Sunak has announced £17bn worth of tax cuts. For workers, this will mean a 2p cut to National Insurance by 2027 and scrapping the main rate of self-employed NI entirely by the end of the next parliament. 

For the grey vote, it was confirmed that the Tories will introduce the “Triple Lock Plus”, which would make sure the state pension doesn’t get dragged into income tax.

For the youth, Sunak announced the introduction of mandatory national service for school leavers at 18 and 100,000 apprenticeships for young people paid for by curbing “poor quality” university degrees. 

Fearing Farage and Reform, he announced plans for a legal cap on migration by limiting the number of work and family visas issued to a level set by parliament, saying that the number would fall year on year. Sunak spoke of his desire for a “regular rhythm” of flights to Rwanda every month, starting in July and lasting until the small boat Channel crossings stop, but didn’t commit to any concrete numbers. 

To fix the housing crisis, the Tories claim they will permanently abolish stamp duty for homes up to £425,000 for first-time buyers in England and Northern Ireland, introduce a new Help to Buy scheme and deliver 1.6 million homes in England.

What else was there? Importantly, a promise to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent. Far in the future, the Tories have promised to build four new prisons housing up to 20,000 prisoners but not in the next parliament. 

This all sounds great and, of course, manifestos are meant to. But can Sunak actually come through on his promises? How will they be funded? 

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves has accused Sunak of “gaslighting” the public. Blasting the manifesto as a “desperate wish list of unfunded promises”, Reeves accused it of costing £71bn that the Tories don’t have. Invoking Liz Truss and the disastrous mini-budget that wrecked the economy, Reeves said: “They’ve done it before and this is proof they will do it again.” 

Reeves was brief and direct as she outlined major problems with specific policies. On the bogus degrees, she asked, how will Sunak stop students from just choosing to study something else, thus the funding would merely go to different courses and not to apprenticeships? On raising funds through tax evasion, she said that could not be done without initial extra funding for HMRC. On national service, she said Sunak had not mentioned the cost of training and lodging which will make it prohibitively expensive. It seems many manifesto pledges are easily punctured. 

Paul Johnson of the IFS also doubted the affordability of the plans. He said the cuts were “uncertain, unspecific and apparently victimless savings,” of which he has a “degree of scepticism”.  

Robert Peel, a father of the modern Conservative party who served twice as prime minister, wrote his canonical Tamworth manifesto in 1834. His aim was to distinguish his brand of Conservatism from that of his predecessor, the Duke of Wellington. Peel claimed that the party “would reform to survive” and steer clear of unnecessary change to avoid “a perpetual vortex of agitation”. 

Two hundred years on, the goal of politics is still to avoid that vortex of agitation. So far, Sunak has consummately failed to do so and this manifesto, so easy to pick holes in, is unlikely to change that. 

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Alongside a renewed Israeli offensive near Deir-Al-Balah, fighting is also continuing in the city of Rafah in the south of Gaza and beyond, with the armed wings of Hamas and Islamic Jihad saying today they have been involved in gun battles and fired anti-tank missiles across the enclave. 

Tensions are high in the West Bank as thousands of Israeli nationalists have marched through Jerusalem in celebration of Flag Day, commemorating the start of the 1967 Six-Day War which Israel won. Sometimes known as the Third Arab–Israeli War, this was when Israeli forces took control over the West Bank, East Jerusalem, the Gaza Strip, as well as the Syrian Golan Heights and the Egyptian Sinai Peninsula. Photographs from today show Israeli marchers assaulting a Palestinian freelance journalist.

Meanwhile, Biden’s three-stage plan he proposed last Friday and tabled to the UN on Monday is faltering. Many members of the UN Security Council are unlikely to accept it because, as Biden claims, it is an Israeli-backed plan. Despite this ceasefire deal that Israel supposedly backs, Biden suggested that there is “every reason” to conclude that Benjamin Netanyahu is drawing out the war for political gain.

Crucially, the mediating nations, particularly Qatar and Egypt, need to get Hamas and Israeli negotiators in the same room. Before this happens, since the international community will not recognise a Palestinian state with the proscribed terrorist group at the helm, Hamas must reconcile with Fatah, the largest faction of the multi-party Palestine Liberation Organisation that runs the West Bank. Another step towards that is due to happen later this month in China when Hamas and Fatah will hold talks. This means Hamas is thinking seriously about its post-war settlement and retaining power in Gaza. 

Back to Biden’s plan. It involves a six-week ceasefire where all Israeli troops will leave Gaza, the release of the hostages and the difficult and expensive reconstruction of the Palestinian territory. Hamas will worry that, should it return all hostages, there is nothing to stop Netanyahu from restarting the war to “eliminate” Hamas, as is his current aim. Netanyahu’s aims couldn’t change that quickly, could they?

Reuters reported that the US and Qatar held talks in Doha today. While Hamas looks to be at least considering how to position itself for a ceasefire and post-war settlement, the IDF’s latest military operation suggests Israel is not doing the same. 

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Labour 422
Conservatives 140
Lib Dems 48
SNP 17
Green 2

This would give Labour a majority of 194, while the already dire result predicted for the Tories is likely too generous, now that Farage will be splitting the Tory vote. Reform UK is currently polling around 12 per cent on average in the polls but has seen some highs of 15-18 per cent recently.

A huge problem for the Tory party is that it is deeply unpopular with young people – polls suggest that only eight per cent said they would vote Conservative. 

The main headache for Sunak now is that those on the right who were voting Conservative because they felt there was no alternative may now have a more appealing alternative. Despite positive polling, Reform UK was a fringe party yesterday – now it may rack up millions of votes. Those who were voting Tory tactically to keep Starmer out may now decide that Labour will win regardless and that Reform could be a stronger opposition. Either way, Sir Keir will be pleased with how things are going.

