Scientists put the wind up Boris, again
Now we know why Boris Johnson has been so reluctant to give new dates for when we can expect a lifting of lockdown restrictions or, indeed, to provide a “road map” for an exit.
In a new twist, the Prime Minister confirmed at tonight’s press briefing that early research suggests the new “Kent” strain of the coronavirus may be up to 30 per cent more lethal than earlier versions.
But the PM’s claim was challenged by Professor Robert Dingwall, a leading member of the key body monitoring the disease. Dingwall told Reaction in an exclusive interview: “It is wrong to exploit it to increase public fear.”
Dingwall, who sits on the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, said: “The 30 per cent more lethal claim about the virus rests on a very fragile and uncertain base of evidence. NERVTAG has expressed limited confidence in this figure, which should not be the basis for public alarm.” Alastair Benn reports below.
Referring to the new variant, Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, also speaking at the briefing, said hospital data suggests the variant could increase the risk of death for a man in his 60s from 1 per cent to 1.3 per cent.
Vallance also said the new strain is between 30 and 70 per cent more transmissible than the original variant. However, his gloomy warning came with a big caveat – the evidence of the severity of this new strain was “not yet strong.” That’s deeply surprising and loose language from such an eminent scientist as Vallance. Can you imagine a PhD student standing in front of his examiner during a Viva making such a statement? Yes sir, we believe this virus is up to 70 per cent more transmissible but the evidence is not strong.
As Ed Conway, Sky’s economics journalist, tweeted, let’s hope the scientists at New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG) and SAGE can provide some actual data on the lethality of the new variant.
But what evidence there is has clearly put enough wind up the PM, who said there is no way that any curbs will be lifted until it is deemed safe to do so, and only when hospitalisations are coming down dramatically. He added that the rate of infection – although coming down – remains “forbiddingly high” which is why it would be wrong to unlock or lift the restrictions in case of a rebound. (On average in England, one person in 55 has the virus but this rises to one in 35 in London.)
This also doubled up as a clear warning to the gang of 70 Conservative MPs within his own party who make up the Covid Recovery Group and are demanding a “road map” to exit lockdown, to pipe down.
For now, the picture of how the new variant is spreading is confusing. According to the ONS data, the proportion of infections that appear to be due to the new variant – B.1.1.7 – remained stable across England yet regional differences are emerging. For example, the data also showed the number of people testing positive for the new strain has risen considerably in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland but has yet to overtake the old strain.
As yet there is no clear-cut explanation for why the new variant is falling in London but scientists say it may be down to behavioural changes or the spread of other strains such as the South African variant.
However, the decline across London and the South East has triggered debate over whether the new strain is indeed more transmissible than the first variant.
On Twitter, the mathematician Wes Pegden, posed the question of whether the new variant may have “appeared” to be more transmissible by having a slightly different susceptibility profile than “wild-type” strains. Pegden suggested the data was “scientifically intriguing.” So it is.
Whatever the substance of the evidence behind the severity of the new strain, this was one of the gloomiest days of the pandemic with another record 1,401 deaths while the number of people hospitalised is now 38,000, 78 per cent higher than at the peak of the first wave last April.
Yet there was a shred of light too: the wise men at SAGE claim that the rate of infection – the so-called magic R number (which is collected from members of SAGE) is down to between 0.8 and 1 with daily infections now falling every day for almost two weeks.
At the same time, the rate of vaccination is at another record: 400,000 people received their vaccines on Thursday and the total is now close to 5.4 million.
At this speed, the NHS should be on target to have the 15 million people in the four most at-risk groups vaccinated by mid-February.
Weekend
That’s enough troubling news for one night so I’m not going to even mention the government’s ghastly December borrowing figures, or indeed the slump in retail sales which saw clothing sales collapse by 25 per cent, the lowest in 23 years. That’s because we are all living in sweatpants or pyjamas. Look out for tomorrow morning’s edition of Reaction Weekend featuring some great writing on opera and what to watch on TV (in your pyjamas) from our brilliant young and veteran writers. Have a great weekend.
Maggie Pagano,
Executive Editor