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If you haven’t read Ed Conway’s book Material World from a few years back, can I suggest that in the context of what just happened to oil prices amid the war in the Middle East you do so, immediately? The premise is simple, even if the text is rich in detail. Ed (who is economics editor for SkyNews) is fascinated by the way in which complacent Western societies take so much for granted and take so little interest in how the stuff of our daily lives works and is produced.

It wasn’t always this way. Quite recently, relatively speaking, when the heavy manufacturing side of our economies was more visible, most people had some sense of the means of production. This was an era of coal, steel, shipping, armaments production, heavy bits of metal, and dirty, hard work. The education system in Britain and elsewhere in Europe placed a great emphasis on the physical sciences, and even if this wasn’t part of your schooling you knew someone - perhaps your entire family - who owed their living in some way to manufacturing.

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At this year’s LDC Investment Forum earlier this week, I was joined on stage by Lord Robertson for a conversation about UK defence, the threats we and our allies face, and the need for his Strategic Defence Review to be implemented much more quickly.

I’ve known him a long time now - from the days in the early 1990s when as a young reporter on the Sunday Times in Scotland I used to have to phone him up and ask him presumably annoying questions about meetings of the Scottish Labour Party Executive. With a sigh he would explain politely that the proceedings were private and he was trying to watch the rugby on the television.

Since then he has had a remarkable career, in the UK cabinet and at NATO seeing Russia’s return to authoritarianism up close. He is a vital, wise voice making the case for much stronger defences in the face of the growing threats confronting the West.

Here is the transcript of our conversation:

Lord Robertson, we are talking about getting to 5 per cent but I think we have to start by talking about Ukraine. It’s been a very strange few days. What kind of security guarantees do you think Ukraine really needs if this 19-point plan is going to work?

Only the United States has got the capability, both the air cover and the equipment, that would make any coalition of the willing credible in the eyes of the Ukrainians and in the eyes of their potential adversaries. So that’s going to be one of the big stumbling blocks. That’s going to be a problem for the negotiators to take on board and I think that’s one of the areas that is not in the 19-point plan but is being left for Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin and Zelensky to deal with.

Do you think such a deal is feasible?

It’s going to have to be feasible. It’s going to be necessary because the Ukrainians will need to have some guarantee that whatever deal is done is not going to be as paper-thin as the Budapest Memorandum was. So it’s going to have to be robust and it will have to involve troops on the ground for it to be in any way credible to the Ukrainians of the future.

How do you think these negotiations, particularly regarding the initial exclusion of European allies and coalition of the willing, will affect the cohesion of collective European security?

We are in uncharted territory. We are in a situation where a real estate expert is doing the negotiation on behalf of the US directly with the Kremlin, and then the diplomats pick up the pieces later on. So it’s impossible to tell what the outcome is going to be. In a normal course of events, you would go into the details, you would not have a guy with real estate experience going in and getting a piece of paper, that it transpires was translated from Russian, and bringing that back as an authoritative version that has to be adopted. So that is where we are in an area not only of uncharted territory but in the area of unreality.

There’s a meeting in Abu Dhabi in the next couple of days, following on from the Geneva talks. Marco Rubio is now engaged and Rubio has got a track record of being suspicious of Russia. He’s not only national security advisor, he is the secretary of state, so he carries the clout of the state department. But nobody can tell what on earth is going on. You need a psychiatrist to be able to get inside the minds of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, and even a psychiatrist would find it difficult at the moment. So, we will know when we know, we will see when we see.

In the meantime, the Russian economy is in trouble and the Russians are not making any real progress on the battlefield, advancing one metre at a time. The younger Russian generation are being eliminated in a country where the ethnic population is anyway declining…

What does this mean for the threat facing the rest of Europe if you end up with a frozen Europe? That presumably frees up Putin’s resources in terms of the High North, the Baltic states and Poland? He then has more to send to those border areas and more free time and capacity on his hands.

We need to be very very worried about how this ends up, because we are under threat as well. It’s quite clear from the Russian press and the Kremlin-controlled media that we, the United Kingdom, are being seen as a proxy for America. It’s inconvenient to attack America on a broad scale because of the relationship between Trump and Putin so we, the United Kingdom, are in the crosshairs. Relentlessy, the Kremlin media is attacking “the Anglos”, “the UK”, “the English”. So we need to be worried as a country as a whole that if Russia got the space to reconstitute its armed forces - and it’s already doing so but, if it could on a grander scale - then clearly the rest of Europe is in danger. If I lived in Moldova or Armenia or Azerbaijan, I would be very very worried about the possibility of a deal being done that left Russia with its forces intact and with at least some prize to be gained from Ukraine.

You recently talked about the UK being underinsured and underprepared in terms of modern threat. What do you think it is that the public doesn’t understand about this?

I don’t think that we see the threat in the way that we should. If the lights go out, what do we do? 98 per cent of all the data we use in this country comes in undersea cables, 77 per cent of our gas supplies to the UK comes in one pipeline from Norway, so the vulnerability of the country is really acute. But people are not in their day-to-day lives aware of it. But if the lights go out and the hospitals close and the data centres melt because the air conditioning has gone off, then the political classes will be told, ‘why have you not done something about this?’

A couple of months ago, Spain and Portugal came to a standstill, an outage. Nobody knows why, they claim it was to do with an excess of renewable power. But you got the experience there very very visibly, for 48 hours, of a country at a standstill - cash machines that don’t work, traffic lights that don’t work, two modern European countries paralysed. Imagine if that was to happen here.

Russian spy ships are mapping these undersea cables all the time, putting sensors on the seabed in order to detect where the main data lines are going to be. You’ve got these shadow tankers dragging anchors in the Baltic, and they can do so in the Atlantic as well. So people need to be made aware of how unprepared and uninsured we actually are. A CFO would be sacked if he allowed insurance policies to lapse at any of these buildings here today (in the City of London) and a country is no different. We need an insurance policy. There needs to be an insurance policy through robust defence - war-fighting capability that deters any enemy from making the kind of attacks we are talking about.

This question of war-fighting capability seems to be absolutely critical. In recent decades, we have focussed quite a lot on operational questions, which are important, but actually being able to fight wars and deter, that’s where we’ve got to get to. To that end, you oversaw and led the recent SDR, what do you think the next steps on that need to be? And, based on what you’ve said, we need to go faster surely?

It needs to be implemented, the Strategic Defence Review fundamentally transforms the way in which we do defence, from top to bottom, right through the whole system.

My nephew sent a text message when I got the job saying ‘more tanks, more ships, more planes, job done.’ And there are some people who think that, there’s some people in the defence industry who think that. But it’s not. We need to transform the whole way in which we do defence: the heavy metal is part of it but it’s also to do with logistics, it’s to do with modern training, with innovation, with reforming the way in which we do procurement, which is mired in bureaucracy and contrary to risk-taking. So all of that has to be done, and it needs to be implemented quickly.

The defence secretary sent me a message last night saying that we’re underway and that of the 62 recommendations, all of which have got timelines built into them, some of them are being delivered in advance of what the timeline suggests. But we need to move much quicker than that.

The minister has just said that we are going to reach 2.5 per cent in 2027 - that’s a year after next. But the Prime Minister is talking about a coalition of the willing, and putting troops on the ground into a World War Three war zone now, and I think that’s where our lack of preparation comes up against the ambitions of European leaders at the present moment. So the money that the PM has promised - an extra 13.4 billion pounds in 2027, and every year thereafter - the government is committed to the 3 per cent at the start of next parliament and 3.5 per cent by 2035, according to the Hague summit, but we’ve got to deal with what’s happening at the present moment.

When I went to NATO at the beginning, President Clinton said to me, ‘sort the relationship with Russia out’, that was one of his imperatives at the time, and the relationship was very badly fractured, with Boris Yeltsin believing that Kosovo had been a betrayal. So what I did was I sort of sat myself in a seat in the Kremlin, thinking how do they look at us, what does NATO look like if you’re sat in the Kremlin. So when Putin took over the following year, at least I was partly in his mind about how to deal with him. And we need to do that, we need to stop looking at the world through our own eyes and think about it in the eyes of these three guys who stood at Tiananmen Square last month - the president of Russia, the president of China, the president of North Korea. They weren’t spectators at that parade, they are part and parcel of a group of people who want to end the domination of the West, to stop the power of the EU, the power of NATO and they are banded together. They don’t like each other or trust each other but they have one common objective, and that’s what they are mobilising on at the present moment. Every single day they are doing that.

The world in 2010 was completely different from the world you’ve just described. This was a world in which we hoped Russia would be our economic partner and we were entering a golden era with China. Surely we need to think much bigger and go much faster?

We do and I believe that we do, and I think the defence secretary believes that we do. But is that the mind of the Treasury yet? The Treasury is being lobbied by the welfare lobby, by security, by education, all relentlessly putting pressure on it. But where is the outside lobby that says ‘we need to be safe, we’ve got to keep the country safer than it is at the present moment’? We are under-resourced, under-insured, under attack and therefore we are not safe as a nation.

The government signed up to the SDR, it’s the view of His Majesty’s Government and the review says this: ‘the UK and its allies are once again directly threatened by other states with advanced military forces. The UK is already under daily attack with aggressive acts from espionage, cyber attack and information manipulation causing harm to society and the economy. State conflict has returned to Europe’. So, these are words of the government of the day and I think the Treasury are going to have to pay attention to that. If the lights go out and the hospitals shut, then what happens?

