On Christmas Eve, Downing Street hailed the agreement as a victory for the UK, with a spokesperson telling journalists that “we have signed the first free trade agreement based on zero tariffs and zero quotas that has ever been achieved with the EU.”

Speaking from Downing Street, Boris Johnson said: “We have taken back control of every jot and tittle of our regulation in a way that is complete and unfettered,” adding that it is now “up to us all together as a newly and truly independent nation to realise the immensity of this moment and make the most of it.”

The Prime Minister made an effort to show that he intends to make immediate use of the UK’s new-found regulatory freedom, noting that both Britain and the EU will benefit from the “stimulus of regulatory competition.” He also announced a new Turing scheme to replace Erasmus, which will send British students “not just to European universities, but to the best universities in the world.”

Johnson’s two immediate predecessors, David Cameron and Theresa May, both praised the agreement. “It’s a good end to a difficult year with some positive news. Trade deal is very welcome – and a vital step in building a new relationship with the EU as friends, neighbours and partners. Many congratulations to the UK negotiating team,” said Cameron, while May said it “provides confidence to business and helps keep trade flowing.”

In Brussels, the tone was more sombre, with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen saying during a press conference that “at the end of a successful negotiation, I normally feel joy, but today I only feel quiet satisfaction and, frankly speaking, relief.”

Von der Leyen added: “I know this is a difficult day for some, and to our friends in the United Kingdom, I want to say that parting is such sweet sorrow but, to use the line from TS Eliot, what we call the beginning is often the end. And to make an end is often a beginning. So, to all Europeans, I think it is time to leave Brexit behind.”

EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier began his statement with a play on his famous line about impending Brexit deadlines. “The clock is no longer ticking,” he said.

Following the announcement of a deal, the European commission sent the draft treaty to member states, with ministers on the council of the EU expected to agree on provisional application of the treaty on 1 January. The UK parliament will meet on Wednesday, December 30 to ratify the treaty – it is expected to pass comfortably.

Downing Street is focused on winning the support of the European Research Group of Conservative eurosceptic backbenchers, who have said they will convene a Star Chamber of lawyers to scrutinise the treaty before the vote. Johnson briefed members of the group on the contents of the deal before the announcement.

Those close to the Prime Minister were comforted by Nigel Farage’s response, which was less oppositional than expected. The former Brexit Party leader said: “Boris will be seen as the man that finished the job. Perhaps not perfectly, but he’s done what he said he’d do, on the big picture. … The war is over. It has gone on for decades in this country… now we’re out.”

Johnson distanced himself from the warlike language though, choosing instead to highlight future cooperation.

Labour leader Keir Starmer is expected to announce his intention to whip his party to vote for the deal.

Operation Stack, the process through which lorries are lined up on the side of the M20 for days at a time, has been initiated, and the Prime Minister is expected to chair a Cobra meeting later this morning. The desperate hope in Whitehall will be that the French will reverse the freight ban when the decision is reviewed tomorrow; as now-Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab famously said a couple of years ago: the extent to which Britain’s import capacity relies on the Dover-Calais crossing is remarkable.

This short-term crisis comes at the worst possible time for the British freight industry and the economy as a whole, given that Dover has been the centre-point of no-deal preparations. If the critical new infrastructure designed to deal with Brexit is overburdened by these events, the impact of a no deal Brexit could be exacerbated. It is unlikely that even the “reasonably worst case scenario” for no deal envisioned France cutting off the border ten days before the deadline.

For Europe, there is now a pertinent question over whether the barn door has been shut after the horse has bolted, as happened earlier this year when countries belatedly suspended flights from China. Given that this new strain of the virus has been circulating in London – one of the world’s most globally-connected cities – for weeks, the chances that the strain arrived in mainland Europe some time ago and has already seeded itself are rather high. In Germany, recent weeks have seen a major and seemingly inexplicable spike in cases and hospitalisations.

Indeed, it’s probably not a coincidence that Britain is genuinely “world-leading” on the genome sequencing front. The suggestion from some scientists is that we are merely the first to spot a wave that is already crashing into Europe.

The seriousness of this situation should not be understated. If NERVTAG’s initial analysis proves correct – and that’s still a big if (scientists say they have “moderate confidence”) – then coronavirus will be almost impossible to temporarily suppress through lockdowns, with countries across the continent left managing a steady increase in new cases and hospitalisations. For health providers, such as the NHS, which have a low excess bed capacity, this could prove disastrous.

We should have more clarity on both the scientific and trade fronts in the coming hours and days. For now, we can only hope that the preliminary scientific analysis has got this wrong, or otherwise we will likely see the entire country, and much of Europe, enter a strict lockdown for an indefinite period. As Tom Whipple, The Times’ science editor, wrote last night: “If this mutation really does what scientists fear, then the situation is desperate.”

But vaccines are here and the race is on to get the jab to the vulnerable this winter, with a regulatory decision expected in the next few days on the Oxford vaccine. The UK has ordered up to 100m doses.

These “Tier 4” rules will shutter all non-essential businesses, including gyms and salons which remained open in Tier 3, and reduce the outdoor household mixing limit to just two people. This will come into effect at 00:01 tomorrow morning.

Most depressing is the fact that Christmas is now effectively cancelled for a third of England. Few people were planning large meet-ups in the first place, but this development will ensure, for many, a very lonely Christmas week. For young professionals living alone, Christmas 2020 will be an extended period of doom-scrolling through social media feeds. They won’t be able to travel to see family.

Speaking at a hastily-arranged Downing Street press conference, the Prime Minister said: “It is my duty to take the difficult decisions, to do what is right to protect the people of this country.”

Britain – and potentially much of the world – will through the coming months face the consequences of a change in the character of the coronavirus epidemic. The virus has evolved. While this is to be expected with infectious diseases, and while, thankfully, the evolved Covid is not more deadly, it is much more transmissible. The government believes it could be 70 per cent more transmissible – this is surprising, serious and incredibly consequential.

This new strain – named VUI2020/12/01 – has very rapidly got hold of Kent and London since the beginning of this month, providing an early indication of how it will change the game across the country in the coming weeks. The mutated Covid already accounts for 62 per cent of new cases in London, with some of the capital’s largest NHS Trusts suddenly overwhelmed by a wave of new hospital admissions.

Take a look at the admission figures to Barts NHS Trust in London. They’re rising at a frightening rate, and the trust is thought to be within days of being overwhelmed.

Now, a massive question mark hovers over whether Tier 4 restrictions will be enough to suppress VUI2020/12/01. Tier 3 restrictions failed immeasurably, and the national “circuit-breaker” last month failed to reduce the reproduction rate much. With this mutation predicted to be increasing the reproduction rate by around 0.4 per cent, some believe there is little chance that anything other than a strict national lockdown of the style we saw in March will make the epidemic shrink.

In any case, we should probably write off the first quarter of 2021. The vast majority of us will likely be under severe restrictions until the completion of phase one of the vaccination rollout.

At least there is some Christmas cheer in the fact that the approval process for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is now reportedly in the final stage, with a decision expected in the coming week. This will ease the logistical burden on the NHS and speed up the rollout by orders of magnitude. More help is on the way.

Initial analysis suggests the hackers gained access via the cybersecurity company SolarWinds, whose software is used by numerous US government agencies. When SolarWinds was compromised, hackers implanted a backdoor into a software update which was then downloaded by US departments as well as a plethora of private companies, allowing the hackers to access their systems. 

A second cybersecurity firm, FireEye, was the subject of a similar hack, although it is used by fewer official government networks. Robert Fox reported for Reaction on this, on Wednesday. Read it here.

Now, however, there are fears that the hack went much further than SolarWinds, and is much more serious than previously thought. In a statement, the cybersecurity division in the Department of Homeland Security, CISA, has warned that the breach came as a result of several lines of attack. “CISA has evidence of additional initial access vectors, other than the SolarWinds platform; however, these are still being investigated,” the statement said.