Today’s announcement is, if not a game changer, then at least a spark of excitement in an otherwise insipid campaign.

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Labour wanted to spend today talking about its grand plans to make Britain’s streets safe from crime and anti-social behaviour, promising to bring back Tony Blair’s Asbos for repeat offenders. The announcement was undermined by the news that, in Labour-run London, four people were shot leaving a nine-year-old girl in critical condition. 

The fiasco over Diane Abbott being allowed to stand in the election continued into today with Labour’s deputy leader Angela Rayner saying that she sees no reason why Abbott can’t stand. Now, both Starmer and Rayner have denied Abbott’s claim that she was blocked. Rayner went further, describing the briefing to the press on Abbott’s being barred as “disgraceful”. 

Abbott isn’t the only Corbyn ally that the Labour leadership stands accused of trying to force out over the past 24 hours. A shocked Lloyd Russell-Moyle received a message yesterday when he was out campaigning in Brighton that he had been disqualified from standing due to an anonymous complaint against him. 

An equally shocked Faiza Shaheen told Newsnight yesterday evening that the same thing had happened to her on account of several purportedly antisemitic tweets she had liked some time ago. She has today said she will be challenging Labour’s decision. 

On the Today programme this morning, Jeremy Hunt quipped: “If Keir Starmer can’t deal with Diane Abbott, how on earth is he going to deal with Vladimir Putin?”

Rather flippant of the Chancellor, but it raises the question: does Starmer have enough momentum and power to get those he disagrees with out of the Labour party without causing a destructive backlash?

Christopher Hitchens once wrote: “Ruthless and arrogant though power can appear, it is only ever held by mere mammals who excrete and yearn, and who suffer from insomnia and insecurity.” It is difficult to imagine Starmer is feeling insecure given the polls and how the country seems to have mentally moved on from the Tories already. But insomnia isn’t off the cards. 

In Monmouthshire in South Wales, Keir Starmer was campaigning with Welsh first minister Vaughan Gething who faces a vote of no confidence in the Senedd next week. Starmer told the BBC that he is not picking fights with anyone and just wants the highest possible candidates to put before the electorate. 

One of those candidates is Luke Akehurst who will stand in the Labour safe seat of Durham North despite living in Oxford. Many in the Labour party have condemned his work as a lobbyist for Israel and a photo has been doing the rounds with him wearing a t-shirt that reads: “I’m literally a Zionist sh*tlord”.  Another candidate causing a stir is Josh Simons, director of the Labour Together think tank, who will stand in Makerfield, Wigan. Simons today condemned the Tory failure to fix the small boats crisis, suggesting that smuggler gangs should be put on a barge and “shipped to Scotland”. 

The second part of the aforementioned Hitchens quote reads: “These mammals [who hold power] are also necessarily vain in the extreme, and often wish to be liked almost as much as they desire to be feared.”

Now, we are getting a glimpse of who Keir Starmer wishes to be liked by. 

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The Labour leader started his campaign in Gillingham, hammering home the notion that a vote for Labour is a vote for change. Be prepared for a lot of “time to turn the page” and “end the Tory chaos” for the next six weeks.

Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak was in Derbyshire, then at a brewery in Wales making his trademark clumsy mistakes – he asked a group if they were looking forward to the Euros next month. Wales never qualified for the tournament. 

There was some good news for the Conservatives today with the confirmation that Nigel Farage won’t stand to be an MP for Reform, but he will remain the party’s honorary president. Any worries CCHQ has about Reform splitting the Tory vote will surely have eased with that news. Reform leader Richard Tice maintains that his party will seat 630 candidates out of a possible 650 and he will stand in Boston and Skegness. 

But what will worry CCHQ is the mass exodus of Tory MPs continuing at pace. Today Deputy Speaker of the Commons Dame Eleanor Laing, rail minister Huw Merriman, Bury and St Edmunds MP Jo Churchill and Leigh MP James Grundy all said they would not be standing at the election. That takes the total of Tory MPs standing down at the next election to 68 and the Tories now have 93 empty seats. 

Naturally, speculation has turned to who might fill the gaps. Names being thrown around Whitehall include Onward’s Seb Payne and Adam Hawskbee, Number 10’s Jamie Njoku Goodwin and Will Tanner, Sunak adviser and close friend James Forsyth and special adviser Alice Hopkin. 

Another consequence of the summer election is that the machinery of state must be halted. As a result, several bills have been axed including the Renters’ Reform Bill, the controversial (and costly) Rwanda Bill and, what was meant to be Sunak’s lasting mark on British life, the smoking ban. 

As far as election promises go, it’s rather light on the Tory side so far. But what do we know about Labour’s plans for office? On energy, Keir Starmer has said Labour will create an initiative called Great British Energy to focus on renewables and bring down the country’s bills. Rachael Reeves is plugging her “securonomics” and on foreign policy, David Lammy has set out his plans for “progressive realism”. Yvette Cooper is promising to get tough on crime, Bridget Phillipson is looking to start free breakfast clubs and bring in mental health workers in all schools. Wes Streeting has not been specific about reforming the NHS but has admitted that it needs root and branch changes.

A handover of power is healthy for democracies and the polls show that the electorate wants it, but voters will need to know more and fast about Labour’s real plans for government. 

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The election will be in 6 weeks and parliament will be dissolved on 30 May. It also means that summer recess initially planned for 23 July 2024 will be cancelled.