When 9/11 came and I was at NATO, and you ride out the implication of Article 5, the German government put a levy on every insurance policy in Germany as a special security supplement at that time. I tried to get all the countries to do that but they failed to do it. But I think that is what, in my view, they should be doing. The country needs to know it’s not safe and that it can only be safe if the insurance policy is paid, and that means extra money for defence. And it will have to be before 2027 when that extra 13.4 billion comes in.

What is your perspective on the role of private capital, private investors and their expertise in this great endeavour?

The involvement of private money, the involvement of the private sector, is going to be absolutely crucial. It is quite clear that, in the short term, that the government is not going to be able to confront the welfare bill in the way that it should in order to release money for the defence of the country. But the private sector has the money and it can spend the money up front.

I was at a meeting last week where somebody said, ‘in terms of Europe, it’s either 5 per cent with the Americans or 7 per cent without the Americans’. That’s a dawning realisation. So the private sector has to be involved. There’s no way that the state can do all of this, especially in infrastructure terms, in terms of paying up front to get the equipment of the future. It’s one of the ways in which we can leverage the money, the skills, the ability of the square mile in order to make sure that the country and the square mile is safer than it is just now.

QUESTIONS

(Juliet Samuel of The Times)

Europe collectively spends more on defence than Russia does so why are we getting so little for our money and should we resolve that faster before we spend more?

We do spend much more than Russia, and it’s a colossal amount of money, but of course it’s used for sovereign projects, it’s used domestically, and a lot of it is not terribly productive in terms of war readiness. There are some countries that spend about 20 per cent on pensions which doesn’t exactly translate into capabilities, so the last secretary general of NATO and this current one are actually making war readiness a priority. But the Europeans are going to have to face up to the fact that the taxpayer in Europe deserves to get Euros for the money they spend and they’re not getting it at the moment.

(Iain Martin) This question of ‘Europe’, let’s try and define that. There’s the European pillar of NATO, there’s what the European Union is trying to do. There clearly is this urge for European countries to do more together to meet the threat. But how do you see it institutionally?

Institutionally, the European Union has changed. They now have a commission for defence. That was unheard of even in my day. They’ve changed the financial structures to allow more money to be spent on defence without breaking the stability pact. So Europe is waking up and is systematically changing a lot of its programmes. But the EU, like NATO, is made up of sovereign countries and they have relations - unlike the Warsaw Pact where one man in the Kremlin said ‘move’ and everyone said ‘how high do we jump?’ - you’ve got a conglomeration of countries, so NATO has got Viktor Orban in Hungary, Fico in Slovakia, they’ve got a new Prime Minister in the Czech Republic, who are not all on the same page as those who see Russia as a major threat. It’s a fact of life that the countries closest to the threat are more aware, the Poles are spending over 4 percent on defence at the moment but the Spanish and the Portuguese, certainly the Spanish, wanted to opt out of the agreement that was done at the Hague. But, generally speaking, they act together and I think we should recognise that its towering strength is that it’s made up of democracies unlike with our adversaries, but it makes it more difficult to come to common decisions. Institutionally though, the European Union has picked up thanks to the challenge of Ukraine and is moving faster than ever before.

(Iain Martin)

But is it a structure that’s built for speed? And the reason I mention that is I’m thinking increasingly about the question of denial and denying the Russians territory. The lesson of the last 11 years, since Crimea, that the Kremlin will draw psychologically is that ‘if you take it, no-one is going to come and take it off you; not the Ukrainians, and no other power. So if you can claim territory fast in a chaotic way, presumably the Russians then bank on us taking a while to organise a response to try and push them back. Or then you move into the peace conference phase of things and then the territory is lost.

I think that’s the dilemma we are all facing. There is an assumption that Ukraine is going to have to give up territory, sovereign territory. Despite the pledge guaranteed by the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, by the UK, by the US but also by Russia, China. And I think that presages a very difficult, worrying world for our grandchildren in the future, if it can be legitimised through whatever is being done at the present moment, then the principle of the use of force to change borders will be enshrined in some new peace treaty and that has profound implications across the world. I don’t understand why countries in the global south don’t wake up to that threat to them. The whole of Africa is based on colonial boundaries but they all decided collectively to keep them because otherwise you’re going to have tribal rivals and all sorts of territorial claims, so there was an element of stability in Africa for example that allowed it to survive all the proxy wars that were going on there at the time. The moment the principle is established, especially by the big powers in the world, that you can change borders with the use of force and with violence, then anarchy is the outcome. So all of us have a stake in what’s going on in Abu Dhabi today but we are all excluded from it. That’s the worrying aspect of what’s happening at the moment.”

Lord Robertson thank you for joining us.

Paul Lay is writing the newsletter until Iain Martin is back from holiday next week. Paul is senior editor at Engelsberg Ideas. He is a former editor of History Today, reviews for The Times, the Telegraph and Literary Review, and is the author of Providence Lost: The Rise and Fall of Cromwell’s Protectorate (Head of Zeus, 2020), which was shortlisted for the Cundill History Prize.

‘There’s no magic money tree’, posted Martin Abrams, a Green Party councillor in Streatham, South London, in one of many supposedly wry criticisms of the state banquet held for President Trump at Windsor Castle on Wednesday. Yes, it was a lavish affair, the kind of thing the Brits do sublimely well, which clearly impressed and flattered the Donald into behaving himself, mostly.

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After nine years, this is Reaction’s final Daily Briefing and my last day working here.

It is also, very sadly, the final day that we will be publishing new content from our fantastic columnists. (Old pieces will all remain up on the Reaction Substack).

Iain Martin will continue to write his newsletter on politics, geopolitics, history and culture every week for paid subscribers. Look out for his next offering this weekend, and read more from Iain about changes at Reaction here.

Thank you to all of our writers: Tim Marshall, Jenny Hjul, Adam Boulton, Maggie Pagano, David Waywell, Gerald Warner, Gerald Malone, Anthony Peters, Patrick Barrow, Neil Collins, Ian Stewart, Andrew Wilton, John Freeman, Giga Watt and James Rose. Some already write their own personal Substacks and there are others who intend to follow suit soon so do follow the hyperlinks to check out their individual pages.

And thank you to so many others who have written for Reaction and played an integral role over the years. I'm sorry that there are too many of you to name but your contributions are very much appreciated.

A big thank you to Iain and Maggie for their wonderful mentorship. They have helped so many young journalists, myself included, to find their feet and given them the confidence - and freedom - to flourish. Fiona Martin, meanwhile, has put in enormous work behind the scenes daily to keep Reaction running.

Finally, thank you to all of our readers for supporting Reaction over the years, and for your encouraging and insightful feedback that makes it all worthwhile.

After a nurturing - and stimulating - four and a half years, I will be starting a new role as Commissioning Editor at Engelsberg Ideas.

If you have any queries, I will still be reachable for now on caitlin@reaction.life

Stark new evidence has revealed yet again this week that Japan’s efforts to reverse a demographic time bomb are failing. 

Population decline in a nation that is home to the oldest population in the world bar the tiny state of Monaco, where adult incontinence pads vastly outsell nappies, shows no sign of slowing. On the contrary, according to new data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, deaths in Japan outnumbered births by 900,000 last year, the largest population fall on record.

Recorded births have plummeted by over two thirds since their post-war peak and, over the next 50 years, Japan is projected to shrink by an equivalent of the entire population of Malaysia. 

This failure to reverse the trend of plummeting birth rates is not for want of trying.

“Our nation is on the cusp of whether it can continue to function as a society”, warned Fumio Kishida, Japan’s then-Prime Minister, in January 2023, amid growing fears that a shrinking youthful population would cause acute labour shortages, further stifle economic growth and leave the elderly with no-one to care for them. 

Kishida’s warning has since been followed by renewed government efforts to slow the demographic trend - ranging from even more generous subsidies for families to quirkier recent policies such as Tokyo’s introduction of a four-day working week to give couples more time to procreate.  

But, as we are seeing in Japan and across much of the rest of the world, once a low birth rate sets in, it’s a very difficult pattern to reverse. 

Britain too is contending with a shrinking future workforce and soaring pension and care costs as the post-war baby boom generation grows old. The number of babies being born in England has reached its lowest levels since the 1970s while the number of people aged over 85 is projected to double by 2047.

The causes of a baby bust - be that in Britain, Italy, Japan, China or elsewhere - appear to be broadly similar: increased urbanisation, concerns about the rising cost of living and better economic opportunities for women all play a part. 

There are culturally specific factors too that perpetuate the trend in certain countries. In Japan, a punishing work culture as well as traditional domestic gender roles – which place considerable pressure on women to take on the bulk of child-rearing responsibilities – are also cited as factors that discourage family-building. 

If an ageing population is such a difficult trend to slow or reverse, then the emphasis should perhaps be on finding ways for societies to cope with this new demographic reality. 

In Japan - despite its historical pre-occupation with preserving “ethnic homogeneity" - there appears to be a growing acceptance that its society cannot cope without some loosening of its traditionally strict immigration laws.

The number of foreign residents in Japan increased by more than 10 per cent last year to a record high of 3.6 million people, according to government data released this week. In the year 2000, migrants comprised 1.34 per cent of the Japanese population, today that figure is closer to 3 per cent and, within 20 years, it’s projected to rise to 10 per cent.

In the past, Japan’s foreign worker schemes, such as the TITP, sparked controversy for poor human rights oversight. Vietnam and Japan’s diplomatic relations were strained, for instance, in 2018 after a number of Vietnamese workers on the scheme were made to clear up nuclear contamination in Fukushima without proper protection. Yet Japan now finds itself under pressure to treat foreign workers better since it faces increasing competition in attracting foreign labour from neighbours such as South Korea, Taiwan and China who are grappling too with ageing societies. 