The sheer scale of the breach looks remarkable and incredibly dangerous. For six to nine months, suspected Russian hackers may have had access to truckloads of the American federal government’s most sensitive data, with everything from the coding of the coronavirus vaccine to next generation military equipment potentially siphoned off to Moscow.

Recent reports suggest the hackers may even have breached the US Energy Department and National nuclear Security Administration, two agencies which between them handle the nuclear stockpile of the United States. This would, if proven, be the biggest compromise of the US national security enterprise in history.

But perhaps more worrying is the fact that the US government still has very little knowledge of the extent of the damage. Federal investigators have been combing through government networks in recent days to determine what hackers have accessed or stolen, but this is a process which will take time. Washington’s biggest fear will be that, while investigations are ongoing, American adversaries might seek to use the information they’ve ascertained to destabilise the country ahead of a fragile period.

For this reason, national security experts have been aghast at the lack of a direct response from the White House.

In a column in the New York Times, Thomas Bossert, Trump’s former homeland security adviser, says: “At the worst possible time, when the US government is at its most vulnerable – during a presidential transition and a devastating public health crisis – the networks of the federal government… are compromised by a foreign nation. We need to understand the scale and significance of what is happening.”

Bossert adds: “While the Russians did not have the time to gain complete control over every network they hacked, they most certainly did gain it over hundreds of them. It will take years to know for certain which networks the Russians control and which ones they just occupy. The logical conclusion is that we must act as if the Russian government has control of all the networks it has penetrated.”

He says it is unclear what the Russians intend to do next. Bossert warns that the access the Russians now enjoy could be used for far more than simply spying.

“The US military and intelligence community must be placed on increased alert; all elements of national power must be placed on the table. While we must reserve our right to unilateral self-defence, allies must be rallied to the cause. The importance of coalitions will be especially important to punishing Russia and navigating this crisis without uncontrolled escalation.”

At first glance, it may sound as though Bossert is being alarmist, but his recent positions in government place him in good stead to understand the sheer scale of the damage that could be done. Cyber attacks are difficult for governments and the media – they happen in the dark and are picked out gradually – but this remarkable story may quickly come to dominate the news agenda.

The most powerful government in the world has likely just suffered its most significant security breach from an external power since the Cold War, if not before. It is worth noting that, since investigations are ongoing, this hack is still very much active.

Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen were due to speak at 7pm tonight to discuss the latest on Brexit talks. This phone call is most likely to be a stock-take, we are told, rather than a breakthrough moment. Yet, whisper it quietly, we may have a Brexit deal by next week, if not earlier. All the signals emanating from both Brussels and London suggest the two negotiating teams are moving towards each other at pace, with minor breakthroughs occurring in several areas.

For instance, this morning, it was leaked that agreement had been reached on procurement, with both sides committing to “equal treatment” on bidding for public sector contracts from British and European firms. Those who saw Brexit as an opportunity to “Buy British” will be disappointed. But they shouldn’t be. Most economic analysts believe it’s a coup for the British business, given that the EU’s public procurement market is much, much bigger than the UK’s. 

Speaking to a conference at the European Parliament today, EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier, who is not usually one for rosy language, sounded remarkably optimistic. “Good progress,” he said, adding that a deal was “possible” by as early as tomorrow. Few people expect this to be the case, however. If there are no hitches – a very big if – it’s more likely that a deal will be finalised over the weekend.

As has been reported in the tabloids, a top secret prime ministerial trip that was pencilled in for Friday/Saturday has been cancelled at the last minute. Reaction has been told this would have been a Christmas visit to a military base. Downing Street claims the cancellation is down to logistical issues, but it all seems a bit too convenient.

Another reason for a deal this weekend? The European Parliament is kicking up a fuss over the lack of time it has had to scrutinise the legal text. Senior MEPs said today that they will not be able to ratify any UK-EU treaty before the end of the transition unless the deal is concluded by Sunday.

Albeit, we probably shouldn’t take self-aggrandising MEPs too seriously. If push comes to shove, the European Parliament would be cudgelled into doing what the Commission wants it to do. But this pressure does make an imminent breakthrough ever more important.

Everything should be much clearer soon. 

3 Tiers for everyone 

Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire and Hertfordshire will all move into Tier 3 restrictions from Saturday, as will parts of Surrey, East Essex, Cambridgeshire and Hampshire. By my rough calculations, this will mean that almost 70 per cent of England’s population is now living under Tier 3 restrictions, a remarkable figure.

Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, issued a sobering analysis of the escalating crisis across the country.  “In the south-east of England, cases are up 46 per cent in the last week, and hospital admissions are up by more than a third. In the east of England, cases are up two-thirds in the last week, and hospital admissions are up by nearly half,” he said.

More worrying is the fact that Tier 3 does not appear to be doing the trick, as cases – and more importantly the number of people being hospitalised – is rising quite dramatically in areas already under the most severe restrictions. This suggests that we are hurtling towards a situation where the government will implement either a Tier 4 or another national lockdown. We are back to square one.

For a sense of the trajectory we are on, remember that when Tory MPs voted for these measures a couple of weeks ago, they were quietly assured by Downing Street that today’s review would see swathes of England downgraded to Tier 1.

Rishi dishes one last time 

Rishi Sunak has extended the furlough scheme once again, from March to April 2021, in a final splash of cash before the Treasury’s focus turns to saving money. The Chancellor has also confirmed the next Budget will take place on 3 March.

If we are to take Sunak’s public comments seriously, April really will be the end of the road for large Covid stimulus spending. In an interview published today in The Spectator, Sunak said: “It is clearly not sustainable to borrow at these levels. I don’t think morally, economically or politically it would be right.”

He added: “If we [Tories] think borrowing is the answer to everything, that debt rising is fine, then there’s not much difference between us and the Labour Party. I worry about what that means for us politically down the line.”

To cheer you up, the Chancellor also made clear that he expects most if not all Covid restrictions to be lifted as soon as the first phase of vaccination – targeting the most vulnerable groups – is over. He expects the Oxford vaccine, which may be approved in the coming days, to be “a significant swing factor in the timeline.”

Incidentally, the government believes it will have completed phase one vaccinations by March/April – right on time for Sunak’s budget and the end of furlough.

Not long to go now.

Mutaz Ahmed, Politics Reporter

Under Tier 3 rules, Londoners will be advised to “walk or cycle where you can and plan ahead to avoid busy times and routes on public transport”, and told to “avoid staying overnight outside of your area.” And yet, mere days after the capital’s restrictions come into effect, people across the country will be told it can travel over a five-day window to stay with family for Christmas. How will this be managed in the major transport hubs concentrated in London, and how can Londoners be reasonably expected to cancel within days Christmas plans which they were told would be fine several weeks ago?

The likely outcome will be that thousands of Londoners, understandably fatigued by Westminster’s mixed-messaging, leave city boroughs with some of the highest infection rates in the country to visit families in towns with the lowest rates. This would have disastrous consequences for local economies in regions where home working isn’t an option for many people, in addition to potentially fatal consequences for the parents and grandparents whom young professional Londoners will be visiting.

Further complicating matters is the fact that London’s outbreak appears to be fuelled by school children. Yesterday, schools in Greenwich, south-east London, were asked to close immediately after “exponential growth” of coronavirus cases among their students, with Danny Thorpe, the local council leader, telling headteachers that the situation “is now escalating extremely quickly.”

Since schools in England, unlike Wales, have not been asked to close a week before Christmas to allow a cooling-off period for contract-tracers, and given that Christmas involves children – many children, how will the government square school infection rates with allowing three households to meet during the festive period? The only logical solution would be to disallow the Christmas break in London, but that risks turning a period of national celebration into an ugly political battle, with the country divided into those allowed to do Christmas and those barred.

