A proxy war is emerging in conflict-ravaged Sudan

A singular image, titled “the vulture and the little girl”, has come to define the Sudanese experience – and that of Africa more generally – in the Western consciousness. A depiction of starvation and suffering so poignant, so morally contentious, that it drove its Pulitzer Prize winning creator to suicide.

Thirty years later, Africa hopes to liberate itself of the photo’s detrimental legacy. In much of the continent, cities are rapidly rising from the earth, tens of millions are logging onto the internet, and trade is flourishing. Far from Nairobi’s bustling business districts and the serene tourist towns of Ghana’s coast however, lies rural Sudan. In this place, where the timeless photo originated, the situation is as desperate as ever.

In 2019, Sudan appeared to be turning a corner. Millions marched in the streets for democracy and, with military support, the Sudanese people were able to eject their thirty-year despot, Omar al-Bashir, from power. However, the brief glimpse of democracy and civilian rule was quickly extinguished as the two main factions of Sudan’s military turned their guns on one another last year.

On one side of the civil war is Sudan’s main army, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which was instrumental in maintaining the oppressive Bashir regime before betraying him in 2019.

The rival faction comprises a coalition of ruthless militias known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). In the early 2000s, Bashir bolstered these ragtag paramilitaries as a counterweight against his untrustworthy army and utilised them to brutally suppress ethnic revolts. The founding militias of the RSF are infamous for perpetrating the heinous Darfur Genocide, which killed an estimated 300,000.

An uneasy peace between the two sides post-Bashir has now descended into a mad power struggle.  The RSF, under a rich and ruthless warlord known as “Hemedti”, has captured most of the country’s west while the SAF, under General al-Burhan, has found its footing on the Red Sea to the east. 

The centre of the country has been ravaged by the war, reducing much of Khartoum, the once prosperous capital, to rubble. Battles have raged through city streets, rural villages, and everywhere in between. At least 15,000 have lost their lives in what the UN has called “an inferno of brutal violence”. 

As both sides have rejected democratic rule and stand accused of mass rape, indiscriminate killings, and various war crimes, the United Kingdom and United States have avoided taking a stance in the conflict. Instead, the Western powers have called for an immediate cessation to hostilities. 

Although the Western nations are unceremoniously absent in the confrontation, a proxy war is brewing between several other regional and international powers.

Chief among these is the United Arab Emirates, who are alleged to be the main state-supporter of the RSF. Despite the UAE’s affirmation to the contrary, credible reports from the US government blame the Gulf state for intensifying the conflict by supplying the rebel militia with the necessities for war.

For the UAE, access to west Sudan’s gold reserves seems to be the main motivating factor. According to an investigation by Global Witness, through an elaborate network of intermediaries, the UAE trades arms, vehicles, and access to Abu Dhabi banks to Hemedti’s RSF in exchange for billions in gold.

Russia also supports the RSF through its infamous Wagner Group. Utilised in missions across the continent, Wagner acts as a covert intermediary to the Kremlin, helping them consolidate influence and resources without deploying regular Russian forces. 

Wagner’s Sudan deployment shares the UAE’s desire for gold, but also aims to foster an alliance which could lead to the renewal of Russia’s proposed Red Sea military base. Upon an RSF victory, a Red Sea base would provide Russia with invaluable access to the critical corridor.

Russia’s involvement has also opened up an unprecedented new front in the Ukraine conflict, as Ukrainian special operatives have sided with the SAF to hunt Wagnerites in the Sahara.

Oddly, Russia’s close partner, Iran, has deviated from Moscow, choosing instead to back the Ukraine-aligned SAF. Along with Egypt, Tehran serves as a crucial weapons supplier to the embattled army. In the last few months, Iranian drones and munitions have been credited with turning the tide of the war in the army’s favour as its forces recapture key cities in the centre. By supporting the SAF, Iran hopes to strengthen its regional presence in the Red Sea while undermining the relationship between Israel and Sudan, which was normalised in 2023. 

Stranger still, Iran also finds itself on the same side as its traditional foe Saudi Arabia, which is prioritising its regional rivalry against the UAE. To bolster the SAF, Saudi Arabia has permitted Iran to use its airspace for weapons deliveries and has made several attempts to resolve the conflict with negotiation before the RSF can gain the upper hand. 

As the various foreign actors vie for control over resources, access to the sea, and influence, the people of Sudan face an exceptionally dire situation. The UN reports that more than a third of the Sudanese population, 18 million people, face acute food insecurity. Millions more are at risk of displacement and destitution as the conflict metastasises. 

The abysmal conditions are especially acute in Darfur. Last week, Human Rights Watch warned that the region may once again be on the verge of genocide as RSF militias carry out a brutal campaign of attrition against local ethnic groups such as the Massalit. 

Despite the rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation, the world remains largely unperturbed. The conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza have absorbed the globe’s attention, relegating the suffering of Sudan to the margins. As was the case in pre-genocide 1993 Rwanda, calls for preventive action are falling upon deaf ears.

With no international interventions or ceasefires on the horizon and no secure nations to flee to, the people of Sudan are truly trapped between Scylla and Charybdis. 

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