Tokyo is also playing to its strengths by finding innovative technological solutions to care for an elderly population. “Carer robots” being developed include Sugano’s AIREC robot, which can help a patient sit up, put on socks, cook scrambled eggs and fold laundry. 

While Japan’s demographic path is far from unique, it is years ahead of most other countries owing to its consistently low fertility rate since the 1970s. 

This makes it a vital case study for other nations enduring similar challenges. Some demographers have even gone as far as to label it a “harbinger state”. Britain, and much of the world, will look to Japan in the coming years - and decades - as they too desperately seek sustainable solutions to managing an ageing population.

Caitlin Allen

Deputy Editor

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Azerbaijan and Armenia to sign peace agreement - After decades of conflict, Azerbaijan and Armenia are expected to sign a peace deal in Washington today. The agreement will create a major transit corridor, named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, between the nations. The US President will host both countries’ leaders individually before a three-way joint signing in the White House State Dinning Room.

Germany suspends arms to Israel - Germany, Israel’s second largest weapons supplier after the US, halted all arms exports to Israel today, amid an increasing international outcry at Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu’s confirmed plan to fully re-occupy the Gaza Strip.

US doubles Maduro’s bounty - A $50m reward is to be granted for information leading to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the US government. The Trump administration has accused him of being directly connected to drug smuggling, and “one of the largest narco-traffickers in the world.” The Foreign Minister of Venezuela Yvan Gil said the move was “pathetic” and hit out at Trump accusing him of trying to distract from the Jeffrey Epstein case.

Trump’s deadline for Russia expiring today - Donald Trump’s deadline for Russia reaching a ceasefire with Ukraine has expired today, after Russian missiles hit Ukraine in overnight strikes.

FIVE THINGS

1. Why do we get the wrong leaders, asks James Vitali in Engelsberg Ideas.

2. Meet the new Middle East, same as the old Middle East. Stephen M. Walt in Foreign Policy.

3. Rushanara Ali’s resignation hands yet another gift to Nigel Farage, writes Chris Smyth in The Times

4. The most Nihilistic conflict on earth: Sudan’s devastating civil war shows what will replace the liberal order - anarchy and greed, says Anne Applebaum in The Atlantic.

5. How to resist a dictator: Sviatlana Tshikhanouskaya on what Belarus’s democratic opposition reveals - and what it needs to win, in Foreign Affairs.

While researching the ongoing war in Ukraine, I stumbled upon a story that seemed minor at first glance but quickly led me down a deeper geopolitical rabbit hole.

In March 2024, Romanian authorities discovered the wreckage of what appeared to be a Russian military drone in a field near Romania’s border with Ukraine.

Naturally, the idea of a Russian drone crashing in a NATO country is concerning. But what really caught my attention was the precise location of the crash.

The drone had come down on a massive stretch of farmland—56,000 hectares in total, significantly larger than the entire island of Malta. Even more intriguing, this land had been purchased in 2018 by a firm based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), one with close ties to the Emirati government. The company reportedly paid over €200 million for the land and committed to invest another €500 million into the site.

This wasn’t just a one-off deal. It’s part of a much larger and largely overlooked trend.

Over the past 15 years, countries and corporations—often backed by foreign governments—have been quietly acquiring farmland and the associated supply chain infrastructure around the world.

While some of these are routine investments, a significant portion appear to be strategic acquisitions by entities linked to governments in the Middle East, China, and other emerging powers.

Reliable figures are hard to come by, largely because many of these deals have attracted little attention in the world’s media. However, the available data paints a striking picture. According to the non-profit organization GRAIN, UAE-linked companies have acquired approximately 960,000 hectares of farmland globally since 2008.

China’s footprint is even larger. One estimate puts its overseas land acquisitions—across agriculture, forestry, and mining—at 6.4 million hectares, roughly the size of Latvia.

At the heart of these deals is a geopolitical strategy that contrasts sharply with that of the West. While Western governments have historically trusted in global commodity markets to secure their food and raw materials, others—like China and the UAE—have opted for direct control.

By owning farmland outright, and the associated supply chain infrastructure, these nations are securing guaranteed access to one of the world’s most essential resources: food.

This strategy has been shaped by hard lessons from the recent past. In 2007–2008, a global food crisis—caused by widespread droughts and soaring oil prices (a key input in fertilizers)—led to massive spikes in food costs. Wheat prices, for instance, doubled in 2007 and reached a then-record high of over $11 per bushel by March 2008.

These price shocks triggered unrest across many parts of the world, with protests erupting over the soaring cost of basic food staples. While no governments fell, the instability served as a stark warning: hungry populations can quickly become volatile.

The threat hasn’t gone away. Food prices spiked again in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted wheat exports from these two key countries. While prices have since fallen, long-term pressures continue to mount. The global population is projected to increase by nearly 2 billion over the next 25 years, placing unprecedented strain on food systems.

Meanwhile, climate change is already disrupting traditional agriculture. Droughts, floods, and shifting weather patterns are making crop yields increasingly unpredictable. A recent study in Nature estimates that global crop yields could decline by 8% by 2050—and by as much as 24% by 2100—due to climate-related disruptions.

These countries have shown great strategic foresight in seeking to secure their long-term food supplies. Unfortunately, in an interconnected global system, one nation’s food security can become another’s vulnerability.

When the next crisis comes, the fact that so much of the world’s food supply is controlled by a few states means that the rest of the world will either be forced to fight over the remaining supplies or accept whatever terms the owners impose.

Western states are finally coming to terms with how vulnerable they have become by allowing China to corner the market in rare earth metals. Now they need to wake up to this new reality in global food markets.

Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu has confirmed his intention today to re-occupy the entire Gaza Strip - a plan facing a backlash not just from humanitarian groups and hostage families but from Israel’s military leadership too. 

The IDF currently controls around 75 per cent of Gaza. The remaining 25 per cent includes Gaza City and other neighbourhoods in central Gaza, where much of the strip’s two million Palestinians have sought refuge, living in overcrowded tent cities.

Netanyahu’s plan for “full conquest” of Gaza would reportedly be a “phased” plan to take control of the remaining parts of the territory, which would last four to five months and involve sending tens of thousands of Israeli soldiers into the enclave. 

Israeli media reports that the plan would initially focus on taking full control of Gaza City and newly displacing around one million Palestinians there. The UN has warned of the “catastrophic consequences” for what amounts to half of Gaza’s population, who are now concentrated in this area following repeated displacement. 

Speaking to the BBC, Caroline Willeman, a doctor working in Gaza for MSF expressed concern that the plan would make the medical charity's work "extremely difficult, if not impossible". 

"It seems unfathomable to me that we have to imagine a situation that can get even worse than the total apocalypse we find ourselves in already”, she added.

Meanwhile, Israeli hostage families have reacted with fear to reports that the IDF will intensify military operations in some central areas of the strip where hostages are thought to be held. Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan is being held captive by Hamas in Gaza, called for protests outside the Israeli security cabinet meeting today, denouncing the talks being held on a full Gaza takeover as a "death cabinet meeting". 

The Hostage Families Forum have called “on IDF commanders at all levels not to act in a way that will endanger hostages' lives”, and made a direct plea to IDF chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, to stand up against Netanyahu's new plan.

The plea to Zamir comes amid a growing split between Israel’s military leadership and much of its political echelon.

While Netanayahu insists that his new plan is the only way to “destroy Hamas”, the IDF chief of staff, Lt Gen Eyal Zamir, is said to have warned top Israeli officials on Tuesday evening that re-occupying Gaza would further endanger living Israeli hostages and plunge Israel into a “black hole” of prolonged insurgency.

According to Israeli media, Mossad chief David Barnea is also opposed to this expanded military operation and wants to focus on diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire-hostage deal. 

Earlier in the week, 550 former Israeli security officials signed an open letter to Donald Trump urging him to “stop the Gaza war!”.

“The IDF has long accomplished the two objectives that could be achieved by force: dismantling Hamas’ military formations and governance… It is our professional judgement that Hamas no longer poses a strategic threat to Israel,” wrote the signatories - including the former chief of the Mossad, former IDF chief, former head of Shin Bet and former Israeli police commissioner - as they urged the US President to “end the war, return the hostages, stop the suffering”. 

Speaking to CBC, Ami Ayalon, the former head of Shin Bet, explained: “We wrote the letter as a result of the way we understand the war, and not because of the moral point of view”.

"But I'm telling you the truth,” he added, “Personally, I am ashamed of what we are doing in Gaza."

That the former security chiefs directed their plea at Trump shows a recognition that he is the one international leader who commands real influence over Netanyahu. 

But, so far, there is little sign that he will intervene to block his plan for a full take-over of the Gaza Strip.

When pressed on his position yesterday, Trump told reporters: “That’s going to be pretty much up to Israel”. 

Caitlin Allen

Deputy Editor

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UK interest rates cut to two-year low - The Bank of England has cut interest rates to 4 per cent - from 4.25 previously - in its fifth cut this year, as Rachel Reeves claims Labour is “putting more money in people’s pockets.” Governor Andrew Bailey said he expects further cuts to be made, without giving a time frame.

Putin confirms he will meet Trump in coming days - Russian leader Vladimir Putin has confirmed that he will meet US President Donald Trump, with the UAE considered a suitable location for a summit. He also insisted that the conditions needed to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have not been, after the idea of a three-way meeting was proposed by the White House. Putin said he would only be prepared to meet Zelensky in the “final phase” of negotiations.

US tariffs come into effect - Trump’s tariffs have officially come into effect today, pushing the average US tariff rate to 15.2%. This is well above 2.3% last year and the highest level since the Second World War.