It’s easy to understand why Downing Street and the devolved administrations have planned to liberate the UK for five days over Christmas. It’s been an incredibly tough year. But the consequences of such short-term thinking could be severe and protracted. London’s severe outbreak – potentially the beginning of a third wave of infections across Tier 2 cities and towns in England – changes the equation.

Today, the pair agreed a trusted trader scheme that would exempt 98 per cent of goods flowing between Great Britain and Northern Ireland from tariffs under any eventuality, including a no deal Brexit. Tariffs on the remaining two per cent of goods would likely be refunded.

This follows an agreement yesterday to abandon exit summary declarations for trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, something Northern Ireland businesses have been desperately calling for, a temporary (but widely expected to be extended) exemption for agri-food products from requiring export health certificates, and a commitment by the United Kingdom to abide by the Northern Ireland Protocol in full. 

In two days, the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol went from complete paralysis, with Britain threatening to break international treaty obligations, to being solved. It is understandable, then, that some believe this is a good omen for the wider UK-EU trade talks; Gove and Šefčovič have shown that seemingly intractable problems can quickly be solved with technical solutions. 

But it would nevertheless be a stretch to conclude this means a breakthrough between Johnson and Von der Leyen is imminent. Indeed, the developments suggest the precise opposite; Gove has broken the link between the progress of the talks and the future of Northern Ireland, making a no deal much easier to sell to both the incoming US administration and Conservative Unionists. 

With Northern Ireland’s position secured, leaving without a trade deal would no longer risk a permanent rupture with the Biden team, which has only ever intervened in the talks to stress the importance of the Good Friday Agreement. Similarly, with the prospect of violence between Northern Irish communities averted, the volume of any short-term destabilisation of the Union has been significantly reduced.  

If you were a cabinet minister charged with laying the groundwork for a no-deal Brexit, you’d probably do what Michael Gove has just done.

The Prime Minister and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet in Brussels in the coming days for a face-to-face showdown as trade talks near collapse. In a joint statement following an almost two hour long call, the two leaders said: “We asked our Chief Negotiators and their teams to prepare an overview of the remaining differences to be discussed in a physical meeting in Brussels in the coming days.”

Despite their long chat, the pair made no progress in the three areas that have held up the talks for nine months: the level playing field, governance and fisheries.

Downing Street made clear, in a briefing to journalists shortly after the call, that it is becoming increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for a deal. “Talks are in the same position now as they were on Friday,” a government source said. “We have made no tangible progress. It’s clear this must now continue politically. Whilst we do not consider this process to be closed, things are looking very tricky and there’s every chance we are not going to get there.”

The clock is ticking, with the final EU Council summit of the year due to begin this Thursday. If EU leaders do not have a draft treaty by then, they may go full speed ahead with no deal planning. By suggesting “this must now continue politically”, the UK side seems to have given up on the technocratic negotiating process and is betting that, when faced with the reality of no deal, the leaders of the 27 member states will buckle.

That is a big and seemingly desperate gamble.

These negative briefings may just be part of the government’s negotiating tactics. And the hope is that the upcoming “physical meeting” will make it easier to do a deal.

Johnson and von der Leyen will have far more capacity to make concessions than their negotiating teams had. The British side has been deeply frustrated with the extremely tight mandate EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier was given by the member states, which hamstrung the negotiations from the very beginning. And rather than the mundane, technocratic meetings that have characterised the talks, this will be an exciting clash of personalities.

Walking into the meeting, Johnson will know that von der Leyen, an alumni of the London School of Economics who fell in love with Camden’s music stores, is an Anglophile who aligns more with Angela Merkel’s conciliatory approach to Brexit than Emmanuel Macron’s de Gaulle tribute act. She won’t give away the house, but she may be open to fudges that could, in future, be open to reinterpretation by creative British lawyers.

The Europeans will know that Johnson has a desire to impress whoever is standing in front of him. Close observers of his long political career have noted that, for all his outward confidence, the Prime Minister can be easily swayed by a friendly voice, and easily unnerved by a critical one. This will have Conservative Brexiteers worried.

Johnson has only rarely been to Brussels since becoming Prime Minister – his team being hyper aware of the disrespect displayed towards Theresa May at various summits. But the optics for him this week will be favourable: flying into battle in Brussels having held out to the final moment and confronting an EU president face-to-face.

The question is, will Johnson fly back declaring no deal, or will he wave a draft treaty at the cameras on the tarmac of Heathrow Airport?

Vaccinations begin tomorrow

The UK will tomorrow become the first western nation to begin mass vaccinations, with around 800,000 doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine becoming available to elderly people who are in the process of being discharged from hospital, as well as those already attending hospital as an outpatient.

Others over the age of 80 will also be invited to hospitals to be vaccinated and care home providers will be able to book appointments for their residents and staff.

Among those eligible this week will be the Queen. When asked whether Her Majesty would be vaccinated by next Monday, Downing Street refused to comment – but regardless of the exact timing, it’s widely anticipated that the Queen will be vaccinated by the time she gives her Christmas speech, when she is expected to announce that she’s taken the jab.

Before then, we see politicians being vaccinated on live television, with polls showing that such acts would be mildly popular. Health Secretary Matt Hancock has – of course – already committed himself to doing this, although the timing remains unclear.

Manchester bomber’s brother admits full involvement

Hashem Abedi has for the first time admitted his involvement in the planning of the Manchester Arena attack, in which his brother’s suicide bombing killed 22 people and injured hundreds more. Abedi was jailed in 2017 for aiding the murder the victims, but had denied his involvement throughout the trial.

Abedi originally claimed that he did not hold extremist views and had been “shocked” by his brother’s actions, but today a public inquiry into the bombing was told that Abedi admitted to his full involvement in prison last month.

In an interview with inquiry lawyers, Abedi acknowledged that he had “played a full part and a knowing part in the planning and preparation for the arena attack,” the court heart.

Figen Murray, who lost her son Martyn in the attack, said “it would have been more bearable for us all if he told the truth” during the trial three years ago, adding: “We wanted that chapter behind us and focus our energies on the inquiry which continues to be a gruelling and long process.”

Mutaz Ahmed, Political Reporter

At today’s Downing Street press conference, Boris Johnson refused to allow himself the opportunity to claim that the speed with which the UK has approved the Pfizer vaccine is in part due to Brexit. “I’m going to exercise self-discipline by favour of diplomacy and tact,” he said. Boris and diplomacy? Pull the other one.

Some members of Johnson’s cabinet, such as Leader of the Commons Jacob Rees-Mogg, have claimed that Britain’s departure from the EU meant that it did not have to follow the European Medicines Agency’s much slower vaccine approval process, leading to today’s head start in the race to vaccinate. Conversely, pro-EU types say it has nothing to do with Brexit.

The reality is somewhere in between. Pro-EU commentators would be correct to note EU member states have the power to ignore the European Medicines Agency and follow their own approval process, as the UK has done, but, crucially, all EU member states took the decision several months ago to collectively follow the EMA’s slower process in order to maintain solidarity.

As an EU member, Britain would have faced extreme pressure to be a team player, and not to be the only country that insists on diverging. In that respect, Rees-Mogg and others are theoretically correct to claim that Britain was freed from this encumbering collectivism by Brexit.

German Health Minister Jens Spahn, acknowledged as much today. “We have member states, including Germany, which could have issued such an emergency authorisation if we’d wanted to,” he said. “But we decided against this and what we opted for was a common European approach to move forward together.”

EU solidarity seems to have cost the continent three or more crucial weeks of vaccinations. The European Medicine Agency’s response today was to claim that its process is superior because a longer assessment period would increase trust in the vaccine. Really?