In his speech, the PM focused on defence and security saying that the last five years had been the most difficult since the Second World War. Referring to Russia’s war in Ukraine and the threat of China, Sunak said: “This election will take place at a time when the world is more dangerous than at any time since the Cold War.”

Sunak also spoke of his pride at the furlough scheme he rolled out as Chancellor during Covid, attempting to hammer home the message that he is trustworthy and deserves the electorate’s vote. But the rain and the blasting music certainly undermined the content of the speech.  

Rumours began after it was revealed that foreign secretary Lord Cameron had cut short his trip to Albania to attend a Cabinet meeting at 4:15pm while defence secretary Grant Shapps had postponed an overseas trip.

When asked at Prime Minister’s Questions whether he would call an election, Sunak was guarded, only going as far as to say that there would be an election in the second half of the year. Technically, he wasn’t lying.

The government failed to quell the rumours flying around on social media and in Whitehall. At 1:19pm today, ITV’s Political Editor Robert Peston posted on X: “For what it is worth, I think an earlier election is on. I can’t tell you why I now think that.  This is not 100% certain but close enough for me to mention to you”. 

This was followed up at 3:25pm with: “I am now even more confident that an early election is coming than I was just before lunch.  If I subsequently look an eejit, so be it”.

On the back of the positive news that inflation had dropped to 2.3 per cent last month from 3.2 per cent in March, Sunak said his economic plan was working and that if the country sticks to it, “there will be brighter days ahead”.

But Sunak’s popularity remains extremely low in opinion polls as does the Tory party more generally. Scandals and defections have become the white noise surrounding a party in disarray and it seems unlikely that Sunak truly feels he can swing the opinion polls in a mere six weeks. There are now rumours of Tory MPs filing letters of no confidence in the Prime Minister to avoid an election.

As for Labour’s preparedness, Keir Starmer told a press conference that his party has a long-term plan to rebuild Britain. He said it was fully costed, fully funded and ready to go. He listed a series of what he called Tory failures: sewage in our rivers, people waiting on trolleys in A&E, crime going unpunished and mortgages through the roof. Starmer said that, ultimately, a vote for Labour is a vote for change – unlike the Tory mentality of “party first, country second”.

Now the battle begins.  

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Matt Pottinger, a distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution and a former US deputy national security advisor, told a Policy Exchange event in Central London that Ukraine is not just Putin’s war, but Xi’s as well. 

Pottinger said: “In March of 2023, about a year after the all-out invasion had begun, Xi visited Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin and we now know that it was a turning point in this war. I believe a very strong case can be made that Xi Jinping came to regard [Ukraine] as a full-blown Chinese proxy war against Europe and the United States.”

“This is a period of new global instability and warfare and, I would say, proxy wars,” he added. 

Speaking alongside security minister Tom Tugendhat and national security advisor Lord Sedwill, Pottinger also speculated that Russia and China’s “no limits” partnership runs deep and that Xi is acquiring greater leverage over Putin. 

Tugendhat asked about China’s greater influence in eastern Russia, mentioning that Chinese names for places such as Vladivostok had returned to some maps. Could no limits actually mean, eventually, no borders?

Pottinger replied: “The degree to which Putin is sacrificing the long-term interests of Russia is profound…Russia is surrendering agency to a greater power, Beijing.”

These comments come as Putin begins his two-day visit to China. The red carpet has been rolled out for the Russian leader and he has been inspecting troops and enjoying a concert in Tiananmen Square with Xi. 

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in a recent visit to China publicly condemned Beijing for sending “critical components” to support Russia’s military-industrial base. Blinken said that Xi’s support for Putin’s war was “helping to fuel the biggest threat to [Europe’s] insecurity since the end of the Cold War”

The Ukraine war has certainly resulted in closer ties between Russia and China. Between 2021, before the war, and 2023, bilateral trade between the two grew 64 per cent to $240bn (£189bn). 

Pottinger argued that the last few years have been a story of the collapse of Western deterrence and that it must be restored and explicitly projected to the world. An example of where that deterrence is needed is Taiwan and a new volume edited by Pottinger aims to show how that is possible. In The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan, military and political leaders map out a workable strategy for the West to deter China from pursuing acts of aggression against Taiwan.

As Putin’s visit to Beijing reveals Sino-Russian relations at their closest in years, restoring deterrence will be a priority in the minds of many Western policymakers and Pottinger’s warning will be ringing in their ears.

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A man has been detained but as yet there are no confirmed details about the attacker. According to the BBC’s local correspondent Rob Cameron, the attacker is 71 years old and from a local village. Outgoing Slovakian President Zuzana Caputova called the assassination attempt an “attack on democracy”.

Fico, whose political stance has become increasingly pro-Russian and anti-EU over recent years, was holding a meeting at the House of Culture in Handlova and was greeting supporters on the street outside the building when eyewitnesses say they heard three gunshots. 

There has been an outpouring of support from European leaders. Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said his “thoughts are with Robert Fico, his loved ones, and the people of Slovakia,” while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called it a “vile attack”. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban said: “I was deeply shocked by the heinous attack against my friend, Prime Minister Robert Fico. We pray for his health and quick recovery! God bless him and his country!”

Fico, who co-founded the left-wing Direction – Social Democracy (SMER) party, has been Prime Minister of Slovakia three times, from 2006 to 2010, 2012 to 2018 and 2023-present. In 2018, he was forced to resign when he became embroiled in a scandal after a Slovakian journalist and his wife were murdered. The journalist revealed that a close aide of Fico’s had previously been a business partner of a member of the Calabrian mafia. Fico seriously mismanaged the accusations that his government had been infiltrated by the mafia. He held a tone-deaf press conference in which he stood behind a table, filled with one million Euros in cash, attempting to make fun of the corruption allegations.