First migrants detained under “one in, one out” deal - The first people to return to France, under the UK’s “one in, one out” agreement with France, are expected to leave the country within the next weeks. Eligible asylum seekers abroad who have links to the UK will be allowed in through the new route. Home Office sources have suggested that the deal would currently only apply to about 50 asylum seekers.

FIVE THINGS

1. Digital ID’s would save us all time and money, says Edward Lucas in The Times.

2. What Starmer can learn from ‘Airbus Albo.’ Cian Hussey in CapX.

3. Stefan Wolff in The Conversation: Trump has finally realised he needs economic and military muscle to force Putin to agree a peace deal.

4. Spain’s Huawei deal is a wake-up call for U.S. federal procurement reform, says Daria Bahrami on War On The Rocks.

5. Bruna Frascolla on the origins of Brazil’s judicial tyranny, in Compact.

The mayor of Hiroshima has called on the world’s most powerful countries to abandon nuclear deterrence today as Japan marks a solemn anniversary: 80 years since the Americans dropped the world’s first nuclear bomb on the city of Hiroshima, ending the Second World War through devastating means. 

The ceremony in the city’s peace memorial park was attended by Japanese prime minister Shigeru Ishiba and officials from 120 countries. It was perhaps the last significant opportunity for large numbers of hibakusha – survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki – to recount their experiences about the horror of nuclear warfare. Less than 100,000 survivors are still alive, and their average age is 86. 

This is a significant anniversary too because it falls at a time when the threat of an atomic weapon being used in the 21st century is on the rise. Speaking from Hiroshima, mayor Kazumi Matsui voiced grave concern about the “accelerating trend towards military build-up” worldwide, and over the growing acceptance of “the idea that nuclear weapons are essential for national defence”.

He labelled these developments a "flagrant disregard [of] lessons the international community should have learned from the tragedies of history".

The dropping of the US atomic bombs in Hiroshima on 6 August 1945 and on Nagasaki three days later killed more than 200,000 people - some from the immediate blast and others from radiation sickness and burns. The legacy of the weapons still haunts survivors, many of whom have suffered multiple cancers from radiation exposure. 

The horror unleashed prompted Japan to surrender, finally ending the Second World War. As Iain MacGregor writes in Engelsberg Ideas today, the Japanese empire’s acceptance of unconditional surrender was a unique moment. It was the only time in modern history that a major industrial nation has chosen to surrender without a single enemy soldier occupying its territory. 

The use of such a devastating arsenal changed the post-war world forever. As MacGregor puts it, the realisation dawned: “If such a weapon should proliferate around the globe, they could not just destroy cities, but would wipe out civilisation itself.”

In 2024, Nihon Hidankyo, a Japanese group of atomic bomb survivors won the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts to rid the world of nuclear weapons and raise awareness about the catastrophic consequences of their use. 

Unfortunately, their mission has been heavily set back by an increasingly dangerous new world order. Amid such geopolitical volatility, the threat of widespread nuclear proliferation is once again rearing its ugly head.

Russian aggression in Europe, combined with the (partial) withdrawal of the US security blanket, has, for instance, already prompted Poland to shift its stance on nuclear weapons. In March, President Donald Tusk told Polish parliament: “We must achieve the most modern capabilities even in nuclear weapons.”

Nine countries currently possess nuclear weapons: the US, Russia, Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea. Another ten to twenty (including Japan) are “threshold” states, which possess much of the knowledge and skills to make their own bombs, but have yet to do so. 

As James Rose wrote recently in Reaction, looking at recent history, it’s difficult to escape the bleak conclusion that having nuclear weapons buys you security. 

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the newly independent Ukraine was left with the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal. In 1994, it agreed to hand over all of its nuclear warheads to Moscow in exchange for security assurances from Russia, the US and the UK. 

Following Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, former US President Bill Clinton expressed regret for piling pressure on Kyiv to sign the 1994 deal, conceding that “Russia [would not] have pulled this stunt if Ukraine still had their weapons”.

The brutal regimes of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Colonel Gaddafi both gave up their nuclear weapons programmes, only to later be attacked and deposed by Western states. Other nations will have taken note. 

Successive Japanese government have rejected calls by hibakusha survivors to sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, setting out to ban the possession and use of nuclear weapons. In an ironic historical twist, Japan has done so because being under the nuclear umbrella of its now-ally America offers it protection.

Dozens of countries have signed the treaty, but - perhaps unsurprisingly - none of these signatures come from recognised nuclear powers or nations, such as Japan, that consider themselves to be indirectly protected by America’s nuclear arsenal.

Satoshi Tanaka, a Japanese atomic bomb survivor, expressed his fears today that the world “will continue to live alongside nuclear weapons that could wipe out humanity multiple times over."

An end to the age of “Mutually Assured Destruction” does indeed appear further off than ever. 

Caitlin Allen

Deputy Editor

ON REACTION TODAY

David Waywell

Goodbye Reaction

READ HERE

Gerald Warner

Strategic neutralisation is Ukraine’s best survival tactic

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Anthony Peters

Reeves is rapidly running out of options

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Taxes must rise, warns UK think tank - The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) has said that Rachel Reeves needs to raise taxes in the autumn to meet her self-imposed borrowing rules, warning that the government is on track to miss the target it has set itself by £41 bn. It recommended "a moderate but sustained increase in taxes" including reform of the council tax system to make up the shortfall.

Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow - “Constructive” talks have been held between Vladimir Putin and Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff over the “Ukrainian question.” The meeting comes two days ahead of Trump’s deadline, after which he is threatening to impose sanctions on Russia if it refuses to progress in ending its war in Ukraine.

RFK Jr cancels vaccine funding, impacting 22 pharma projects - Robert F Kennedy Jr, the US health secretary, has cancelled $500 million worth of funding for mRNA vaccines being developed to counter viruses that cause diseases such as the flu and Covid-19. Kennedy said that his department will shift funding towards “safer, broader vaccine platforms that remain effective even as viruses mutate.”

Company directors flee UK amid Labour tax raid - An estimated 3,790 company directors have reportedly left the UK since Rachel Reeves’s October budget, up 2,712 from the previous year. The UAE has become the most popular location for those leaving. The Treasury dismissed the exodus, insisting that the UK is still a “highly attractive” business location.

FIVE THINGS

1. Cricket can be at its best when nothing much is happening, writes Patrick Kidd in The Critic

2. Labour needs better enemies, says Tom Clark in Prospect.

3. Fergus McIntosh in The New Yorker on the latest phase in Trump’s war on data.

4. Wall Street Journal: Apple to announce another $100 billion investment in American manufacturing.

5. Migration has radicalised middle England, says Madeline Grant in The Spectator.

Comments by General Thierry Burkhard, outgoing chief of the French armed forces, will reignite debate among defence specialists regarding Russia’s intentions and capabilities, since he considers that Russia is rearming fast enough to become a “real threat” to Europe within five years. That is earlier than the majority of forecasts among defence and intelligence analysts.

Burkhard told The Economist that, by 2030, “Russia will possess the means once again to pose a military threat to Western countries, and European countries in particular.” The analysis itself is less surprising than the timescale. However, such predictions are notoriously difficult to assess and, for counter-intuitive reasons, the fact that Russia is currently engaged in a major war may actually make it more difficult to estimate its military potential five years from now.

Read more

The enormous leverage that Beijing holds over western military supply chains has been thrown into sharp relief today, thanks to a sobering new investigation by The Wall Street Journal.

Beijing’s ongoing restrictions on the flow of critical minerals to US defence manufacturers are forcing companies to delay production of everything from bullets to jet fighters, according to the WSJ. 

In early April, as Donald Trump escalated his trade war with China, Beijing imposed sweeping export controls on seven rare earth elements - samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium - used in everything from laser-guided weapons to cancer treatments. 

The measures followed similar export bans issued by China in December 2024 on gallium, germanium, and antimony— metals used in semiconductors, projectiles and in infrared optics, to allow soldiers to see at night.

More recently, in June, as trade talks with Washington led to a series of concessions from Trump’s administration, Beijing softened its position and allowed many mineral exports to the US to resume. 

But there appears to be a glaring exception to this loosening: China has maintained a lock on critical minerals for defence purposes. 

As the WSJ reports today, China has started to ask companies to provide extensive documentation of how western buyers will use the rare earths and magnets they import - demanding, for instance, that they send product images or photos of production lines. The experience of US company ePropelled suggests that this may be an attempt to track if Chinese materials are being used for military purposes.

ePropelled supplies Chinese-made rare-earth magnets to civilian companies but is also a drones-part manufacturer to the US military and Ukrainian defence companies. (Rare-earth magnets are a key component in drones.) According to the New Hampshire-based supplier, its recent requests to China for imported magnets have been approved for many civilian purposes - but rejected or delayed for defence and aerospace.

As a result, it has been forced to delay some of its orders by up to two months as it scrambles to find a non-Chinese source of magnets. 

Nor is ePropelled the only American company being heavily impacted by China’s export controls. On Wednesday, the chief executive of Leonardo DRS said the US-based defense firm is down to its “safety stock” of germanium, which powers the company’s infrared sensors, used in its missiles. 

Scouring the world for alternative stockpiles of these vital minerals is no easy task. China supplies around 90% of the world’s rare earths and dominates the production of many other critical minerals.

As Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Critical Minerals Security Program points out, numerous countries are working to develop their light and heavy rare earths deposits: Australia, Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Japan, and Vietnam all have initiatives and investments underway to bolster key rare earth mining, processing and magnet manufacturing.

And, in July, the Pentagon agreed to pay $400 million for a stake in MP Materials, the operator of the largest rare-earths mine in the Americas, which is rapidly scaling up its magnet manufacturing capacity.

