidates based on district victories – though the phenomenon is relatively rare and unlikely to matter except in extreme scenarios.
The Republicans and Trump are favoured by the system, which gives extra weight to rural areas that tend to be more conservative and where a greater proportion of the population is white. To be confident of victory, the Democrats need a national margin of 3-5%. The polls give them more than this currently and, as many have been quick to point out, even if there’s as big a polling error this year, as in 2016, Biden would still win. Still, this seems to have done little to allay the fears of many Democrats.
Nonetheless, Trump is looking at a tough, unforgiving map, one which will make his path to victory a tricky one indeed. Of the swing states listed below, Trump is playing defence in every single case, except Nevada, which he has a slim chance of flipping this year. Furthermore, the loss of any one of them would likely be bad news for Trump, heralding losses elsewhere.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is possibly the most important state to watch Tuesday night. Trump’s chances of winning the election without this state are essentially nil. If, on the other hand, he pulls off an upset, he will suddenly find himself the favourite.
Currently, Biden is favoured to win this state with FiveThirtyEight’s polling average giving Biden a projected vote share of 50.2% to Trump’s 45.4%. This means Biden support is softer here than in the other key Midwestern states of Michigan and Wisconsin, but it’s still solid. Even if this year sees a polling error as big as in 2016 Biden would still squeak a victory by 0.4%. Trump would have to pull off upset bigger than that of 2016 to take this state.
Key counties to watch are Erie, Luzerne, and Northampton, which all flipped from Barack Obama to Trump in 2016. Biden will now be hoping to take Erie and Northampton, which Trump won fairly narrowly, and at least close the gap in Luzerne. Keep an eye on turnout in the Democratic strongholds of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh as well as their suburbs; Biden will win these but the bigger the margin, the better for his campaign.
Also, watch out for mail-in ballots. Some counties won’t be counting them until all in-person ballots have been tallied. All this means that we might have to wait for days for a clear result.
Florida
The second most important state of the night. If Biden loses here he’s still probably on track to win the country but the path to victory suddenly becomes a bit harder; if Trump loses here, he’s toast.
Currently Biden is favoured to win this state with FiveThirtyEight’s polling average giving Biden a projected vote share of 48.9% to Trump’s 46.5%. Again, if this year were to experience a polling error as big as in 2016, Biden would still just about snatch a win by a razor thin margin of 0.2%.
Key counties to watch are Monroe, St Lucie, Pinellas, and Jefferson, which flipped from Barack Obama to Trump in 2016. As ever, watch turnout in party strongholds as well. Clinton’s campaign beat their turnout aims in 2016 – but still got swamped by a Trump surge in the deep-red “Panhandle” in the north.
We should know the results within a few hours of polls closing. This State counts mail-in ballots before the election day itself and several issues that caused delays to 2018’s gubernatorial results have also been addressed. If Biden wins here then anxious Democrats might feel safe enough to switch off and catch some sleep.
Arizona
Arizona is another key Democratic target. As with most of these races, bar those in the Midwest, Biden can afford to lose this and still be the favourite, whereas Trump looks doomed if he does. At the moment, Biden is favoured to win this state with FiveThirtyEight’s polling average giving Biden a projected vote share of 48.5% to Trump’s 46%. If this year were to witness a polling error as big as in 2016, Biden would, once again, still be expected to win narrowly, by 1.2%.
The key county to watch is Maricopa which contains the City of Phoenix and its environs, as well as half of Arizona’s population. Trump won it narrowly in 2016, but the Republican Senate candidate lost it and the race in 2018. Also watch for turnout in liberal Pima.
Results should come in pretty fast here; early ballots are counted first, likely giving the Democrats an early lead, followed by in-person ballots. If it is extremely close, we’ll have to watch for absentee ballots trickling in over the next few days.
Wisconsin
This state looks like a must-win for Biden. It is one of three foundation stones – along with Michigan and Pennsylvania – that Trump knocked out of the Democrats’ “Blue Wall” in 2016 – winning it narrowly by just under 23,000 votes. Comfortingly for Biden he looks to have a commanding lead in this state with FiveThirtyEight’s polling average giving Biden a projected vote share of 5.19% to Trump’s 43.7%.
If Biden loses here then something is going seriously wrong for him and his prospects in the other key Mid-Western states look grim. In such a scenario, he would have to take the Sunbelt States to compensate for losses here.
There are too many counties which flipped to Trump in 2016 to list here, but Kenosha and Sauk will be two key indicators to look out for. If Biden’s not winning them he’s in deep trouble.
We should have the results of this state by Wednesday morning in the US, though the large number of mail-in ballots that can’t be counted until today might take a while to tally up.