When he came back into power last year, Fico closed the country’s anti-corruption office despite EU warnings and reversed Slovakia’s support for Ukraine, halting aid.

Of the attack, Peter Pellegrini, Slovakia’s president-elect, said: “An assassination attempt on one of the highest constitutional officials is an unprecedented threat to Slovak democracy. If we express different political opinions with guns in the squares, and not in polling stations, we endanger everything we have built together in 31 years of Slovak sovereignty.”

Pellegrini has also been accused of being pro-Russia and has called for “peace talks with Moscow”. According to Tomáš Valášek, a Member of the Slovak National Council, the country with Pellegrini and Fico at the helm “is poised between two possible futures”. One future closer to the EU and aligned with Brussels or another more akin to Hungary: “An angry, isolated member-state lashing out at the rest”.

Regardless of which direction it takes, no Slovakian wants political violence. 

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Mohamed Amra, alleged to be a powerful drug baron in the southern city of Marseilles who was previously convicted of aggravated robbery and charged with abduction leading to death, was being transported from Rouen to Evreux when the van was fatally ambushed.

A massive manhunt is now underway to find what some have called “France’s most wanted man”, nicknamed “La Mouche” (The Fly), and his accomplices. 

The attack comes just a day after a major report from the French Senate about the extent of the country’s problem with violent drug gangs.

The report writes: “With the simultaneous explosion of both supply and demand, no part of the national territory and no social class is beyond the reach of drugs crime… drugs traffic is infiltrating everywhere, with a concomitant exacerbation of violence.”

“The spread of drugs crime is not just the result of foreign mafias. It is also the work of structured and dangerous French organisations who act without any limit be it financial, territorial or in the exercise of violence. The intensification of drugs traffic in rural areas and medium-sized towns is accompanied by a spectacular and disturbing explosion of violence which can expose citizens to veritable scenes of war.”

Éric Dupond-Moretti, the justice minister, said: “All my thoughts are with the victims, their families and their colleagues. Everything will be done to find the authors of this ignoble crime. They will be arrested, they will be judged and they will be punished in accordance with the level of the crime they have committed.”

According to reports, gunmen rammed the prison convoy from two cars before opening fire with pump-action shotguns. The cars were later found burnt out. 

French President Emmanuel Macron said: “Everything is being done to find the perpetrators of this crime so that justice can be done in the name of the French people. We will be intractable.”

The attack will no doubt fan the flames of the French far-right ahead of the upcoming European parliament elections next month. Chairman of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party and MEP Jordan Bardella said: “It is with immense sadness that we learn of the attack … and of the death of the guards. France is being hit by a veritable savagery every day.”

Bardella is a critic of mass immigration and what he sees as its implications. As the journalist Cole Stangler writes, Bardella takes aim at “crime, Islamism, terrorism, declining public services and the loss of French identity.” Bardella recently told a rally in Perpignan: “You’ve understood it, my friends. This election will also be a great referendum on mass immigration.” The hard-right star is currently polling well above the candidate from Macron’s party. 

The consequences of this ambush and what it reveals about the seriousness of France’s problem with drug gang violence will reverberate through this summer’s European elections (6-9 June) and beyond. 

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In a significant shifting of the Kremlin’s pecking order, Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s 68-year-old defence minister of 12 years has been replaced by economist Andrei Belousov, a 65-year-old former deputy prime minister.

Citing the need to be more financially innovative to win the war, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “The Ministry of Defence should be absolutely open to innovation, to the introduction of all advanced ideas. Therefore, the president chose Belousov’s candidacy.”

Shoigu is now head of the Security Council, taking over from Nikolai Patrushev who has been one of Putin’s closest advisors – the two have been friends since their time in the Leningrad KGB in the 1970s.

Putin’s reshuffle comes at a time of serious financial worry for Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned energy giant. What was once the most profitable company in Russia selling huge amounts of gas and oil to Europe has just reported losses of $7 billion in 2023.

Western sanctions on Russian gas after its invasion of Ukraine have forced Gazprom to take its business elsewhere. There are many buyers in Asia, notably China and India, but Asian countries pay less than their European counterparts.

For example, last year Russian gas was sold to several European countries at $12.9 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The same gas was sold to China at $6.6/mmBtu.

Add to the sanctions the mysterious underwater explosions and consequent gas leaks on the Nord Stream 1 (NS1) and Nord Stream 2 (NS2) natural gas pipelines between Russia and Europe earlier in the war and it’s not hard to see why Putin is worried.

These concerns will no doubt be at the heart of Putin’s decision to appoint an economist to lead the war effort. What’s more, Belousov doesn’t have 50,000 Russian soldiers’ deaths on his CV as Shoigu now does. Belousov, at least in military terms, has a clean record and is not open to the same criticisms as Shoigu.

But, while there are undeniable difficulties, Russia is not in any financial crisis. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Russia to grow 3.2 per cent this year, compared with a strong 2.7 per cent for the  US or UK’s measly 0.5 per cent. Russian defence spending has surged to 6 per cent of GDP, which has fuelled economic growth.

That is fine for now, but as Alexander Kolyandr writes in The Spectator: “Russia is mortgaging its future to pay for today’s war and economic growth.” Lower productivity, a lack of foreign investment and war debt is all coming down the pipe while Putin’s war machine grinds on.

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Rumours had been swirling in Holyrood that Swinney’s meeting with Forbes last week was centred on these negotiations. When Forbes granted her support, many guessed it was at the concession of making her deputy FM.  

There was no doubt Swinney and the SNP old guard wanted to avoid a second bitter leadership election in two years. Last year, Kate Forbes proved far more popular than people thought, coming behind outgoing first minister Humza Yousaf by just 5 percentage points.  