But, for the time being, China maintains a monopoly on refined heavy rare earths.

According to a new report by the Govini data analytics firm, more than 78 percent of America's military weapons rely on Chinese materials. The US Navy’s dependence is even greater, with over 91% of its systems reliant on minerals from China. US military items reliant on minerals mainly produced in China include drone motors, night-vision goggles, missile-targeting systems, defense satellites and more.

Chinese mineral restrictions also risk significantly driving up prices, and eating into defence budgets. 

Speaking to the WSJ, some individuals in the defence industry warned that certain materials are now going for five or more times what was typical before China’s recent export controls. One (unnamed) company said it was recently offered samarium—an element needed to make magnets that can withstand the extreme temperatures of a jet-fighter engine—for 60 times the standard price.

All the while, Beijing is rapidly expanding its munitions production and acquiring advanced weapons systems at a pace five to six times faster than the US.

As Russia and China complete their second day of joint military drills in the Sea of Japan today, it goes without saying that western nations are left enormously vulnerable by building a military supply chain that runs straight through China.

Caitlin Allen

Deputy Editor

ON REACTION TODAY

Anthony Peters

A week is an aeon in finance

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Ian Stewart

Ian Stewart’s summer reading list

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Ex-Israeli officials appeal to Trump for ceasefire - Amid reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is planning to further expand Israel’s military operations in Gaza, hundreds of former Israeli officials have appealed to President Trump to put pressure on Israel’s government to end the war in Gaza with immediate effect. “Hamas no longer poses a strategic threat to Israel… End the war, return the hostages, stop the suffering,” said the group of around 600 retired Israeli security officials, including former heads of intelligence agencies. The plea comes as the number of Palestinians in Gaza who have reportedly died from malnutrition since Israel’s offensive began rises to 180, including 93 children.

Forbes to stand down as MSP - Deputy First Minister of Scotland, Kate Forbes, has announced her intention to stand down as an MSP at the 2026 Holyrood election. Forbes - who has served in the role since 2024 and was first elected as an MSP in 2016 - cited her desire to spend more time with her young family but said she remains “wholly supportive” of First Minister John Swinney and looks forward to campaigning for the SNP at the next election. Forbes stood in the 2023 leadership contest after Nicola Sturgeon resigned but faced backlash for her socially conservative views.

India beat England by six runs at Oval - India have beat England by six runs to draw the Test series 2-2 at the Oval, concluding some of the most thrilling Test cricket in decades. Chris Woakes, whose left arm was in a sling, headed out to bat only for Mohammed Siraj to clean up Gus Atkinson before Woakes could face a ball.

FIVE THINGS

1. James Cowling in CapX: The vibe shift that could save the Tories.

2. After Xi: Tyler Jost and Daniel C. Mattingly on the succession question obscuring China’s future - and unsettling its present, in Foreign Affairs.

3. Andrew Lloyd’s journey to the heart of the forgotten internet, in BBC Future

4. Not with a bang, but with a Truth Social post: the US President is rattling a nuclear saver as a distraction, says Tom Nichols in The Atlantic.

5. Can Syria rebuild its economy from the ashes of war, asks Faek Menla Ali in The Conversation.

Let’s get this straight. If Hamas releases its hostages, as part of a Gaza ceasefire deal agreed with Israel, the British government will not recognise Palestine as a state, However, if Hamas refuses to free the hostages, ensuring Israel will not sign a ceasefire deal, the British government will recognise Palestine as a state.

The first scenario is unlikely but let’s say it happens: If Prime Minister Starmer stands by his grandiose words of this week - that he’s always supported a Palestinian state and that, because we have arrived at the moment of maximum impact, “This is the moment to act” - he then has to clear his throat and say: “Actually maybe this is not the moment to act”.

Read more

Donald Trump’s Middle East Envoy, Steve Witkoff, met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel today, as the number of recorded deaths from starvation and malnutrition in Gaza rises to 156, including 90 children. 

Shortly after Witkoff’s arrival, US President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social network: “The fastest way to end the Humanitarian Crises in Gaza is for Hamas to SURRENDER AND RELEASE THE HOSTAGES!!”

According to Israel’s public broadcaster, Kan, Witkoff will also visit a food distribution site in Gaza during his trip to the region. 

It comes as Gaza’s al-Shifa hospital says it has received the bodies of another 54 Palestinians shot dead by Israeli soldiers while waiting for food near the  Zikim crossing yesterday in northern Gaza. Another 400 were reportedly injured in the attack. The Israeli army says its soldiers fired "warning shots”.

Dr Thomas Adamkiewicz, an American paediatrician volunteering at Gaza’s Nasser hospital with US organisation MedGlobal, has urged Witkoff to meet him while in the enclave. Speaking to the BBC, Adamkiewicz described seeing young children passing out in the emergency room from lack of food and spoke of his recent experience treating an 11-year-old boy who will most likely be paralysed for life, after being shot while trying to collect food for his family.

Witkoff is in the Middle East one week after the US pulled its negotiating team out of Qatar, following another breakdown of indirect ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, with both side blaming the other for the deadlock. 

Trump’s special envoy claimed Washington would "consider alternative options” to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and bring Israeli hostages home but did not elaborate on what he meant by this. 

Washington has been far more explicit today in its opposition to the move from a growing number of European allies to recognise Palestinian statehood at the UN General Assembly in September. 

The US - which has already condemned this as “rewarding terrorism” - doubled down on its objection to the plan today by announcing sanctions on officials of the Palestinian Authority and the Palestine Liberation Organization. The State Department said targeted individuals would be barred from traveling to the United States but is yet to identify those targeted.

This is in direct response to the recent spate of announcements on Palestinian statehood because the PA and PLO, rivals of Hamas, are internationally accepted as the representatives of the Palestinian people and administrators of a Palestinian state that France, Britain and Canada have said in recent days they could soon recognise as independent.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio didn’t hold back in his criticism of European allies, describing the American sanctioning of Palestinian officials as “important action” that “exposes the moral distortion of certain countries that ran to recognise a virtual Palestinian state while turning a blind eye to its support for terror and incitement".

A chasm has opened up between Washington and its traditional allies on the longer-term future of Israel and Palestine. 

But new common ground has emerged between western and Arab nations on Hamas. The shift in position on Palestinian statehood from a number of Israel’s allies has prompted many Arab nations, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, to take the unprecedented step of condemning October 7 and calling for Hamas to lay down its arms and surrender control of Gaza. 

Caitlin Allen

Deputy Editor

ON REACTION TODAY

Gerald Warner

The EU's humiliating surrender should have been signed in a railway carriage

READ HERE

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Russian onslaught continues - An overnight Russian aerial attack has killed at least eight people and wounded 82 more in Kyiv, according to Ukrainian officials. Meanwhile, Moscow claims its forces have captured the key town of Chasiv Yar in eastern Ukraine after nearly 18 months of fighting in the area. If confirmed, the seizure of Chasiv Yar would provide a hill top for the Russians, from which they could attack what is known as Ukraine’s fortress belt of cities in the Donetsk region.

Nigeria’s health system under strain - Nurses in Nigeria have begun a seven-day strike, demanding improvements to poor working conditions that have driven tens of thousands of their fellow workers to seek jobs abroad, including in Britain. More than 40,000 nurses have left Nigeria over the past three years, with wealthy nations vying to attract them, feeding fears that the country’s health system is being hollowed out.

India and US launch “first-of-its-kind” satellite - Indian and US space agencies have launched the Nasa-Isro Synthetic Aperture Radar satellite to keep a watch on the Earth’s land, sea and ice sheets to help prepare for natural disasters.

Britain’s blob expands - The size of the civil service has grown to a 20-year high, with 549,660 recorded working in Whitehall at the end of March, up almost 7,000 on the same time last year.

FIVE THINGS

1. Starmer’s move on Palestine statehood is clever politics, argues Brian Brivati in The Conversation.

2. Mariel Borowitz, Lincoln Hines and Lawrence Rubin in War On The Rocks: The United States should act now to mitigate conflict escalation on the Moon.

3. Can any nation protect against an Ukraine-style drone smuggling attack? New Scientist investigates.

4. The Wall Street Journal: Britain caves on Hong Kong extradition.

5. Republicans want to redraw America’s political map: what happens in Texas probably won’t stay there. Elaine Godrey in The Atlantic.

It was a familiar image, a classic hostage situation: two individuals seated side by side, one grey-faced and silent unless spoken to, the other confident, expansive and garrulous. Familiar, too, was the relationship depicted in this vignette: one party a high-ranking European Union official, the other a negotiator from a non-EU country. How often have we in Britain witnessed that set-piece ritual of humiliation, with an EU apparatchik dictating terms, de haut en bas, to the rabbit in the headlights apologetically representing the UK?

Read more

Donald Trump has a new target today in his tariff war against the world: his “good friend” India.

As the end of his “Liberation Day” tariff grace period looms this Friday, the US President has threatened to impose a 25 per cent tariff on the world’s most populous country unless it finalises a trade deal with the US this week.

“India has been a good friend, but India has charged basically more tariffs than almost any other country,” said Trump. 

“Now I'm in charge, and you just can't do that," he added.

Delhi’s steep import taxes were not his only gripe. He also threatened to impose an (unspecified) “penalty” on India for propping up Russia’s war economy: “They have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia’s largest buyer of ENERGY, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to STOP THE KILLING IN UKRAINE’”. 

Trump’s crowning of India as the world’s “tariff king” is not illogical. The Southeast Asian nation is indeed a notorious offender when it comes to whacking vast import taxes on other countries. 

