A formal security relationship is needed between the UK and EU
Despite Britain having a long list of its own problems and an upcoming election which polls indicate will lead to a change in government, it’s difficult not to have one eye on the US. Donald Trump has now added a third criminal case to his growing list of legal troubles and, if convicted, federal and state prosecutors will have to decide whether to imprison a presidential candidate… or possibly even the winner of the 2024 Presidential race. In other words, the US is about to descend into a period of political craziness.
Europe can do little to influence events across the Atlantic, but it can prepare itself for potential outcomes. The US could be about to enter a new phase of turmoil and, depending on the outcome of the election, isolationism. As Iain Martin wrote in the Times last week, this has serious implications for European security and if the worst happens, Britain and the EU must be ready to step up for Ukraine.
The invasion of Ukraine led to an improvement in relations between the UK and the EU as both sides turned their focus to something more important than Brexit that required rapid joint action. Informal coordination increased in the wake of the invasion, contributing to an improvement in the bilateral relationship after a period of post-Brexit dissonance. This should pave the way for a formal defence and security agreement to be embedded with the EU-UK the Trade and Cooperation Agreement.
In the wake of the invasion, the UK was invited – along with the US, Canada and Norway – to attend an extraordinary session of the Foreign Affairs Council to coordinate a response. At the same time, high level calls took place between Liz Truss, then Foreign Secretary, and
the EU’s High Representative, Josep Borrell. UK-EU cooperation on sanctions was strong and resulted in both sides enacting similar packages. The UK also had a presence in the clearing cell established in Brussels to identify and route military aid to Ukraine.
So, as informal dialogue worked so well, why the need for a formal security partnership? For the answer, we need only look at the political climate. European security cooperation was enhanced in the 1990’s out of fear of American disengagement, the 2016 election was a wakeup call for Europe, and 2024 could bring disruption once again.
Changes in government in European states also bring risks to security cooperation, as exemplified by the fact that there is no formal security partnership in the TCA because political events in the UK sank the May government, which had plans for one. Boris Johnson came in and his desire for a basic Brexit deal and a scorched Earth approach to diplomacy meant security and defence was neglected in negotiations, an inadequate agreement was concluded, and relations soured.
The Ukraine war has highlighted that the EU and UK need one another, and security is more important than political squabbles over Brexit, and relations between domestic leaders. We need institutionalised cooperation because formal dialogue is more robust and less vulnerable to political change. There should be regular conversations across all levels of government, which would enable civil servants on both sides to exchange information and identify productive areas of cooperation. Bilateral coordination is inefficient and can never be as effective as a single mechanism for consulting with the collective EU27.
The UK-EU security relationship is the missing link in Europe’s response to Ukraine and, politically, the time is right for an agreement. Public support for a harder Brexit has drained away, in any case security cooperation was never a contentious issue during the referendum, aside from the fear of an EU army which is a defunct concern after Brexit. There are fewer sovereignty trade-offs to make than in other areas of relations so a security partnership should have cross-party support.
With the US election reminding us of the need for Europe to act and coordinate if America turns inwards, and the war in Ukraine still raging, now is the time to take advantage of the window of opportunity and negotiate closer arrangements with our closest security partners.
Ben Kelly is a member of the Independent Commission on UK-EU Relations. The Commission works to research the impact of the UK’s departure from the EU and to propose beneficial changes to the UK-EU agreements