On her new role, Forbes said: “This is a moment of extraordinary privilege for me. Having previously served in cabinet, I know the duty that all ministers have to reflect the government’s priorities and the missions that drive them.”

First minister John Swinney outlined his government’s priorities and the focus of his new cabinet. He said: “Ahead of my appointment as First Minister, I committed to working collaboratively across the Parliament to address the pressing issues facing the people of Scotland.”

“With that in mind, I have selected a Cabinet team that blends experience and energy, with a strong focus on the priorities my government will pursue – eradicating child poverty, driving economic growth, meeting climate obligations and investing in our vital public services.”

“My overriding priority will be to work to eradicate child poverty in Scotland, an issue on which real progress has been made through measures such as the Scottish Child Payment. The government I lead will maximise every lever at our disposal to tackle the scourge of poverty in our country. A strong economy supports the delivery of services on which people depend.”

There are only two changes in this cabinet from Humza Yousaf’s. Shona Robison loses her role as DFM but remains in the cabinet with the finance portfolio and Màiri McAllan loses the economy portfolio but retains the Net Zero brief. 

Many critics are calling for an election and rebuking this as a continuity cabinet. Deputy Scottish Labour leader Jackie Baillie said:  “After 17 years of failure, every single institution in Scotland is now weaker and those responsible remain at the heart of government. This is a continuity cabinet that cannot be trusted to fix the chaos and instability they have created.” 

Scottish Tory MSP Meghan Gallacher brought up what she viewed as the inconsistency of Kate Forbes’s position. In last year’s leadership race, Forbes ran on the slogan “continuity won’t cut it”. But, Gallacher says, Forbes seems to have very happily joined the continuity government. It’s also worth remembering that Swinney was Sturgeon’s deputy for eight years. 

So, in what direction is Scottish politics headed? Swinney told reporters that his policy programme was “anchored in the centre-left of Scottish politics”. One could almost see Kate Forbes smarting by his side; few would put her on the centre-left, certainly not on social issues. 

Swinney has emphasised unity as an important part of his job, healing a divided party. That requires compromise. As does the fact that the SNP is now a minority government after losing its powersharing agreement with the Greens. While it may frustrate those in power, democracy is all about compromise, and it’s time Scotland rediscovered this principle.

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At an event in Edinburgh this morning, Swinney confirmed that he will be standing for leader. The former deputy first minister and SNP party leader from 2000-2004 said: “I want to build on the work of the SNP government to create a modern, diverse, dynamic Scotland that will ensure opportunity for all of her citizens. I want to unite the SNP and unite Scotland for independence.”

Kate Forbes met with Swinney yesterday sparking rumours that they were going to cut a deal, with Swinney offering Forbes a return to the Cabinet. Today, Swinney confirmed such rumours by saying that Forbes would have a “significant” role in his government. There is speculation that Forbes may be Swinney’s deputy first minister.

During last year’s leadership contest following Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation, the incumbent leader had cast doubt on Forbes’s suitability for the top job because of her religious beliefs. However, he seems to have changed his tune. Referring to her as a “friend and a colleague,” Swinney said: “She is an intelligent, creative, thoughtful person who has much to contribute to our national life and if elected, I will make sure Kate is able to make that contribution.”

In a statement, Forbes said: “I welcomed, and embrace, his commitment to ensure internal respect for robust and divergent debate in the party, which is the lifeblood of any democratic institution like the SNP. I was also greatly heartened by his drive to restore a sense of courtesy and dignity to the way we conduct ourselves as a party and as a Parliament.

“If we want to rewin the trust of the people, tone and language matter in the way we conduct ourselves…I have concluded that the best way to deliver the urgent change Scotland needs is to join with John Swinney and advocate for that reform agenda within the Scottish government. I can therefore today announce that I will not be seeking nomination as the next SNP leader.”

Swinney was eager to quash any suggestions that he would be merely an interim leader or caretaker. He said: “I am offering to lead my party through the Westminster elections, to lead us beyond the 2026 elections, to contest, which I intend to win for the SNP and for Scotland.”

Forbes may have made a wise call given the gloomy election polls that predict a Labour resurgence in Scotland. Her plan might be to let the unpopular SNP establishment continue until it all comes crashing down (if the polls are correct) and then start with a clean slate. 

At UCLA, counter-protestors attacked a large encampment of pro-Palestine protestors with sticks and poles, removing their makeshift wooden barricades leading to violent clashes. Earlier, Gene Block, the UCLA chancellor, labelled the encampment on the central courtyard illegal and said that police would start making arrests. 

Mary Osako, a vice-chancellor at the university, said: “Horrific acts of violence occurred at the encampment tonight and we immediately called law enforcement for mutual aid support. The fire department and medical personnel are on the scene. We are sickened by this senseless violence and it must end”.

Meanwhile, at Columbia University in New York City, police raided a pro-Palestine encampment that had taken over the famous Hamilton Building. Between Columbia and City College in Harlem, police arrested around 300 protestors. Columbia said it asked the police to “restore safety and order to our community”.

New York Mayor, Eric Adams, said the campus takeover was orchestrated by outside agents. “There are people who are harmful and they’re trying to radicalise our children and we cannot ignore this,” Adams told reporters. When asked whether the police response was an incursion on students’ right to protest, Adams said that while free speech is “the cornerstone” of our society, “there is nothing peaceful about barricading buildings, destroying property or dismantling security cameras”.

Rebecca Weiner, a deputy commissioner for the New York Police Department, said that some protestors were already known to police and that this operation was about stopping the “normalisation and mainstreaming of rhetoric associated with terrorism that has now become pretty common on college campuses”.

