Beijing boycott: a new Cold War is on the horizon
The Americans have drawn a line in the snow. Many analysts still argue that there will not be a cold war between the USA and China. The announcement this week by the American government that it will boycott the Beijing Olympics may have sent an icy shudder down their necks.
The new ‘small c’ cold war is on the horizon and approaching fast. The small ‘c’ is because it will be different from the 20th version; as Mark Twain may have said, “History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes”. In the second half of the 20th C, one major power led a coalition of others to contain Russia, in the 21st C, it is assembling alliances to contain China.
Consider who is not sending government representatives to Games next February. The first of the major powers out of the blocks were the Americans, quickly followed by the Australians, and the British. Where have we seen that configuration? In the 20th C coalition, and now again with the AUKUS submarine deal which is aimed squarely at China.
Canada followed suit, and then New Zealand, although its government said this was due to a ‘range of factors’, chiefly Covid-19. This appears to be another example of New Zealand hedging its bets with China while staying onside with its four other English speaking Five Eyes intelligence partners. Whereas once their eyes focussed mostly on Russia, the gaze has shifted to China.
India is expected to send government representation while Japan is considering its response. However, last week neither country signed the United Nations “Olympic Truce” for the Winter Games. The “Truce”, which originated in ancient Greece and was revived in 1992, is designed to ensure conflicts don’t disrupt the sporting competition. India and Japan are both members of the “Quad” security dialogue along with the USA and Australia. The dialogue is about containing China.
The message those boycotting the games are sending is that China’s industrial scale human rights atrocities are unacceptable, particularly the treatment of Xinxiang province’s Muslim Uighur people. To really get that across, and to get under the Politburo’s skin, they need more countries to follow their example. That’s a tough ask. In the 20th C, standing up to Russia had its risks, but the economic pain Moscow could inflict was limited, yet getting on the wrong side of Beijing this century can seriously damage your bank balance.
At time of writing, the only EU country confirming a boycott is Lithuania. A week before Joe Biden announced Washington’s position Lithuania’s President, Gitanas Nauseda, confirmed that no government officials will be attending the Games. Vilnius and Beijing are at daggers drawn after Lithuania confirmed it would allow a de facto Taiwanese embassy in Vilnius, causing China to downgrade its own diplomatic presence there and enacted trade sanctions.
Many EU countries may be hiding behind Brussels. France, Germany, and others, argue that the issue must be dealt with at a European level. The new German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, said “We will decide in the new federal government how to deal with this issue further, but this will also be done in harmony with our European friends.” It’s thought the Dutch may be leaning towards a diplomatic boycott, but by kicking the issue to Brussels, 26 of the 27 EU member states can leave their options open. If at the EU level they cannot agree, it creates a get out clause for those reluctant to anger Beijing, while others could still act at national level.
Beijing is indeed angry with the boycotting countries accusing them of “political posturing”. Allegations of human rights abuses it says are smears “based on lies and rumours”. Australian and British diplomats hadn’t even been invited said a Chinese official, and no-one would care whether they come or not. Foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said the USA would “pay a price” and spoke of “resolute countermeasures” in response.
The measures were unspecified, but in recent years Beijing has repeatedly retaliated against countries which have crossed it by disrupting trade, sanctioning foreign officials, and suspending bilateral exchanges. China’s fierce response has concentrated the minds not just of government, many major companies with international brands have decisions to make. When H&M and Nike said they would no longer use cotton from Xinjiang, they faced boycotts from sections of the Chinese public, egged on by state media. There will be pressure on companies to pull advertising from the sports stadiums during the Games.
The 2022 Winter Olympics looks set to be the most controversial since 1980 when the USA, and dozens of countries, boycotted the Moscow Olympics and four years later faced the smaller Soviet led boycott of the Los Angeles Games.
History may rhyme again. Los Angeles will be the stage for the 2028 Summer Olympics. Who will show up? As Zhao Lijian said about countermeasures – “Let’s all wait and see.”