As Gerald Warner pointed out in Reaction, in 2023, the average US tariff on imports was 3.3 per cent – marginally lower than the UK’s which averaged 3.8 per cent. Meanwhile, the EU’s average tariff on imports was 5 per cent, China’s was 7.5 per cent and India’s was 17 per cent. 

India was one of the first countries to open bilateral trade negotiations with Trump this year but, in recent weeks, negotiations have encountered significant obstacles. Agriculture is reportedly a sticking point, with Delhi seeking to retain steep tariffs on many agricultural imports, which include 70-80 per cent duties on US rice. 

Both countries have plenty to gain from reduced trade barriers. The US is by a long way the biggest importer of Indian textiles, accounting for around 29 per cent of the total share. It’s also the number one importer of Indian pharmaceutical products and the largest importer of Indian leather. 

A 25 per cent tariff on Delhi would also impact Apple’s plan to source more than 60 million iPhones sold each year in the US from India by the end of 2025. As US companies sought to diversify away from China, India accounted for 44 per cent of smartphones imported to the US in the second quarter of this year, up from 13 per cent in the same period in 2024.

Sanjay Kathuria, a visiting senior fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress, argues that the US President’s obsession with tariffs will have done Delhi a favour if it encourages India to abandon its self-defeating protectionist trade policies.

The UK and India finally signed a free trade agreement last week after more than three and a half years of negotiations. But, in general, India’s “tariff king” status has been a major roadblock in its efforts to secure comprehensive deals with key trading partners. “For India, rethinking its approach to trade is not about appeasing Trump—it is about fixing a system that undermines its export potential, weakens its position as a serious China+1 contender, limits its ability to secure comprehensive FTAs, and obstructs its broader economic ambitions,” says Kathuria. 

Rather less in Indian PM Narendra Modi’s interest, however, will be responding to Trump’s other demand: to stop gorging on Russian energy - or face “additional punitive measures”. 

If Putin does not halt his war in Ukraine within nine days, Trump has warned that the sanctions he will subsequently impose on Russia includes “secondary tariffs” on its energy customers.

India’s imports of Russian oil have risen dramatically over the past few years - from less than 1 per cent of its total crude oil imports before Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, to a staggering 40 per cent. Since February 2022, India has brought over 130 billion dollars worth of Russian crude.

The reason being economic opportunism. Delhi has traditionally sourced its oil from the Middle East but, after western nations shunned Moscow as a trading partner, it has been able to purchase Russian oil at a significant discount. 

India -  the world’s largest importer of arms – also buys 50 per cent of its military equipment from Moscow. 

All of which explains why India has conveniently retained its “neutral” stance on the war in Ukraine. It doesn’t want to choose between the US and Russia, both valuable trading partners. 

But if Trump carries through with his secondary sanctions threat, Modi’s careful balancing act will become that much harder. 

Caitlin Allen

Deputy Editor

ON REACTION TODAY

David Waywell

Democrats are wasting their time by focussing on Jeffrey Epstein

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Palestine Action win permission to challenge ban - The High Court has ruled that Palestine Action Group has the right to challenge its UK government ban under terrorism legislation, over conflicts with right to free speech. Under the law, membership or support for the organisation can lead to up to 14 years in jail. The group, launched in July 2020, has carried out nearly 400 actions against firms connected to the Israeli military, including a break-in which led to £7m worth of damage to jets at RAF Prize Norton.

British Jewish leaders call for further Gaza aid - The Board of Deputies of British Jews, the UK’s largest Jewish organisation, has called for a “rapid, uninhibited, and sustained increase in aid through all available channels” in Gaza, with Phil Rosenberg, the board’s president, asserting that “food must not be used as a weapon of war, by any side in this conflict.” This rare implicit criticism of the Israeli government comes a month after the board took disciplinary action against 36 elected representatives who signed an open letter critical of Israel's actions in Gaza.

US offered critical minerals deal and military base by Somaliland - The breakaway region of Somaliland has offered Washington a mineral deal as well as a military base near the Red Sea entrance, in exchange for official diplomatic recognition. Having declared independence from Somalia in 1991, it has yet to receive international recognition. The US State Department recently said it recognised only “one Somalia.”

Tsunami alerts across Pacific after high-magnitude earthquake in Russia - An 8.8 magnitude earthquake, the sixth most powerful recorded since 1900, off Russia’s eastern coast sent tsunami waves into Japan, Hawaii and the US west coast on Wednesday morning. The worst of the threat is thought to have passed. Evacuations were ordered across the Pacific including for 2 million people in Japan where the warning has now been downgraded to advisory. Hawaii’s warning has also been downgraded to the same level. Although some tsunami advisory was cancelled in some areas of coastal California, a warning remains in effect for significant portions. Warnings were issued elsewhere, including in China, the Philippines, Indonesia, New Zealand, Peru, Mexico and Chile.

FIVE THINGS

1. England and Wales population grows at near-record levels. Delphine Strauss in the Financial Times.

2. In conversation with Elisabeth Kendall on what the Houthis really want, in Engelsberg Ideas.

3. What does China want in Ukraine? Beijing’s Ambivalence is limiting its role, writes Da Wei in Foreign Affairs.

4. Labour need to stop dithering on defence. James Cartlidge in CapX.

5. William Hague in The Times: Push for peace now or the two-state dream is dead.

Taiwan’s President has suffered the second blow to his authority in the space of just a few days as he called off an overseas trip planned for next week, after Donald Trump reportedly blocked him from entering US soil.  

Lai Ching-te had intended to stop over in New York on 4 August then Dallas 10 days later during his diplomatic tour to visit allies in Paraguay, Guatemala and Belize.

Now, all three trips have been called off. The official line from Lai’s office is that he needed to stay at home to focus on domestic issues such as typhoon recovery work. But, according to sources who spoke to the Financial Times, Lai’s travel plans were thrown into disarray late last week when Trump officials denied him permission to transit through the US after Beijing raised objections about the visit with Washington.

China claims the democratically governed island of Taiwan as its own territory - a claim Taiwan rejects - and refuses to engage with Lai, labelling him a “separatist” who spreads “heresy”. China wants to isolate Taipei on the global stage and regularly denounces any show of support for Taiwan’s independence agenda from Washington.

Like most countries, the US has no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan and attempts to balance its support for the island with efforts to avoid provoking Beijing. It has, however, repeatedly stated that it would help defend Taiwan militarily in the event of a Chinese invasion. 

While all of Taiwan’s sitting presidents since the 1990s have travelled to the US on stopovers, denying a Taiwanese leader the right to travel through America is not without precedent. In 2006, then-President George W Bush refused transit to Chen Shui-bian after he enacted a series of pro-independence policies that the Bush administration deemed too provocative. 

This time, the refusal appears to have less to do with any recent development in Taiwan - and rather more to do with Trump’s trade agenda. 

According to sources cited in The FT, US officials were concerned that allowing Lai to enter US soil could derail Washington’s ongoing trade negotiations with China. 

China hawks have condemned the US President for undermining Taiwan’s security by reducing the self-ruled democracy to a trade-war bargaining chip. 

Former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whose 2022 visit to Taipei prompted fury from Beijing, warned that denying Lai permission to visit New York sends a worrying signal: “that the United States can be bullied by Beijing into silence on Taiwan”.

“Let us hope it is not indicative of a dangerous change in US policy”, she added.

This snub from Washington is the second setback Lai has suffered in recent days.

Over the weekend, more than a dozen lawmakers from Taiwan’s opposition KMT party survived the biggest ever attempt by campaign groups to remove them from office.

Taiwan is one of the few democracies in the world that allows voters to throw out elected representatives between elections by signing petitions. 

On Saturday, 24 KMT politicians faced recall votes after campaign groups accused these “pro-China” lawmakers of undermining Taiwan's national security. But the majority of voters in all 24 districts subject to recall backed them. 

The failed attempt to oust the lawmakers has emboldened Taiwan’s main opposition party, whose agenda includes forging closer ties with Beijing. 

Lai, who only narrowly won last year’s presidential election, had hoped that the months-long recall campaign would unlock Taiwan’s political deadlock. While the Democratic Progressive Party leader won the 2024 presidency, such a tight victory meant that he ceded control of parliament. This has provided ample opportunity for opposition parties to thwart Lai’s agenda. 

Some of Lai’s backers have accused KMT lawmakers of sabotaging Taiwan from within, and deliberately weakening the government to facilitate a Chinese invasion. The KMT party rejects claims that it is “pro-China”, insisting that it is simply towing a more pragmatic line and recognising that Taiwan cannot afford to have zero communication with Beijing. 

The next presidential election is not until 2028, meaning the man who China deems a heretic is set to cling onto power for some time still. But, this week, amid snubs from Trump and the unexpected flop of the recall campaign, Lai has been weakened at home and abroad. 

Caitlin Allen

Deputy Editor

ON REACTION TODAY

Gerald Warner

The Thai-Cambodian conflict may be a gamble in more senses than one

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Giga Watt

Miliband's auction undermines the logic that renewables are cheaper than gas

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UK could recognise Palestinian statehood in September- Following an emergency meeting with his cabinet on the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza, Keir Starmer announced that the UK will recognise a Palestinian state at a UN meeting in September unless Israel meets certain conditions beforehand. He said that the recognition will happen unless the Israeli government takes "substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza", including committing to a ceasefire and a long-term peace process.

Gunman kills four in New York - A shooter has killed four people at a Manhattan skyscraper, including an NYPD officer. The 27-year-old gunman identified as Shane Tamura from Las Vegas went to a building which houses the NFL headquarters and financial firms, opening fire before turning the gun on himself. Tamura had a recorded history of mental illness.