Elsewhere, at the University of Wisconsin-Madison police arrested around a dozen protesters while in New Orleans’ historic French Quarter, at Tulane University, police were accused of using excessive force to subdue protesters. 

Fresh protests are planned at six British universities this evening and tomorrow, including Sheffield, Bristol, Leeds and Newcastle. Back in February, protestors at the University of Glasgow staged a 15-day sit-in in protest of the university’s investment in the defence industry and then voted for a pro-Palestine rector who vowed to use his role to stand up for the people of Gaza. 

The crisis in the Middle East has been firmly imported into schools and universities in the West. What’s more, the political polarisation that defined the anti-racism riots and protests of 2020 seems to be alive and well. Those running British universities will be well aware of the old adage that when America sneezes, Britain catches a cold. They will be hoping this latest affliction is not contagious.

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In his resignation speech today, he said he was not willing to make deals to overcome the impending confidence votes in the Scottish parliament where the SNP is the largest party but has a minority. Healing the political divide in Scotland, he added, must be done by another leader. 

There will now most likely be an SNP leadership election (the second in two years), although the party could delay that by appointing an interim leader. All we can be sure of at the moment is that the SNP and Scotland face a future of political uncertainty that has cheered up Unionists tremendously.

Yousaf’s downfall was precipitated by disagreements with the Scottish Greens, specifically over climate and trans rights legislation. He ended the powersharing agreement last week, hoping that the SNP could govern effectively with a minority of 63 MSPs in Holyrood. That means the government would have been forced to gain support for its legislation from other parties on a case-by-case basis. 

Yousaf today admitted that he underestimated the hurt his termination of the Bute House agreement would cause to his Green colleagues. He did not admit his failure to foresee the confidence votes that would be tabled against him and his party.

Former first minister and Alba leader Alex Salmond told Radio 4 that Yousaf had phoned Alba early this morning to negotiate a deal, but was blocked by the SNP “old guard”. No details of who constituted that old guard were forthcoming. 

The content of Yousaf’s resignation speech was predictable to those familiar with his political outlook. He mentioned minority rights, spoke of the success of British multiculturalism, rebuked populism and reminded the country of his strong stance on Israel’s war in Gaza. He started tearing up as he thanked his family for their support. 

Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s leader in Westminster, said: “Humza Yousaf has served Scotland with integrity, compassion and commitment. The challenges he has faced have been huge, yet at every turn he has led from the front. There can be no doubt that he has now laid the groundwork required to take our country forward.”

Flynn, who some had speculated would be in the running to take over from Yousaf, publicly backed the MSP for Perthshire North and former SNP leader, John Swinney. “There’s only one person with the experience to do the job and unite the party. I would encourage John Swinney to stand,” he told the News Agents podcast. 

Swinney, who thanked the outgoing first minister for “leading the country with empathy, care and an emphasis always on bringing people together,” said he was “actively considering” standing for SNP leadership. Kate Forbes, another contender for the leadership, said: “As First Minister Humza Yousaf cared passionately about Scotland. Few of us will forget his statesmanship and compassion on Gaza. He is an honourable man, who displayed dignity and humility today. I wish him and Nadia well with their impending new arrival in the summer.” Forbes has not commented on whether she will run.

Yousaf’s resignation has thrown into sharp relief the significance of who a government chooses to get into bed with. There is always someone to the right or left of a government, and the Greens were always more progressive than large parts of the SNP. When faced with fiscal or biological reality, whether on climate targets or on trans rights, Yousaf as leader was accountable to the country and had to go against his progressive ideals. Co-leaders of the Scottish Greens Patrick Harvey and Lorna Slater, as Jenny Hjul so eloquently wrote in Reaction last week, had no such obligations to surrender to reality nor the electorate, despite their important positions. Yet, the Faustian pact that Nicola Sturgeon made with the Greens, a difficult inheritance for Yousaf, gave them outsized power and influence.

Yousaf said in his resignation speech that Scottish independence is “frustratingly close”. After 17 years of SNP governments that have yielded little improvements in most aspects of Scottish life, few would agree with that claim. Add to that a potential Labour revival as the polls suggest in this year’s general elections, and Yousaf’s comment seems nothing short of outlandish.

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The purpose of Blinken’s visit was to warn Beijing about aiding Russia’s war in Ukraine. China has refrained from giving any weapons directly to Russia, a country it has a “no limits” partnership with, but the US is concerned that Chinese manufactured parts are making their way to Russia and are “having a material effect in Ukraine”.

Over five-and-a-half hours of talks with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi, Blinken told reporters: “I reiterated our serious concern about the PRC providing components that are powering Russia’s brutal war of aggression against Ukraine.”

“China is the top supplier of machine tools, microelectronics, nitrocellulose, which is critical to making munitions and rocket propellants, and other dual-use items that Moscow is using to ramp up its defence industrial base.”

China has said it is “not a producer of or party involved in the Ukraine crisis.” Blinken disagrees. He said: “Russia would struggle to sustain its assault on Ukraine without China’s support.”

This moment of tension comes after a recent thawing in relations between the mutually nervous superpowers. “Planet Earth is big enough for both our countries to succeed”, Chinese leader Xi Jinping proclaimed back in November on a visit to San Francisco. Prior to that, Joe Biden’s visit to China last June was also positive. “We’re back to direct, open, clear communications,” he declared confidently. 

And while relations are still better than they were in early 2023, after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial Taiwan visit and the US shooting down a Chinese spy balloon over its territory, the old reality is back. This was gestured at three weeks ago when US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen blamed Chinese manufacturers for flooding the world’s markets with cheap goods.