Britain has a two month advantage over the European Union in terms of how quickly it will vaccinate the majority of its population, according to analysis by Goldman Sachs. The investment bank’s economists believe the UK will have vaccinated 50 per cent of its population by March next year, while the EU would reach this marker in May.

This advantage comes down to two factors. First, the swift actions of the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, and second, the UK government’s genuinely world-leading vaccine procurement scheme which has secured more doses per person than the EU and the US.

The UK government faced pressure to join the EU’s vaccine procurement scheme earlier this year, but opted to follow its own path. This UK-specific approach appears to have produced better results.

Britain’s regulator is expected to authorise the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine in the coming days, vastly increasing the supply of doses, while American regulators are expected to grant up to two emergency use authorisations next week.

The European Medicines Agency is not expected to issue any authorisations until at least December 29th.

More Brexit progress

EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier this afternoon claimed that the UK negotiating team has lowered its demands on fish catches. In a briefing to EU ambassadors, Barnier said that British negotiators were now asking EU fishing fleets to hand over 60 per cent of the value of stocks taken from British waters, down from the original demand of 80 per cent.

While the two sides remain far apart on the matter, with the EU offering to repatriate the value of just 15-18 per cent of catches, today’s development shows that Downing Street is still prepared to make serious concessions. Both sides are now expected to make further concessions, meeting around the 40-50 per cent mark.

Barnier also told ambassadors that common ground was slowly being found on the question of level playing field provisions, with British negotiators showing flexibility this week over a mutual arbiter to prevent unfair competition. He added that London was also giving increasingly substantive assurances over future subsidies (state aid).

For all the talk of fish, the level playing field and state aid are the two most controversial and economically important issues that remain outstanding. Recent progress on both matters suggests the deal is nigh – even if it takes a few more days.

Mutaz Ahmed
Political Reporter

Care home residents will go first, followed, in order, by those aged 80 and over, those aged 75 and over, those aged 70 and over, clinically extremely vulnerable individuals, those aged 65 and over, and those aged 16 to 65 with underlying health conditions. 

The JCVI justified its priority list on the basis that, “at the start of the vaccination programme, good evidence on the effects of vaccination on transmission will not be available, and vaccine availability will be more limited.” Therefore, the best option in the initial phase of the programme will be to “directly protect persons most at risk of morbidity and mortality.” 

Britain today became the first Western nation to approve a coronavirus vaccine, after the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency granting an emergency use authorisation to the Pfizer vaccine. It is the first of a series of approvals expected over the coming days and weeks. 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who will hold a press conference this evening, hailed the development as “fantastic” news that will “ultimately allow us to reclaim our lives and get the economy moving again”, while Business Secretary Alok Sharma noted that “the UK was the first country to sign a deal with Pfizer – now we will be the first to deploy their vaccine.” 

Dr June Raine, head of the medicines regulator, emphasised that “no corners have been cut” in quickly granting the authorisation. The regulator’s decision follows “the most rigorous scientific assessment of every piece of data,” she said. 

The first injections are set to take place on Monday, with the focus now shifting towards how quickly the pre-ordered vaccines can be shipped to Britain from Belgium. The extreme temperature requirements of the Pfizer vaccine have made logistics difficult, but doses for the UK are nonetheless “currently being packed” and ready for shipping “very, very quickly,” according to the Department for Health.

Britain’s leap ahead in terms of the vaccine rollout has given the country a two month majority-vaccination advantage over European neighbours, according to analysis by Goldman Sachs. The bank’s economists expect the UK to vaccinate half of its population by March, while the European Union would reach this marker by May.

The UK medicines regulator is widely expected to approve the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine within days, which would vastly increase the supply of doses. 

Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said the hastening of the process “will put an end to fears operators might stockpile kit in the hope a ban might be reversed” by a new government. Sinosceptic Conservative backbenchers had feared that a slow timetable would lead to a watering-down of the ban over time by politicians seeking to improve the trading relationship with Beijing.

Members of the China Research Group (CRG), a Parliamentary group set up earlier in the year to consistently pressure the government to take a harder line against the Chinese government, have praised the latest announcement. The Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Tom Tugendhat, who is also one of the most outspoken members of the CRG, said: “This is a welcome and important decision by Oliver Dowden. It makes completely clear where Britain stands.”

Along with banning new installations from next year, the government has vowed to have zero Huawei equipment in the 5G network by 2027, with the cost of removing current installations expected to be in the billions. Telecoms companies will also have to adhere to stringent new security requirements going forward to prevent a creeping return of Chinese technology – those refusing to adhere risk being fined of up to ten per cent of their turnover, or up to £100,000 per day.

The CRG believes its influence in Westminster has been strengthened by two factors: Boris Johnson’s interest in showing the incoming Biden administration that he can be a partner in the great power competition between the US and China, as well as the increasing belligerence of the Chinese government.

In the past few months, Beijing has exploited the world’s focus on the coronavirus pandemic to assert its hegemonic powers.

The Chinese government has threatened to sink boats from Vietnam, consistently breached Taiwanese airspace with fighter jets, and instigated confrontations with India in the Himalayas. It has also continued to break its promises to preserve a high degree of autonomy in Hong Kong – arresting civilians for peaceful protest and expelling elected members of Hong Kong authorities – while re-imposing a series of economic blows on vital Australian imports, a close security ally of the UK and the US in the 5 Eyes network. All the while, the Chinese state continues to “re-educate” Uyghur Muslims in mass internment centres, which have reasonably described as concentration camps, in Xinjiang.

Most recently, a Chinese government account posted a tweet with a fabricated picture depicting an Australian soldier murdering an Afghan child, provoking deserved outrage in Canberra. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has since doubled down and rejected Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s call for an apology.

In accelerating the removal of Huawei equipment, Downing Street is signalling its increasing determination to take a principled stand against Beijing. Geopolitics and traditional allies will be prioritised over trade and economic expedience, with Britain cementing its position as America’s partner of choice in tackling the West’s most serious geopolitical threat since the Cold War.

Iran’s top nuclear scientist, who western intelligence agencies believe has been the driving force behind the country’s nuclear weapons programmes for more than twenty years, was assassinated near Tehran today. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, nicknamed the Iranian Robert Oppenheimer, was shot dead as his car drove through the countryside town of Absard, in the Damavand region, according to Iranian state television.

Senior Iranian officials are already pointing fingers at Israel, with Foreign Minister Javad Zarif saying: “This cowardice – with serious indications of an Israeli role – shows the desperate warmongering of perpetrators.”

Israel has previously been associated with attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and espionage operations against Iranian nuclear scientists. In a 2018 presentation about Iran’s nuclear programme, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu singled out Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. “Remember that name, Fakhrizadeh,” Netanyahu told the audience. The Israeli government has not claimed responsibility for his assassination, however.

The death of Fakhrizadeh comes as western governments grow increasingly alarmed by Iran’s rapidly increasing production of enriched uranium. Earlier this month, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran had amassed twelve times the amount of enriched uranium permitted under the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal. The Iran government insisted this was for peaceful purposes, but the IAEA found their explanation to be “not credible”.

Over the last two years, Iran has reneged gradually on its commitments made in the JCPOA – the international treaty, to which the UK is one of the six signatories, designed to stop the country from attaining a nuclear bomb. The country’s pivot away from the deal was in response to America’s withdrawal from the treaty and the Trump administration’s hostility to Tehran.

Now, with the brain behind their nuclear ambitions killed, the Iranian government may be prompted to abandon further commitments and accelerate its nuclear programme, increasing the risk of conflict in the region.

Whomever was responsible, today’s assassination will undoubtedly make life easier for Iran’s key rivals in the region – Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – in the short term. It is a serious blow to Iran’s nuclear expertise and to its national confidence. In the medium to long term, however, it may yield even more Iranian aggression.