Ukrainians killed in further Russian strikes - President Zelensky has said that at least 22 people in Ukraine, including three at a hospital in Kaminanske and 17 in a prison in Belinke, have been killed by Russian strikes overnight. Another 85 were injured in the attacks, with eight strikes launched against the Zaporizhzhia region according to its governor.

Trump calls out Starmer on North Sea tax hike - Donald Trump has hit out at Keir Starmer on Truth Social, hours after their meeting in Scotland, over taxes on North Sea oil. The US President insisted that the North Sea was a “treasure chest for the United Kingdom”, adding that the taxes make “no sense.”

FIVE THINGS

1. Russians worry what happens when the soldiers come home, writes Elvira Bary in The Spectator.

2. How the UK could reform the European Convention on Human Rights. Joelle Grogan in The Conversation.

3. Lee Cole asks in Prospect: How on earth can fiction respond to Trump?

4. Crimes rates really have fallen: the data is undeniable, Noah Carl says in The Critic.

5. You might be ghosting the internet. Can it survive? Thomas Germain BBC Future.

The news that Thailand and Cambodia had agreed to an unconditional ceasefire, brokered by Malaysian prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, under background mediation by the United States and China, came as a relief to an international community already beset by conflicts. Whether this truce will hold remains to be seen; the next event in the geopolitical diary of both parties is the scheduled meeting of their General Border Committee, due to be hosted by Cambodia on 4 August.

This brief conflict has already claimed at least 36 lives and uprooted 270,000 displaced persons on both sides of the border. It is the border that is allegedly the main cause of the conflict: there have been longstanding disputes over a frontier originally drawn on colonial maps. In 1907 Cambodia, then a French colony, signed a treaty with Siam (now Thailand), delineating their 500-mile-long border.

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Thailand and Cambodia have traded heavy artillery fire across their shared border for a second consecutive day in the bloodiest military confrontation between the two Southeast Asian neighbours for over a decade.

“The situation has intensified and could escalate into a state of war,” acting Thai Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai warned reporters.

The spiralling border battle has killed at least 16 people in Thailand while Cambodia's government is yet to provide information on fatalities. Over 130,000 people from border towns have now been evacuated. 

A Thai military official said today that skirmishes have been reported in 12 different locations along the border, up from 6 yesterday, indicating a widening of the conflict. 

Thailand has accused Cambodia of deliberately targeting civilians by dropping rockets into residential areas, while Cambodia alleges that Thailand is using cluster munitions - a widely condemned ordinance. Each nation accuses the other of firing first. 

Both sides have expelled the other’s ambassador and Thai authorities have sealed the 500-mile shared border entirely. Cambodia has even banned Thai movies and TV shows and stopped the import of Thai fuel, fruits and vegetables.

Relations between the neighbouring countries deteriorated sharply in late May after a Cambodian soldier was killed during a border skirmish between Thai and Cambodian troops. 

But tensions have a far longer history. Behind the latest violence lies decades of nationalist rivalry and a border dispute that can be traced back to a 1907 colonial-era map. 

The map in question, created during French colonial rule in Cambodia, was used to separate the two nations and Cambodia refers back to it in a bid to claim territory. Thailand, meanwhile, has long argued that the map is inaccurate. 

One of the biggest points of contention is the 1,000-year-old Preah Vihear temple. In 1962, the International Court of Justice awarded Cambodia sovereignty over the temple area, much to Bangkok’s fury. The ICJ then reaffirmed the ruling in Cambodia's favour in 2013 but Thailand has rejected the court's jurisdiction.

The UN Security Council is set to hold an emergency meeting on the current confrontation later in New York, though Thailand’s foreign ministry has already rejected offers from the US, China and Malaysia to mediate a ceasefire between the rival nations. "We stand by our position that a bilateral mechanism is the best way out," foreign ministry spokesperson, Nikorndej Balankura, told Reuters. 

Most analysts believe an all-out-war is unlikely, given the political risks of major escalation for both sides. Yet neither country seems prepared to back down just yet.

Caitlin Allen

Deputy Editor

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Countries across the globe are toughening their stance on migration

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UK to sign new AUKUS treaty - Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Defence Secretary John Healey are in Australia to sign a new 50-year bilateral AUKUS treaty. The AUKUS partnership between the UK, US and Australia, agreed in 2021, involves building nuclear-powered attack submarines and co-operating in other areas of defence. While the Trump administration has put it under review, raising fears it could pull out, the deal being signed today by the UK and Australia sets out the bilateral aspects of the partnership.

Starmer under pressure to recognise Palestine statehood - Over 100 MPs, led by Labour backbencher and International Development Committee Chair Sarah Champion, have signed a cross-party letter demanding that the Prime Minister recognise Palestine as a state. The letter asserted that British recognition would be “particularly powerful given its role as the author of the Balfour Declaration and the former Mandatory Power in Palestine.” This comes as Downing Street released a statement, calling Israel’s actions in Gaza “unspeakable and indefensible.” The pressure has also come after Emmanuel Macron confirmed that France would recognise a Palestinian state in September at a UN conference.

NHS five day walkout begins - Doctors in England started their five-day strike action today amid disagreement between NHS bosses and the BMA union over pay, with an estimated 50,000 walking out. The BMA has said that the 5.4 per cent pay rise awarded to doctors is not enough as it does not account for historical pay freezes.

FIVE THINGS

1. Wall Street euphoria sparks bubble warning, reports The FT.

2. The 2028 US Presidential race has begun. Elaine Godfrey in The Atlantic.

3. Jung’s map of the soul. Garima Garg in Engelsberg Ideas.

4. He doesn’t know it, but Keir Starmer is channeling LBJ, says Matthew Bowles in CapX.

5. The Economist on how MAGA bullying is backfiring in Brazil and boosting Lula’s government.

The protests outside the Bell Hotel which houses migrants in Epping Forest have re-ignited the debate about the UK’s immigration and asylum policies. These are constantly smouldering and emotional issues which have occasionally burst into flames. They will continue do to so for the foreseeable future.

Similar debates are taking place around the world as mass migration gathers pace, changing societies and their politics. John Donne, and others, have written that “comparisons are odious” but they are also informative. In this case, they inform us of policies we may or may not wish to implement, they might also indicate where we are on a spectrum between hostility and hospitality towards migrants – legal or otherwise.

It's safe to say Iran is far towards the hostile end, but also that the country is dealing with numbers of migrants which dwarf those of most countries. The United Nations International Organization for Migration reports that so far this year 1.4 million Afghans have “returned or been forced to return to Afghanistan” by the Iranian authorities. Another million may be pushed across the border by the end of the year into a country once again ruled by the Taliban and suffering an economic crisis.

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Volodymyr Zelensky is facing one of the most difficult weeks of his presidency to date as the war with Russia rages on, after yesterday’s peace talks failed to yield any progress towards a ceasefire, and a new challenge arises: quelling domestic unrest.

Russia launched 103 attack drones and four missiles at Ukraine overnight, killing three people in the Kharkiv region and wounding at least 10 in Cherkasy, including a 9-year-old child.

The ambush came hours after a Russian and Ukrainian delegation held a third round of peace talks in Istanbul yesterday. The meeting lasted just 40 minutes, with little agreed upon besides further prisoner exchanges. Russia’s rejection once again of Ukraine’s US-backed proposal for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire suggests that Putin has no intention of de-escalating his war in Ukraine and is unfazed by Trump’s tough talk about a 50-day deadline.

Meanwhile, Zelensky faces a further headache at home after a bill passed by the Ukraine’s parliament earlier this week sparked the first major anti-government demonstrations since Russia’s full-scale invasion began. 

Thousands of Ukrainians in Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa and Dnipro have taken to the streets since Tuesday after Zelensky signed a controversial new bill into law which would effectively curb the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies. 

The law passed on Tuesday brought the country’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP) under the control of the prosecutor general, who is appointed by the president.

These two key anti-corruption agencies were set up after Ukraine’s 2014 revolution toppled a pro-Russian government and set Kyiv on a western course. These independent bodies work to weed out high-level government corruption - a central requirement for Ukraine to receive Western aid and a precondition for it progressing on its path to EU membership.  

NABU in particular, while not devoid of problems, is widely acknowledged by Ukrainian and Western experts as one of the country’s most important post-Maidan reforms.

During the war, both agencies have ramped up their work, bringing charges against a swathe of politicians and senior government officials in Zelensky’s administration.

This week, the Ukrainian President -who promised “victory over corruption” after his 2019 election - insisted that a law to increase government oversight of these anti-corruption agencies is intended to “cleanse” them of Russian influence and prevent them from being co-opted against the Ukrainian state. It comes after Kyiv’s domestic security agency arrested two NABU employees on suspicion of their ties to Moscow. 

Critics of the bill are unconvinced. Many civil society experts view the attempted purges as payback for NABU pursuing charges of illicit enrichment and abuse of office against former deputy prime minister Oleksiy Chernyshov, a key ally for the Office of the President. 

Amongst the Ukrainians taking to the streets to protest this “democratic backsliding”, emotions are running high. One demonstrator - just steps away from the site of the 2014 uprising, itself sparked by a democratic rollback - held up a placard yesterday with the message: “My brother didn't die for this kind of future”.

Now, Zelensky appears to have backtracked. He announced today that he will submit an alternative bill to guarantee the autonomy of both anti-corruption bodies. In his message on social media, he did not acknowledge the protests or the backlash but said it was "important that we respect the position of all Ukrainians and are grateful to everyone who stands with Ukraine."

