A bad result for Germany's anti-immigration leftists could be more consequential than the AfD's historic gains
That the BSW fell tantalisingly short of finding representation within the Bundestag may well enable Germany's centre-right and centre-left parties to form a so-called Grand Coalition.
And so we move into Week Five of Trump 2.0, with large parts of the world still perplexed as to what exactly the objective might be. I sat at a dinner last night at which I was confronted with one individual who, below the surface, sees an entirely joined up and in truth necessary process of blowing up elements of what Donald Trump sees as an American geopolitical and socio-economic logjam. One of my other dining companions simply follows the conventional wisdom that sees nothing other than a misogynistic felon who is on the path to dismantling American democracy and woe betide anybody who dares stand in the way. Phew!
Whilst we were enjoying a spot of venison and a decent glass or three of Cote du Rhone, the Germans were busy counting votes so that, by the time dinner was over, the preliminary results were in and, for once, the pollsters’ forecasts proved not far off. The maths behind the final distribution of seats within the Bundestag is complicated and for obvious reasons looks very different, depending on how many political parties make it over the legendary 5% hurdle below which they are not included in the count.
That the FDP, a member of Olaf Scholz’s outgoing red, yellow and green coalition was in all likelihood not going to make it has for some time been a racing certainty but the performance on the left of Die Linke, the spiritual successor to the former east German Stalinist SED and the BSW, the anti-immigration group that split off from Die Linke under the leadership of Sahra Wagenknecht, was going to be key. Why so? If both Die Linke and BSW were to cross the 5% hurdle, then the seats they would take would have to come off those which might alternatively be assigned to the big guys, the centre right CDU/CSU bloc and the centre left SPD.
This in turn is important as the best worst outcome has been seen as the CDU/CSU and the SPD between them gaining enough seats to form a majority, a so-called Grand Coalition, without the need to include the Greens. Confused? You’re excused. Before final results have received the official stamp of approval but after all votes have been counted, the really important news is not that the AfD has garnered over 20% but that the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht at 4.9% of the national vote fell tantalisingly short of finding representation within the Bundestag. Had it found that extra 0.1%, the two-party Grand Coalition might not have been possible.
There is an interesting aside to this which is that the 1966 to 1969 grand coalition under the most undistinguished of post-war Chancellors, the eminently forgettable Kurt-Georg Kiesinger – himself a former member of the NSDAP - quite seriously discussed binning Germany’s proportional representation and switching to a first past the post system as exists in the United Kingdom in order to bring about clear election results with working majorities instead of the piecemeal formation of inherently unstable coalition governments.
Included in Kiesinger’s first cabinet were both Willy Brand and Gerhard Schröder who in the event would go on to become Chancellors for the SPD, but the full list of ministers reads like a Who’s Who of the great years of Germany’s recovery to become the undisputed leading economic power in Europe. I feel sorely tempted to list the names of some of the towering figures who are named but I fear I might bore most of you to death although it is the notable absence of Helmut Schmidt which catches the eye.
And the dreaded AfD? Yes, it has polled over 20% and will be the second largest party in the Bundestag but the outcome is such that mainstream parties of the centre will be strong enough to keep the AfD where they want them on the outside of the “Firewall”. Is it fair to do so and to leave 20% of the electorate unrepresented in government? Of course it is. After the UK election of July 2024, around 65% of the electorate will not be represented in the government. It’s the way it is. Is it fair? Who said it had to be? Democracy is a strange beast which is as much about the power of the winners as it is about those winners’ tolerance of the opinions of the losers, which brings me full circle back to the US of A where hardcore binary politics as we are experiencing under Trump 2.0 is by no means anything new and which can trace its roots back not only into the last century but even to the one before that.