One dynamic to watch will be the response from President-elect Biden, who had hoped to reinvigorate the Iran nuclear deal. Today’s events will make one of his team’s key foreign policy commitments much more difficult to achieve.

Government faces significant Tory rebellion over Covid tiers

More than 70 Conservative MPs could vote against the coronavirus tiering system next Tuesday, with backbenchers feeling betrayed by the “irrational” restrictions announced over the last few days. MPs from all wings of the party are wondering why their constituents will face more restrictions from Dec 2 than they did before the national lockdown.

Boris Johnson this morning attempted to ease the tension, saying he expected restrictions to be downgraded in numerous areas in the next review of tiers, expected December 16th, but this failed to see off the brewing rebellion.

Senior Conservative lockdown-sceptics believe they have the numbers to defeat the government if Labour abstains on Tuesday.

Sir Keir Starmer, who is still deciding whether his party will back the tiering system, faces a tough decision. While he’s been entirely supportive of government restrictions to tackle the coronavirus in the past, the prospect of an embarrassing defeat for Downing Street over a major piece of legislation must be tantalising.

This comes as government analysis today showed that the national Covid reproduction rate has fallen below 1 for the first time since August. Given the lag in data, this suggests the virus’ prevalence in the UK has been shrinking for quite a while.

Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said: “It is worth noting that the falls in R began in the second half of September.” He added that the reproduction rate will likely “decrease further as the full impact of lockdown becomes apparent.”

Things are going in the right direction, despite the messy politics.

Have a good weekend.

Mutaz Ahmed
Political Reporter

Head Image:  A file photo dated 23 January 2019 shows Iran’s top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh during a meeting. A leading Iranian nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, has been assassinated by unidentified gunmen on the outskirts of the capital Tehran on Friday, the countrys foreign minister said. (Photo by Iranian Leader Press Office/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images).

First came the grim economic and debt forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility. The economy is expected to contract in this financial year by 11.3 per cent, the largest fall in output for more than 300 years, followed by a multi-year recovery as restrictions ease, according to the OBR. Growth is forecast to be 5.5 per cent in 2021, 6.6 per cent in 2022, then 2.3, 1.7 and 1.8 per cent respectively in the following years.

“Even with growth returning, our economic output is not expected to return to pre-crisis levels until the fourth quarter of 2022,” Sunak added. “And the economic damage is likely to be lasting. Long term scarring means that in 2025, the economy will be around 3 per cent smaller than expected in the March budget.”

The debt forecasts didn’t provide any more comfort either, with the UK expected to borrow a total of £394bn this year – amounting to around 19 per cent of GDP – making it the highest level of recorded borrowing in Britain’s peacetime history. Borrowing is then forecast to fall to £164bn in 2021, £105bn in 2022-23, then will remain at the elevated level of around £100bn –or four per cent of GDP – for the remainder of the forecast (up to 2025-26).

Underlying debt is expected to be 91.9 per cent of GDP this year and, due to elevated borrowing levels and a persistent budget deficit, it is forecast to continue to rise every year. In 2025-26, it is expected to reach 97.5 per cent of GDP.

“This situation is clearly unsustainable over the medium term,” Sunak said. “We could only act in the way we have because we came into this crisis with strong public finances, and we have a responsibility, once the economy recovers, to return to a sustainable fiscal position.”

Amid this difficult debt situation, OBR also expects unemployment to rise to a peak of 7.5 per cent – meaning around 2.6 million people – in the second quarter of 2021. It is then forecast to fall every year, reaching 4.4 per cent by the end of 2024.

Despite this dismal economic outlook, however, there will still be billions more spent on the coronavirus response in the immediate future, as Sunak made clear that he is not prepared to deflate the Covid lifeboat. Sunak announced £55bn in extra funds for Test and Trace and the NHS, subsidies for rail networks, support to local councils, and efforts to end rough sleeping as well as £3bn for the Department of Work and Pensions to help over a million unemployed people find new jobs.

There will also be an historic boost to government departments, with total departmental spending rising to £540bn next year. Day to day departmental spending will rise, in real terms, by 3.8 per cent, the fastest growth rate in 15 years. The extra money will go towards fulfilling the Prime Minister’s general election promises – 50,000 more nurses, 40 new hospitals, rebuilding 500 schools, and so on.

The “levelling-up agenda” will also be attended to. A new National Infrastructure Bank, headquartered in the North of England, will work with the private sector to finance major investment projects across the UK from spring 2021, with the expectation that it will produce more than £100bn in extra capital investment.

Additionally, local areas will be able to bid directly for support from a new £4bn Levelling Up Fund to finance local projects to be delivered within the next four years – the delivery deadline coinciding conveniently with the next general election.

On the areas where government savings can be made, Sunak highlighted public sector pay, which, he announced, will be frozen next year. Justifying the move, Sunak noted that “in the six months to September, private sector wages fell by nearly 1 per cent compared to last year,” adding: “Over the same period, public sector wages rose by nearly 4 per cent, and unlike workers in the private sector, who have lost jobs, been furloughed, seen wages cut and hours reduced, the public sector has not.”

There will be some respite, however, for NHS workers and those in the public sector who earn below the median wage of £24,000. Both groups will receive a pay rise. The planned increase to the National Living Wage will also go ahead, increasing to £8.91 an hour. “Compared to 2016, when the policy was first introduced, that’s a pay rise of over £4,000,” Sunak said.

Overseas aid is the second area targeted for savings. The commitment to spend 0.7 per cent of GDP on aiding other countries “is difficult to justify to the British people, especially when we’re seeing the highest peacetime levels of borrowing on record,” Sunak said. “I have listened with great respect to those who have argued passionately to retain this target, but at a time of unprecedented crisis, government must make tough choices.”

Next year, the government will spend 0.5 per cent of GDP on international aid, a £4bn reduction from the original 0.7 per cent commitment. Sunak emphasised that his intention is to return to 0.7 per cent “when the fiscal situation allows”, but no specific time-frame was given. Many are sceptical, given polls showing public support for reducing overseas aid, that the budget will ever return to its former scale.

Despite the reduction in the budget, the UK will remain the second highest aid donor in the G7 and Sunak emphasised the government’s increased spending on the UK’s diplomatic network.

The bigger picture is this: the Chancellor, an avowed fiscal conservative who once said that public spending should not exceed 37 per cent of GDP, now presides over an economy in which government spending has nearly doubled that threshold. Today, he has had to continue pumping billions into Covid efforts in the immediate term and billions more to meet the Prime Minister’s election spending promises, but soon his only priority will be to bring borrowing under control – and that means more painful and likely unpopular decisions.

Sunak, who rose to political stardom on the back of the generous furlough scheme, may soon become synonymous with spending cuts. That will have consequences not only for the nature of this government, but also for the Chancellor’s personal ambitions.

Announcing an upgraded system of tiered restrictions in the Commons, the Prime Minister said today: “The scientific advice, I’m afraid, is that as we come out, our tiers need to be made tougher. In particular, in Tier 1, people should work from home wherever possible. In Tier 2, alcohol may only be served in hospitality settings as part of a substantial meal. In Tier 3, indoor entertainment, hotels and other accommodation will have to close, along with all forms of hospitality except for delivery and takeaways.”

Given that SAGE, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies,  has concluded the second tier is “the minimum intervention required to maintain any degree of control on the transmission”, most of England’s population is expected to be placed under the top two tiers for the foreseeable future. The one cause for relief in all this is that SAGE’s recommendation of an extra, fourth tier with full lockdown measures, appears to have been rejected.

To avoid another national lockdown, the government will conduct a major testing surge in the coming weeks. All Tier 3 areas are expected to have access to mass community testing, with local councils able to draw on the support of the armed forces. In future, the hope is to roll this out to areas in lower tiers, with the prospect of a “freedom pass” system for those who test negative, allowing them to enjoy relaxed restrictions.

