A Gaza ceasefire may finally be close
Events in Ukraine, Lebanon, Syria, Iran and the US are all helping to create the conditions for an Israel-Hamas agreement.
The headline '“Gaza ceasefire close” has been written many times in 2024. At year’s end, it may finally be true because the moving parts of warfare, diplomacy, and politics in the Middle East, Europe, and the US have aligned creating the conditions for Israel and Hamas to reach an agreement.
The wars in Ukraine and Lebanon, the fall of Aleppo in Syria to jihadists, and the election of Donald Trump are all connected to the potential for a ceasefire in Gaza. Syria’s President Assad only survived the civil war there because Hezbollah and Iranian ground forces intervened and were backed by Russian jets. In return, Moscow was granted a 100-year lease on an airbase in Syria and allowed to upgrade the small naval base it has in Tartus on the Mediterranean coast. Tehran’s reward was turning Assad into a partial Iranian puppet and shoring up its supply route to Hezbollah in Lebanon.