But it wasn’t just Blinken doing the warning. Wang and Xi were clear that the US must not step on “red lines”, a clear reference to Taiwan, which China sees as its own. Just days ago, the US Senate passed a $95bn bill providing defence aid for Taiwan and Ukraine. It also included $8bn to counter China’s military might.

China is also frustrated at what it sees as America’s economic suppression of its development. China is facing large economic problems (a property crisis combined with a demography crisis) that it is hoping to fix through an export-led recovery. As a result, the White House’s Chips Act, aimed at reducing its reliance on China for semiconductors by bolstering US production, has angered the Chinese government. 

With regards to the US stifling China’s economic recovery, Xi said: “This is a fundamental issue that must be addressed, just like the first button of a shirt that must be put right, in order for the China-U.S. relationship to truly stabilise, improve and move forward.”

When asked about the matter, Blinken said: “We want China’s economy to grow, [but] the way China grows matters. That means fostering a healthy economic relationship where American workers and firms are treated equally and fairly.”

By recent standards Sino-American relations are better than they have been since Donald Trump after his election in 2016 made US policy more robust, in the process creating a bipartisan US consensus that China was a threat rather than an economic opportunity.

The US is still concerned about Fentanyl from China exacerbating the American opioid crisis and, as Blinken’s visit has shown, its indirect aid to Russia. Conversely, China is vexed at America’s industrial policy scuppering the competitiveness of its vital exports. The countries will hold initial talks on artificial intelligence in the coming weeks. 

But the tone of Blinken’s visit suggests that Biden and Xi’s chummy San Fran honeymoon was an aberration, not the rule.

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The letter is in response to WhatsApp messages from the officers’ group chat that have surfaced, revealing that one officer said two teenagers had been “proper butchered”. 

Valdo Calocane, a paranoid schizophrenic, murdered Barnaby Webber and Grace O’Malley-Kumar, both 19, and Ian Coates, 65, in a random attack in Nottingham city centre on 13 June last year.

In a move that she hoped would make a difference to the way police speak about victims, Emma Webber, Barnaby’s mother, wrote a public letter in The Times. This was after Kate Meynell, the chief constable of Nottinghamshire Police, whose son was on the WhatsApp group, reportedly refused to give Webber’s private letter to the officers. 

In her letter, she wrote: “I know you are police officers, but you are also human beings, and very likely that a number of you are parents as well. Given this, the callous, degrading and desensitised manner of your comments has caused more trauma than you can imagine.”

“When you say ‘a couple of students have been proper butchered’ did you stop to think about the absolute terror that they felt in the moment when they were ambushed and repeatedly stabbed by a man who had planned his attack and lay waiting in the shadows for them?”

Webber made clear that she did not want to publicise the names of the officers: “My aim is not to cause undue shame, or to have anyone publicly vilified; there’s no need to add yet more pain; I just hope that by reaching out to educate and explain, my voice might make a difference.”

The Times also revealed that Nottinghamshire Police has been sacking officers and holding disciplinary hearings in private. The families of the victims have not been informed of the internal processes. 

This example of misconduct is the latest in a long line of scandals that have led the nation to question the culture within police forces. This has been particularly notable in the Metropolitan Police. Last February, a tribunal heard that officers in a WhatsApp group had sent messages that praised a rapist and made offensive remarks about the Holocaust. Two serving officers – and six former colleagues – were found guilty of gross misconduct. 

The subsequent investigations into Wayne Couzens and the officers around him after he murdered Sarah Everard in March 2021 also revealed a culture of misogyny, racism and violence. Not only did Wayne Couzens have a reputation for previous complaints about his behaviour towards women, but again, on WhatsApp groups he was part of, police officers joked about rape and sexual violence against women. 

As of September last year, around 1,000 Met officers were suspended or on restricted duties and 450 were being investigated on historic allegations of sexual or domestic violence. Due to the number of gross misconduct hearings, Deputy Assistant Commissioner Stuart Cundy said that up to 60 officers a month could face the sack over the next two years. 

Emma Webber told BBC Radio 5 today that “when you lose your humanity and your respect for life, I don’t think you should be working in those services”. After too many police failures and examples of an abhorrent culture, the nation will be thinking the same thing. 

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On a visit to Warsaw, the Prime Minister made the announcement at a joint press conference with Nato Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg.  

Sunak said: “We cannot keep expecting America to pay any price or pay any burden if we ourselves are unwilling to make greater sacrifices for our own security.

“So I’m proud that the United Kingdom is increasing our defence spending to £87bn a year, the biggest strengthening of our national defence in a generation, guaranteeing our position as the second-largest defence power in Nato after the US.

The PM pointed out that Britain isn’t the only Nato member bolstering its defence spending. On the contrary, other European countries such as Poland, Germany, Norway and the Baltic nations are all stepping up to take greater responsibility. “And I’m confident whether in months or years others will follow too,” he added. 

This commitment follows the recent resignation of armed forces minister James Heappey, who had criticised the government for failing to invest in defence. Heappey said today’s news was “enormous and hugely needed in the MoD.”

The government has been under pressure from leading military officials and advisors to increase spending in the face of rising geopolitical tensions. Just yesterday in Reaction, former defence secretary Michael Fallon called for an increase in defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP for all Nato countries. 

Former defence secretary Ben Wallace, who had insisted on a cross-party commitment to 3 per cent of GDP as a minimum spending level on British defence as recently as last month, welcomed the announcement, despite it coming up short of his initial demand. 

It was also supported by two former armed forces ministers, Tobias Ellwood and Mark Francois, with the latter resorting to Latin to express his approval: “Si vis pacem, para bellum.” If you want peace, as the saying goes, prepare for war. 