An extra £7 billion is being invested in NHS Test and Trace to pay for it, bringing total spending to an extraordinary figure – more than £22 billion.

It appears that Downing Street is betting everything on a vaccine being rapidly rolled out in the coming months. Johnson told the Commons today that he hoped recent scientific advances will “reduce the need for the restrictions we’ve endured in 2020 and make the whole concept of a Covid lockdown redundant.” Until then, he believes, the country will have to hunker down and prevent spreading the virus as much as possible.

The Chancellor, who over the autumn has become increasingly anxious about the state of the public finances, has been convinced to hold off on attempting to control the UK’s spiralling debt in his Spending Review this Wednesday. There will be no tax rises or spending cuts; instead, there will be tens of billions more in pandemic spending, on top of the continuation of furlough and self-employment support, which was announced last month.

There is some logical sense in putting life on pause until a vaccine is distributed, especially after today’s news that the Oxford/AstraZeneca candidate, of which the UK has already ordered 100 million doses, could be 90 per cent effective with the right regimen of doses and could receive regulatory approval within days.

But on a practical level, several factors in the vaccination process could lead to long delays, turning this risky strategy into an expensive nightmare.

It is not entirely guaranteed that regulatory approval will be granted before the new year, for instance, and given the government’s recent record of delivering large projects, the vaccine rollout may suffer from severe logistical problems and stall for several months. Under such circumstances, not only will Britons grow anxious and fatigued, but the government’s spending situation may become untenable. Even with interest rates at historic lows, there is a danger that the debt may get out of control.

If a vaccine were to be delayed for several months, Sunak would have no option but to extend the furlough scheme again, perhaps into autumn 2021, and continue to give the NHS billions in extra support. It is not clear whether the markets would be as generous as they were at the start of the crisis, given that this would likely be the consequence of government misjudgement rather than an unavoidable crisis. This would trigger dangerous volatility.

For Johnson, there is also the question of keeping his parliamentary party on side. Tory backbenchers are already growing restless: Steve Baker MP, an influential parliamentary operator, this morning requested that the government publish a cost-benefit analysis of its new tiered strategy; former minister Nus Ghani writes in the Telegraph today that she “won’t be able to support any restrictions – tiered or otherwise”; and former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith writes in the Daily Mail that the tiers are a “bitter blow for business.”

It is believed that around 70 Conservative backbenchers are prepared to vote against the new restrictions this week. It won’t be enough to bring down the strategy now, but the number of rebels would likely expand rapidly if Whitehall bungles the vaccine rollout.

To be clear, this is the final stretch of the battle against the raging coronavirus epidemic in this country. There will be multiple approved vaccines at some point next year, and Britain has ordered more than does enough to be distributed throughout the population. It will take time, but people will eventually return to work, social lives will resume, and the economy will go gangbusters in bouncing back from a yearlong pause.

The risk for Johnson and Sunak is in the intervening period. In opting to double down with restrictions until the vaccines are administered, they have vastly increased the costs of potential delays. Time will tell whether their gamble will pay off.

Two separate regimens were tested. When delivered in two full doses, the vaccine was 62 per cent effective, but when delivered at a half dose and then a full dose, it was 90 per cent effective. Professor Andrew Pollard, Director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, said this “exciting” second regimen means “more people could be vaccinated with the planned vaccine supply.”

Unlike the Pfizer vaccine, Oxford’s can be stored in normal temperatures, remaining stable in an ordinary home freezer. This makes it easier to distribute and administer, as transport vehicles and vaccination hubs will not require extra specialist equipment. There’s also more of it available, with some 3 billion doses due to be produced in 2021, more than the estimated supply of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines combined.

And crucially, thanks to AstraZeneca’s non-profit pledge, it is also the cheapest of the major candidates, standing at around $3 per dose. By comparison, the Moderna vaccine will cost between $32 and $37 per dose, and Pfizer’s around $20. AstraZeneca has said it will sell doses at this low price to low- and middle- income countries in perpetuity.

The combination of these factors means the Oxford vaccine is already the most pre-ordered candidate, taking up the vast majority of orders outside Europe and the US. Poorer countries will be relying on it, and today’s data suggest that it will play a large – probably the largest – role in defeating the pandemic.

Bravo, British science.

You can read the full report from the study here – https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/news/oxford-university-breakthrough-on-global-covid-19-vaccine

In particular, the government’s “high-priority” procurement lane for personal protective equipment, where bids for contracts were ten times more likely to be successful, led to contracts being handed to suppliers with political connections without the standard transparency procedures being used. Overseen by the Department for Health, this scheme was an unusual departure from standard practice.

While the high-priority lane allowed the government to speedily grant contracts to PPE suppliers at a time of extraordinary need, it also eschewed the usual procurement procedures in the process. For instance, “the sources of referrals to the high-priority lane were not always recorded on the team’s case management system,” according to the NAO.

Almost 500 suppliers with links to politicians or senior officials were referred to the high-priority lane, but it was only in 250 instances that the referee’s name was recorded in the government’s case management system. Around 144 referrals originated in the private offices of ministers.

In one instance, an adviser to the government’s Board of Trade made a bid for a contract worth £253 million on behalf of Ayanda Capital, an investment firm, which was processed in the high-priority lane. While the contract was granted, the clear conflict of interest was not declared by the Department for Health. The due diligence checks conducted by the Department did not even include the name of the adviser.

The NAO also found multiple instances where companies were awarded contracts retrospectively, having first been asked to conduct work informally. This increased risks, including underperformance, and further reduced transparency.

An example given is a £550,000 contract which was retroactively granted to Public First for focus groups and communications. While the two directors of the firm have previously worked for Michael Gove in the Cabinet Office, the NAO found “no documentation on the consideration of conflicts of interest, no recorded process for choosing the supplier, and no specific justification for using emergency procurement.”

As the NAO itself notes, government officials were acting under unprecedented pressure; quickly procuring safety equipment was a matter of life and death for health workers. It is understandable that in such conditions, some shortcuts will be made. However, the sheer scale of political connections to companies offered hundreds of millions in government funds raises serious questions.

The failure to register hundreds of potential conflicts of interests risks severely undermining public trust. Any hint of systemic cronyism, taking advantage of a national emergency which has killed tens of thousands and left millions more in economic hardship, will not be tolerated by the electorate.

These may be rather boring systems – and the NAO report is daunting – but dull processes have a habit of sparking national scandals.

The highest level of lockdown restrictions will be introduced in eleven Scottish council areas, including Glasgow, on Friday, with non-essential shops, restaurants, pubs and gyms forced to close their doors. The restrictions, which will put around half of Scotland’s population in an effective lockdown, are due to remain in place until at least December 11.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon today told the Scottish parliament: “A number of local authorities across central Scotland have case numbers and test positivity that are significantly above the national average. And while the situation in many of them has stabilised, it has done so at a stubbornly high level.”

Scottish retailers responded negatively, arguing the restrictions are coming at the “worst possible time” for small businesses. “There is little evidence shuttering shops does much to suppress the spread of Covid, but it’s undeniable closing high street stores in November and into December during the crucial Christmas trading period is a hammer blow to hard-pressed retailers,” said David Lonsdale, Director of the Scottish Retail Consortium.

Last month, Sturgeon declined to join Boris Johnson’s month-long lockdown, claiming that the restrictions her government imposed on the Scottish central belt in late September were “starting to slow” the virus’ reproduction rate.

Scotland today recorded 1,248 cases of coronavirus, up from 832 a week ago. There are now 1,249 people with coronavirus in Scottish hospitals, up from 1,239 a week ago.

