A perfect storm: Macron faces strikes and a bloody-minded Opposition

When France’s President Macron this week ordered workers employed by ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies to call off strike action in pursuit of an inflation-based pay claim, he knew he was taking a risk. The strike, now into its third week, has created widespread fuel shortages and, if it spreads, could effectively bring the country to a standstill. 

Macron’s patience, as ever on a short fuse, ran out on Tuesday when he invoked emergency legislation aimed at the preservation of national security to demand that key workers taking part in the strikes should return to work. Those who refused the “requisition order” could, he said, face fines or even imprisonment. 

The response of the unions was predictable. The Confédération Générale du Travail, led by former Communist Philippe Martinez, has redoubled its commitment to the strikes, which currently affect six out of seven of the largest regional refineries. The union’s 700,000 members, employed in a variety of commercial sectors, have been asked to join picket lines. Those actually on strike have meanwhile voted to continue their action, which includes blockades of fuel depots across the country. 

In some parts of the country, motorists are having to search around for garages that are opening – an exercise that in itself uses up precious fuel. In others, such as Brittany, the impact so far has been negligible. 

Should the strikers, backed by the unions, continue with their action, the authorities could limit supplies to key workers, including doctors, nurses and the emergency services. But the risk is that the unions will hold firm, using the dispute to further their aim of bringing the Government down and forcing fresh elections.  

Trials of strength in France can be violent and long-drawn-out. Motorists are torn. Many will instinctively sympathise with the strikers. Others may take note of the fact that those on strike at TotalEnergies, in pursuit of a 10 per cent pay rise, already earn an average of €60,000 a year, in return for which they work a 32-hour week and can retire on full pension at the age of 59. 

In the National Assembly, the Far Right and the Far Left have seized the opportunity to embarrass the Élysée by voicing their support for the strikers while at the same time demanding that ministers get a firm grip on the faltering economy. The hope of the Opposition, especially on the Left, is that events can be brought to a head as part of a wider strategy in which, with the Centre defeated, Right and Left could engage in an ideologically pure battle for power. 

Until this week, there was little, if any, sign in France of a looming existential crisis. The many problems facing voters, energy shortages foremost among them, were a concern, as were rising prices in the shops. But the feeling was that, after three intensely difficult years, the nation was still in one piece and managing – just – to hold its course.

It was only as a summer dominated by heatwaves and water shortages (neither of which were laid at the feet of Macron or his ministers) finally gave way to autumn that the underlying weaknesses in the economy and infrastructure became unavoidable. 

On the energy front, panic has been avoided by the twofold strategy of ramping up all available nuclear resources and applying a cap on domestic fuel bills that limits increases to a maximum of six per cent. As many as 32 of France’s 54 reactors were offline when Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine resulted in a Europe-wide shortage of Russian-supplied oil and gas. Energy giant EDF, now 100 per cent state-owned, promised to have all, or nearly all, of its nuclear plants back in full production by the end of the year, which, if implemented, would mean that blackouts could probably be avoided throughout the winter. But the cost of the cap could reach as high as one hundred billion euros, adding to borrowings already massively inflated by the Government’s response to the Covid pandemic. 

France is not alone, of course, in its predicament. Every European government, from Lisbon to Tallin and from Helsinki to Rome has been hard hit by the double-whammy of Covid and the war in Ukraine. It could even be argued that France has responded better than most, holding inflation down to just 6.5 per cent and with growth for the year expected to come in at close to 2.4 per cent. 

The Government’s next big test, other than the refinery strikes, could come this week or next in the form of a parliamentary clash over the proposed budget. The finance minister, Bruno Le Maire has put forward a budget based on a financing requirement of €305 billion and a level of public deficit in 2023 contained at 5 per cent of GDP. 

The left coalition, led by Jean Luc Mélenchon, and the far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, say that Le Maire is penny-pinching and needs to be far more generous in terms of state spending. They say they will vote en bloc in hope of defeating the Bill. In response, Le Maire says that, with the support of both Macron and the prime minister, Élisabeth Borne, he is ready to invoke a rarely used constitutional device, known as 49.3, to force through the budget regardless of the numbers.

Others to have used 49.3 in the past include De Gaulle (whose creation it was), François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac. But all three of these were commanding figures. Macron, by contrast, has yet to force his way into the pantheon of French leaders. With the refineries crisis unresolved and with his government’s budget in the balance, he may just be approaching a perfect storm.  

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