Sunak was eager to stress that, while Britain is “not on the brink of war”, we are living in a more dangerous world. The question now is whether 2.5 per cent is enough, bearing in mind spending will not reach that peak for another six years. For context, in 1944, defence spending consumed 50 per cent of Britain’s GDP.

The calls for 3 per cent are unlikely to cease. But today’s announcement is a step in the right direction, which will please the defence industry and those in politics who have been raising the alarm bells about increasingly hostile superpowers, Russia and China.

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It will run for 44 days and over 500 million of the 969 million eligible voters are expected to take part. That means roughly one in eight people on Earth constitute the Indian electorate.  

It’s fair to say this is a logistical nightmare. To make matters even more challenging, the country’s election rules state that voting booths must be within two kilometres of every registered voter. Rajiv Kumar, Chief Election Commissioner has insisted that his commission will “take democracy to every corner of India”. 

“Our teams will walk the extra mile to reach every voter, whether they are in jungles or on snowy mountains. We will go on horseback, elephants, mules or helicopters. We will reach everywhere,” Kumar added.

The incumbent Narendra Modi of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is seeking a third term and has not hesitated to stifle descent. His closest rival, current Chief Minister of Delhi and leader of the Aam Aadmi Party (Common Man’s Party) Arvind Kejriwal is in jail on trumped-up corruption charges. 

Another party challenging the BJP is the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). This is a weak coalition of over 30 parties, which includes the only pan-Indian party that can rival the BJP: Congress. Congress is led by the heir of the powerful Nehru-Gandhi political dynasty, Rahul Gandhi. Rahul is particularly unpopular, having led Congress to two previous defeats and even losing his safe seat at the last election in 2019.

As Kapil Komireddi told me on the Reaction Podcast, these elections are free but not necessarily fair. Voters can choose who to vote for free from coercion, but the opposition has been starved of the financial means to campaign and the country’s mainstream media will not air any criticism of Modi. 

Komireddi also said these elections were of “existential significance” for the country. The rise of explicit Hindu nationalism from the BJP seemed to reach its apotheosis in January when Modi inaugurated the Ram Temple on the grounds of the old Babri mosque which was razed by Hindu mobs in the 90s. 

Speaking of the importance of these elections, Komireddi said: “We could come out of this election as the Hindu version of Pakistan. We could come out of this election as a plebiscitary autocracy where you have elections but the big man rules and one religion has primacy over all others.”

In law, Komireddi added, everyone might be equal. “But in life, practitioners of one faith end up being treated as natural citizens and everyone else is a second-class citizen.”

Fragile inter-religious relations, specifically between the Hindu majority and the Muslim minority, are nothing new. Violence has also involved the Sikh, Christian and Jewish communities in India’s modern history. 

But what seems to be unique about Modi’s India, which differs from almost every other time since its independence from Britain in 1947, is the mass political acceptance of the idea that different religions cannot live peacefully together. This is combined with the notion that only Hindus can be truly Indian citizens.

Secularism was the founding principle of the Indian Republic – the aspiration of religious harmony. This aspiration is almost gone from mainstream Indian politics and a third Modi term could make that terminal.  

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Sunak said that through the attack, the “despotic regime” had shown its true colours. Iran aims to “plunge the Middle East into crisis” and engage in escalation, Sunak said. 

On Saturday, Iran attacked Israel’s territory for the first time in a war that it has previously fought through deniable proxies, assassinations and espionage. Iran’s ambush was made in revenge for an earlier attack, widely believed to have been carried out by Israel, on the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital of Damascus on 1 April which killed 13 people, including a senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and seven other IRGC officers. Shortly after it, Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that the bombing would not go unpunished.

On Saturday and into Sunday, Iran fired over 300 weapons at Israel which included 110 ballistic missiles and 36 cruise missiles. Most of these missiles and drones were intercepted by Israel’s air defence system, the US military, the Jordanian military and the RAF. Some have speculated the French military helped as well. 

One surprising element of Iran’s attack is that the Gulf states may have helped defend Israel. The Economist wrote: “Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, might have played an indirect role as well, since they host Western air-defense systems, surveillance and refueling aircraft that would have been vital for the effort.”

Israel signed a normalisation deal with the UAE and Bahrain in 2020 and it was thought to be close to signing a similar deal with American ally Saudi Arabia before Hamas’s attack on 7 October. It has been widely speculated that Iran aided and abetted Hamas’s attack to destroy this latter normalisation process which would leave Iran ostracised in the region.  

Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet met this afternoon to discuss the weekend’s events. Government spokesman David Mencer said that Israel “retains all its options”: “We reserve the right to do everything in our power, and we will do everything in our power to defend this country.” Another reported conclusion from the meeting, which seems to be at odds with US President Joe Biden’s calls for restraint, is that Israel wants to embark on military action against Iran coordinated with the US. 

In the UK, foreign secretary Lord Cameron addressed the possibility of an Israeli retaliation today. Cameron said: “If you’re sitting in Israel this morning, you’re thinking quite rightly, we have every right to respond to this, and they do. But we are urging that they shouldn’t escalate.”

Leader of the opposition Sir Keir Starmer was in agreement with the government’s decision to help defend Israel but was more forceful both on the need for scaled-up sanctions on Tehran but also on the need for restraint from Israel. He said that a full-scale conflict in the Middle East is in no one’s interest.

The noted British military theorist Basil Liddell Hart once wrote that “War is the realm of the unexpected.” It’s a notion that will resonate with many in Israel at the moment; just as the brutal 7 October massacre was unexpected, so too is the relative support of the Gulf states and especially the explicit military support of Jordan, a country it has not always been on peaceful terms with. 

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