Corbyn back in Labour after 19 day suspension

Labour has reinstated Jeremy Corbyn’s membership. The former party leader was suspended last month over his response to the Equality and Human Rights Commission’s report into antisemitism in the party under his leadership, in which he claimed that the issue of had been “overstated.”

Corbyn today issued a clarification stating that “concerns about antisemitism are neither ‘exaggerated’ nor ‘overstated’”, which was enough for the party to drop his suspension, but stopped well short of an official apology.

In a furious statement, the Jewish Labour Movement said: “It is extraordinary that just weeks after the EHRC found that the Labour Party had discriminated against Jewish members through political manipulation of the disciplinary process, it appears that the party expedited this case for a hearing by a factionally aligned political committee.

“After his failure of leadership to tackle antisemitism, so clearly set out in the EHRC’s report, any reasonable and fair-minded observer would see Jeremy Corbyn’s statement today as insincere and wholly inadequate.”

Boris’ devolution blunder

Six months before crucial Holyrood elections, Scottish Conservative leader Douglass Ross has again been forced to denounce Downing Street after Boris Johnson yesterday described devolution as being “a disaster” and “Tony Blair’s worst mistake”.

The comments, made in a meeting with northern Conservative MPs, have scuppered Johnson’s plans to reset his premiership and triggered a wave of anger amongst both Unionists and Nationalists north of the border.

While Ross was quick to contradict the Prime Minister, saying “devolution has not been a disaster”, SNP supporters have latched onto the quote, claiming it is an example of Johnson’s contempt for Scotland.

Hot off the block, Sturgeon was quick to tweet: “Worth bookmarking these PM comments for the next time Tories say they’re not a threat to the powers of the Scottish Parliament – or, even more incredibly, that they support devolving more powers. The only way to protect and strengthen the Scottish Parliament is with independence.”

Downing Street is in full back-peddle mode. “Devolution is great – but not when it’s used by separatists and nationalists to break up the UK,” said a Number 10 spokesperson. It is worth noting that 74 per cent of Scots supported devolution in a 1997 referendum.

‘Unacceptable conduct’ by Grenfell Tower cladding company 

A former employee of the company which made the combustible insulation for Grenfell Tower told the Grenfell Inquiry that the company  had committed a “fraud on the market” and misled people over its fire safety tests.

Jonathan Roper, a former assistant product manager at Celotex – a subsidiary of the French construction materials company Saint-Gobain – told the inquiry that the firm had “over-engineered” a cladding fire safety test to achieve a pass, and that he was asked to produce slides for the sales team that would not mention an earlier cladding test which had failed.

The slides were “downright misleading” Roper said. “I felt incredibly uncomfortable with it. I recall going home that evening, I was living with my parents at the time, and mentioning it to them. I felt incredibly uncomfortable with what I was being asked to do.”

Celotex has acknowledged that “unacceptable conduct” by some employees was involved in the circumstances around the testing, certification and marketing of the materials. It claims to have “taken concerted steps to ensure that no such issues reoccur.”

The inquiry will continue into the new year.

Trump asked for options to bomb Iran

Donald Trump asked senior advisers last Thursday about options for bombing Iran’s main nuclear site, according to the New York Times. The outgoing president, who has yet to concede the election he lost, was dissuaded from conducting a military strike by his most senior advisers who warned that it could easily escalate into a broader conflict in the last weeks of his presidency.

While aides left that particular meeting believing a military strike was off the table, Trump might still be looking at ways to strike Iranian assets.

The situation is very much ongoing. On Wednesday, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran’s uranium stockpile is now twelve times larger than permitted under the Iran Nuclear deal, which Trump withdrew from in 2018.

Mutaz Ahmed
Political Reporter

The light at the end of the tunnel just got a little brighter, with a second vaccine candidate proving effective in mass-testing. American pharmaceutical giant Moderna says its vaccine will protect 94.5 per cent of people, exceeding Pfizer’s results last week which showed 90 per cent effectiveness. The former’s stock price shot up by more than seven points today, while the latter’s dropped by four points.

Moderna’s vaccine would also be much easier to distribute. Unlike Pfizer’s, it doesn’t need to be stored in extreme temperatures to be effective. The temperature of a standard home or medical refrigerator – 2 degrees to 8 degrees Celsius – would keep it stable for around a month, allowing local GPs and pharmacies to store and administer the drug without requiring high-grade cooling equipment.

“The overall effectiveness has been remarkable, it’s a great day,” said Tal Zaks, Moderna’s chief medical officer, while Dr Stephen Hoge, the company’s president, said he “grinned ear to ear for a minute” when the results came in. “I don’t think any of us really hoped that the vaccine would be 94 per cent effective at preventing Covid-19 disease, that was really a stunning realisation,” he added.

As Moderna applies for an emergency use authorisation, all thoughts turn to the one major outstanding candidate, AstraZeneca-Oxford, which is due to analyse and release its results soon. The outcomes of other trials suggest the Oxford team should have positive news – and, like Moderna’s, its vaccine can be stored in ordinary temperatures.

AstraZeneca-Oxford is the cheapest of the three candidates and currently leads the way in pre-orders from foreign governments. If its results are as good as expected, it will likely become the world’s most popular Covid-19 vaccine.

Boris relaunch scuppered

It was supposed to be the week that Boris Johnson relaunched his government, following the Cummings-Cain psychodrama of the last few days, but the Prime Minister’s plans were disturbed by the news that he had come into contact with an MP who had tested positive for coronavirus, meaning he’d have to self-isolate for fourteen days.

“The good news is that the NHS test and trace continues to improve. The bad news is that I’ve been pinged,” Johnson texted MPs last night. “It doesn’t matter that I feel fine – better than ever – or that my body is bursting with antibodies from the last time I had it. The rules are the rules and they are there to stop the spread of the disease.”

He added, of the potential impact on the functioning of government: “Yes we have the spending review and the integrated security review and the small matter of EU talks. But we also have zoom and other miracles.”

Johnson will go ahead with his new Green announcements – an effort to move away from Brexit and other “culture war” issues and to prepare the ground for this year’s UN Climate Change Conference, which Britain is hosting. They are expected to include a ban on the sale of new diesel and petrol cars from 2030, as well as pledges on increased use of offshore wind and technologies to capture and store carbon dioxide.

To substitute the loss of fuel duty revenues, Chancellor Rishi Sunak is said to be “very interested” in the idea of a national road pricing scheme, using tracking devices already built into electric vehicles to charge people on the basis of how long they drive. As The Hound writes today: Old Boris, the motoring columnist, would most likely have been appalled by such a policy.

Jupiter’s phone rant

President Emmanuel Macron has never granted the New York Times’ Paris bureau an interview, but last Thursday he did call Ben Smith, the paper’s media columnist, to bash the “Anglo-American” media’s coverage of recent terrorist attacks in France.

“When I see… several newspapers which I believe are from countries that share our values… legitimising this violence, and saying that the heart of the problem is that France is racist and Islamaphobic, then I say the founding principles have been lost,” Macron said.

Smith was horrified: “Legitimising violence – that’s as serious a charge as you can make against the media, and the sort of thing we’ve been more used to hearing, and shrugging off, from the American president … I asked him whether his vocal complaints about the American Media weren’t themselves a little Trumpian – advancing his own agenda through high-profile attacks on the press.”

Macron is of course right to be angry at the American media’s attitude to European affairs – as we in Britain know all too well, the New York Times’ coverage of the continent can be haughty and sometimes wrong. At the same time, Smith rightly identifies Macron’s Trumpian characteristics; he is prone to narcissism and sees critical analysis of French secularism as an insult in itself.

With Trump out of the way and nothing to distract them from their own shortcomings, let us enjoy the sight of these two “defenders of the liberal international order” turning on each other.