Michigan
Michigan looks a lot like Wisconsin both in terms of importance to Biden and likely results. Currently Biden is favoured to win this state with FiveThirtyEight’s polling average giving Biden a projected vote share of 51.1% to Trump’s 43%. This is well within 2016’s margin of error, and looks deathly for Trump who won the state by under 11,000 votes in 2016. Again, an upset victory here would suggest that a second upset victory is in the offing nationally.
County-wise Biden should be looking to win Isabella and Saginaw.
Like Pennsylvania, Michigan will likely take a few days to tally all the results, with Friday being suggested for final totals.
North Carolina
Democrats last won this state in 2008 and if Biden gets this, or any other Southern State, it’s probably just gravy. Currently Biden is favoured to win this state with FiveThirtyEight’s polling average giving Biden a projected vote share of 48.9% to Trump’s 47%. A polling error as big as in 2016 would see Trump win this state, but as a standalone state it isn’t enough to give him a surprise victory.
Watch New Hanover county, which has been reliably Republican since 1976 but only by narrow margins. Martin, Granville, Gates, Richmond, Bladen, and Robeson counties that flipped for Trump in 2016 are also worth watching. Any signs of high black turnout would be particularly good for Biden in this state.
Up to 80% of the votes could be announced as soon as polls close at 00:30 UK time. This potentially makes it a great early indicator of how the race is going, though early votes are expected to lean heavily Democrat making the margin the key indicator. Results from in-person voting will then come in over the next few hours, and absentee ballots can be received up until the 12th.
Georgia
This state last went blue for Clinton in 1992, though Democrats nearly won the gubernatorial race in 2018. As with Georgia a victory here would probably just be another rock in a landslide for Biden. Still, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average giving only gives Biden a narrow lead with projected vote share of 48.3% to Trump’s 47.3%. A 2016-sized polling error would give the state to Trump.
Watch Peach County, which Biden needs to win back for the Democrats, as well as the Atlanta suburbs of Gwinnett, Cobb, and Henry, all important zones where Biden will want to build on Clinton’s 2016 lead.
Georgia should have most of its votes counted on the night, but it may take a couple of days to confirm a winner if things look very close.
Ohio
Trump is very mildly favoured to win this state with polls having tightened to give him a lead of just 0.7%, 47.4% to Biden’s 46.7%, despite having won the state by nearly 8% in 2016. Losing it and its 18 electoral votes would be a shattering blow for Trump. Biden, however, could probably shrug this off.
Wood and Erie Counties are a good bellwether for the State. They flipped heavily from Obama to Trump by roughly the same margins that Biden now needs to make up on from 2016.
Results should come in quickly with likely Democrat-leaning absentee ballots being announced first, before a probable shift towards Republicans after that. The last batch of absentee ballots aren’t processed until the middle of the month – but we will know how many are left so will probably be able to call the state on the night.
Texas
A loss of Texas with its 38 electoral college votes would be devastating news not just for Trump but for the entire Republican party. The fact that Trump currently leads by just 1% (48.5% to 47.5%) in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average will doubtless be keeping some Republican campaign managers up at night.
Democrats also have reason to be bullish about this state. Turnout has skyrocketed in this traditionally low-turnout state with early votes cast already exceeding 100% of the total turnout in 2016. Much of this increase seems to have come from Democratic leaning areas. Watch the Dallas-Forth Worth Metro Area with a win in Tarrant and even a narrow loss Collin being good news for Biden.
Results should be known on the night with most absentee ballots counted then. If it’s a tight contest, then a final batch of absentee ballots counted over the next few days might sway things, likely for the Democrats.
Iowa
Iowa is about as likely to flip as Texas with Trump only leading by 1.5% (47.7% to 46.2%) despite having won it by nearly 10% in 2016. Losing this state is bad for Trump not so much due to its value, it has only 8 electoral college votes, but as a general indicator of how his night seems to be going.
Marshall County is as good a place as any to watch this state having swung by about 17% from Obama to Trump.
Results should be available relatively fast with absentee ballots allowed to be processed early, though a few more will trickle in over the following days.
Nevada
Nevada is about the only state Trump has a chance of adding to his 2016 coalition tonight – and even here it doesn’t look good for him. Harry Reid, former Democratic Senate leader from this state and maestro of the Reid turnout machine, may have retired by Trump is still trailing Biden by 5.3% in this state. Unlike with the three Midwestern states above Biden can maybe lose this state and feel ok. Still, it would hardly bode well.
The only county really worth watching is Clark, home of Las Vegas, and nearly 70% of the state’s population.
We should know the result for Clark on the night and this should decide the state. If there isn’t a clear winner by then, the result will depend on the votes that will straggle in slowly over the course of the month. A familiar story to other states in an election that is unlike any other.
Joseph Rachman is reporting from Washington DC.