Mutaz Ahmed
Political Reporter

Britain fell silent today, as the world marked Armistice Day. Despite coronavirus restrictions, scaled back commemorations were held across the country, with services in Edinburgh’s Memorial Gardens, Belfast city centre and York Minster. In Westminster, a service attended by Prince Charles, the Duchess of Cornwall and Prime Minister Boris Johnson marked the 100th anniversary of the burial of the Unknown Warrior.

In the United States, President Trump emerged from the White House for the first time since his election defeat to visit the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier at Arlington National Cemetery. After braving the heavy rainfall to lay a wreath at the site, he made no public comment.

In Paris, Emmanuel Macron rekindled the flame at the foot of the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier under the grand Arc de Triomphe. French officials will later move the remains of wartime writer Maurice Genevoix into the nation’s Pantheon of national heroes.

Reasons to be sad, and hopeful

The country has passed an unhappy milestone, with more 50,000 coronavirus-related deaths recorded on the national death toll. “Every death is a tragedy, we mourn everybody who’s gone, and our feelings are with their families and friends as well,” the Prime Minister said, noting the moment.

Yesterday alone, 595 coronavirus-related deaths were recorded, showing how the lag between infections and deaths will likely continue to produce a bleak image in the weeks to come.

Sir Keir Starmer commented that this “grim milestone” is a consequence of government failures. He argued that “the government was slow at phase one and they haven’t learned the lesson going into phase two,” adding: “We’re the first in Europe to hit [50,000 deaths].”

Starmer is right that this is nominally the case, although Belgium and Spain remain the most severely affected countries on a per-capita basis.

That is the bad news. The good news is that infection rates across the country are clearly stabilising. In the North West, the hardest-hit region in recent weeks, cases are declining quite rapidly, down to 69 daily cases per 100,000 from a peak of 120 cases per 100,000. The UK as a whole is down to 36,293 daily cases, a 16.5 per cent reduction from the second wave daily peak in late October.

Estimates from the ZOE Covid Symptom Study suggest that the reproduction rate is 0.8 in the North West and 0.9 across England (any number under 1 means prevalence of the virus is decreasing). If these trends continue, the UK will have suppressed the second wave of infections at a much faster rate than other major European countries, including France.

All of this bodes well for Christmas. Regional restrictions will probably still be in place, but with infections falling considerably in most regions,  it seems likely that far fewer people will be in Tier 3 than previously thought when the holiday season arrives.

Who gets jabbed?  

“I think the mum test is very important here,” Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van-Tam told a press conference this morning. “My mum is 78 and will be 79 shortly, and I’ve already said to her: make sure when you’re called, you’re ready. Be ready to take this up, this is really important for you because of your age. Be ready to be called.”

Following Pfizer’s preliminary vaccine trial results, the government is gearing up for the next stage of its epidemic response: distributing a vaccine. Given Whitehall’s failure to organise an effective test, track and trace programme, ministers are determined to prove their competence this time around.

The first question is of logistics. The nature of Pfizer’s MRNA vaccine requires it to be stored in minus-78 degree temperature at all times, which would prove to be an expensive, logistical nightmare for any government. Downing Street is therefore hoping that the Oxford vaccine candidate, which can be stored at temperatures of between 2.0-8.0 degrees Celcius, is granted regulatory approval before or at around the same time as Pfizer’s.

Second, while the British government has pre-ordered enough vaccines for five doses per person, there is simply not the infrastructure to vaccinate everyone within a year. It will have to prioritise certain groups, which could prove to be very contentious. The elderly, especially those in care homes, will be the first priority – but who’s next in line? Ethnic minorities with hypertension? Diabetics? What about diabetics under 50?

As of today, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation is still debating which groups should be included in the second phase of the vaccine rollout, after those in care homes and aged over 80 are dealt with. “We have not decided who else should be vaccinated beyond phase one,” said Professor Wei Shen Lim, chairman of the committee. “That’s not to say that they shouldn’t be vaccinated.”

The JCVI’s priority list is subject to constant change. Expect debate within the committee, and indeed across society, to heat up as the prospect of vaccination edges closer to reality.

Mutaz Ahmed
Political Reporter

It is worth evaluating the row over the Internal Market Bill from a distance. Whatever government ministers may claim about the need to protect the integrity of the United Kingdom’s single market, the amendments to the bill were clearly a negotiating gambit. Downing Street had known all along that the Northern Ireland Protocol in the Withdrawal Agreement would grant the EU Commission some oversight of subsidies in Northern Ireland – but, for some reason, that wasn’t a concern before September.

The reality was that, as the negotiating deadline approached, Number 10 looked to increase its leverage in the negotiations over state aid regulations. Dominic Cummings believed it would be difficult to realise his dream of forging a “British Samsung” without breaching the level playing field regulations demanded by the EU. His ingenious plan therefore entailed threatening to override parts of the Withdrawal Agreement, then waiting for a panicked European Union, desperate to avoid a regulatory border on the island of Ireland, to make concessions on subsidies for the rest of the UK.

As with many of Cummings’ grand designs, this failed spectacularly. EU officials came out fighting, insisting that the Bill’s amendments not only violated the Withdrawal Agreement (an international treaty) but also undercut the Good Friday Agreement. Crucially, in the United States, the Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden agreed. “We can’t allow the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland to become a casualty of Brexit,” the now President-elect tweeted.

Today, in his first call with Boris Johnson, Biden spoke “about the importance of implementing Brexit in such a way that upholds the Good Friday Agreement.”

Yet, despite risking a potential diplomatic crisis, Downing Street doesn’t appear to have gained much leverage in discussions over state aid. The EU maintains that Britain will have to sign up to a regime that goes further than that in the EU-Canada trade deal, given the UK economy’s size and proximity to the European single market. Any deal will also likely produce a powerful UK subsidies regulator powerful enough to throw out Cummings’ more imaginative ideas.

Still, Boris Johnson is pushing ahead with the amended Bill and continuing to damage the government in the process. Yesterday, the government suffered an historic 433-165 vote defeat in the House of Lords, with former Conservative Party leader Lord Howard and former Conservative Chancellor Lord Lamont – both known for their Euroscepticism – being among the 44 Conservative dissenters. Such a margin suggests that the Lords are ready for a game of ping-pong and will reject the bill again if its controversial amendments are restored by the government.

There will be more trouble for Number 10 when the bill returns to the Commons, with some Tory MPs questioning the wisdom of reheating a strategy which has proven somewhat counterproductive. Dozens of backbenchers were anxious about the legislation when it first came to a vote two months ago, but nonetheless held their nose and supported the government in the hope that it would trigger a breakthrough in negotiations. That hasn’t happened yet.

Over the coming days, talks in London may yet produce a free trade agreement, but it would be the result of the continent’s economic interests rather than Downing Street’s threats to abrogate international treaties.

NHS ready to roll out vaccine

Health Secretary Matt Hancock was today cautiously optimistic about the prospect of a vaccine by the end of the year, and set out plans to distribute any successful candidate through the National Health Service. “We will be ready to begin a large scale vaccination programme. First to priority groups, as recommended by the independent Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, before rolling it out more widely,” Hancock told the Commons.

“Our plans for deployment of a Covid vaccine are built on tried and tested plans for a flu vaccine, which we of course deploy every autumn,” Hancock said. “We do not yet know whether or when a vaccine is approved, but I have tasked the NHS with being ready from any date from 1 December.”

GPs will be given £150m of immediate support, after the government last night wrote to surgeries setting out guidelines for mass vaccination. Care homes, sports halls and small clinics will also take part, with some of them staying open for seven days a week to get the job done.

“The logistics are complex, the uncertainties are real, and the scale of the job is vast. But I know that the NHS, brilliantly assisted by the armed services will be up to the task,” Hancock added.

Mutaz Ahmed
Political Reporter