The latter part of his message is a nod to the fact his bill didn’t just prompt a domestic backlash - Kyiv's European allies also expressed serious concern over the legislation. The EU Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, warned on Tuesday that the independence of NABU and SAPO was “essential” for Ukraine’s EU path.

With no end to the war in sight, the last thing Kyiv wants to do is alienate its European partners - partners who have had to repeatedly rebut the Kremlin’s portrayal of Ukraine as a hopelessly corrupt country undeserving of aid. This week, Zelensky risked fuelling Putin’s fire. 

Caitlin Allen

Deputy Editor

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Thailand-Cambodia border clashes kill at least 12 - At least 12 Thais, mostly civilians have died after Thai and Cambodian forces clashed along their disputed border, with relations now at their lowest point in decades. Thailand has deployed fighter jets, while Cambodia has fired artillery and rockets. Cambodia has yet to confirm whether it suffered any casualties.

Starmer and Modi sign trade deal - The signing of a trade deal between the UK and India today has been described as “historic”, by Keir Starmer and Narendra Modi, who described London and Delhi as “natural partners” while addressing an audience at Chequers. The agreement is expected to boost the UK economy by £4.8bn and bring in £6bn worth of investment by British and Indian businesses. Additionally, Indian tariffs on UK goods will be slashed from 15 to 3 per cent.

Cornyn launches new party - Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has officially launched a new political party, unnamed as of yet, to “take on the rich and powerful”, alongside Zarah Sultana who recently quit Labour. They labelled the current political system as “rigged” and called for a “new kind of political party, one rooted in our communities, trade unions and social movements”. Corbyn, who led Labour to its worst election defeat in 2019 since 1935, lost the Labour whip in 2020 soon after Keir Starmer became leader of the party.

FIVE THINGS

1. New Statesman on why Tory insiders view Badenoch’s shadow cabinet reshuffle as “weak” and “delusional”.

2. How long can Ofcom allow Nigel Farage to keep his own show? asks Prospect

3. Stefan Wolff in The Conversation: both Russia and Ukraine are waiting for Donald Trump’s 50 days to run out.

4. Chloe Farland on the precious 'white gold' fuel buried in the Earth, in BBC Future.

5. The coming Pax Geriatrica. Mark L. Haas, in Foreign Affairs, on how aging societies and depopulation will lead to fewer wars.

Ten more Palestinians have died of malnutrition today, amid warnings from over 100 NGOs operating in Gaza that “mass starvation” is spreading across the entire strip.

"With supplies now totally depleted, our colleagues and those we serve are wasting away”, said the 111 signatories, which included Médecins Sans Frontières, Save the Children and Oxfam, in a joint open letter.

The organisations were clear that their staff are not just witnessing the humanitarian catastrophe but actually living it: “As the Israeli government’s siege starves the people of Gaza, Palestine, aid workers are now joining the same food lines, risking being shot just to feed their families.”

“Palestinians are trapped in a cycle of hope and heartbreak, waiting for assistance and ceasefires, only to wake up to worsening conditions,” they wrote, adding: “It is not just physical torment, but psychological. Survival is dangled like a mirage”.

The groups called for an immediate negotiated ceasefire and for the free flow of aid into Gaza through UN-led mechanisms.

An Israeli government spokesperson claimed today that there are over 700 aid trucks inside Gaza waiting to be picked up by the UN. But the UN has said that it struggles to get the necessary Israeli authorisation to collect any supplies from crossing points and safely transport them through military zones - or to get guarantees that Israeli forces won’t open fire on civilians who approach its aid lorries. 

Doctors, meanwhile, warn that, as the number of patients being admitted to hospitals for symptoms related to malnourishment grows, their ability to provide urgent medical care is being hindered by their own hunger.

“They are in a state of extreme exhaustion. Some have fainted in the operating rooms,” Dr Mohammed Abu Selmia, the director of al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City, told The Guardian over the phone, adding that his staff had not received any meals in the past 48 hours. 

French news agency, AFP, one of the world’s largest news services, has appealed to the Israeli government to facilitate the immediate evacuation of its freelance journalists from Gaza, declaring that “their situation is now untenable”. 

This comes after the AFP’s journalists’ union, the Societe des Journalistes (SDJ), released its own statement on Monday about its distressing contact with colleagues in Gaza. “Their heartbreaking calls for help are now daily”, said the SDJ, adding: “We fear learning of their deaths at any moment”. 

It highlighted a recent message from Bashar Taleb, 30, who works as a photographer for the agency, in which he said: “I don’t have the power to cover media anymore. My body is lean and I no longer have the ability to walk”. 

The union’s statement continued: “Since AFP was founded in August 1944, we have lost journalists in conflicts, we have had injured and imprisoned colleagues among us, but none of us can recall ever seeing a colleague die of hunger”. 

According to the UN, Israeli forces have killed over 1,000 Palestinians seeking aid since the Israel and US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation started operations in late May, replacing the longstanding UN-led aid distribution system.

This week, a former lorry driver for the GHF gave a whistleblower account to ITV of the disturbing scenes he had witnessed at distribution sites. Recalling how trigger-happy soldiers, working alongside GHF private contractors, would fire into the crowds of hungry Palestinians, he told ITV: “They are shooting for the sake of shooting a lot of the time”. The GHF has rejected his claims as false. 

Against this desperate backdrop, the 111 signatories have ended their letter by warning western nations that “piecemeal arrangements and symbolic gestures, like airdrops or flawed aid deals, serve as a smokescreen for inaction.”

“States can and must save lives”, they conclude, “before there are none left to save”.

Caitlin Allen

Deputy Editor

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US-Japan trade deal agreed - The US and Japan have agreed to what Donald Trump has hailed as the “the largest trade deal in history”. Under the agreement, Japanese imports will face a 15 per cent tariff, down from the 25 per cent he previously threatened to implement from August onwards.

Protests in Ukraine over bill targeting anti-corruption bodies - Protests have taken place in Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro and Odesa over President Zelensky’s signing of a bill which, according to critics, weakens the independence of anti-corruption bodies in Ukraine. Zelensky has defended the bill as a means to clear such agencies of “Russian influence”.

Tom Hayes has criminal conviction overturned - The banker at the centre of the Libor interest rate-rigging scandal, Tom Hayes, has had his criminal conviction quashed by the Supreme Court. It concluded that “inaccurate and unfair” instructions were given to the jury which resulted in Hayes becoming the first banker jailed over the scandal in 2015. The Serious Fraud Office has said it would not seek a retrial after the ruling.

UK and Turkey close to agreement over Typhoon fighter jets - The UK is expected to sell Typhoon fighter jets to Turkey in a multibillion-pound deal which signals increase defence cooperation between the two countries. This comes after Germany dropped its opposition to the sale, with UK officials confirming its “Eurofighter partner nations are supportive, including Germany.”

FIVE THINGS

1. AI slop might finally cure our internet addiction, writes Emma Marris in The Atlantic.

2. How to cure our humiliating governmental dysfunction. Tom Jones in CapX.

3. Giving youngsters the vote won’t have much impact on elections, but they would punish any party that tried to stop it. Daniel Finkelstein in The Times on why opposing votes at 16 would cost the Tories dear.

4. Darel E. Paul in Compact on how the West changed its mind on immigration.

5. Is Trump really turning the tables on the Epstein story? The Beltway press’s favourite source thinks so. Ben Mathis Lilley in Slate.

“We come together with a simple, urgent message: the war in Gaza must end now,” said a joint statement released earlier today by the foreign ministers of 25 western countries, Britain included, who warned that “the suffering of civilians in Gaza has reached new depths.”

The demand for an end to the war has already been dismissed by Israel's foreign ministry spokesman Oren Marmorstein who labelled it as “disconnected from reality”, adding that the Israeli government “rejects” it. 

The joint statement was signed by the foreign ministers of Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK. The US and Germany did not sign it.

“It is horrifying that over 800 Palestinians have been killed while seeking aid,” said the signatories, as they fiercely dismissed Israel’s US-backed mechanism for distributing aid in the Gaza Strip, warning that the GHF distribution model is “dangerous, fuels instability and deprives Gazans of human dignity.”

“We condemn the drip-feeding of aid and the inhumane killing of civilians, including children, seeking to meet their most basic needs of water and food,” they added.

Yesterday was one of the deadliest days yet involving Israeli soldiers opening fire on Gazans seeking food and medicine. At least 67 Palestinians were killed and more than 150 injured, according to officials at al Shifa hospital, after Israeli troops opened fire on huge crowds of Palestinians gathering in north Gaza around a UN aid convoy. 

The UN World Food Programme said that, soon after it crossed the border from Israel via the Zikim crossing, its aid convoy “encountered massive crowds of hungry civilians which came under gunfire”. Footage taken by the UN showed Gazans running amid the sound of automatic gunfire. The Israeli military did not deny that its soldiers had shot at the crowds but claimed its troops had fired warning shots towards a crowd of thousands to remove “an immediate threat”.

There is also fresh alarm over the Israeli military’s mass evacuation order issued for areas of central Gaza where it has not operated with ground troops since it began its military offensive over a year and nine months ago. 

Aside from being filled with displaced Palestinians, the evacuation order covers an area with key aid warehouses, four health clinics and critical water infrastructure. 

The evacuation demand, which signals an imminent attack on neighbourhoods in Deir al Balah, has also alarmed the families of Israeli hostages, who fear their relatives are being held there, 20 of whom are still thought to be alive. 

“The families of hostages are shaken and fearful after the announcement by the IDF of its intent to operate in central Gaza,” the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in a statement on Sunday. “Enough! The Israeli people overwhelmingly want an end to the fighting and a comprehensive agreement that will return all the hostages,” they added. 

In the joint statement released by foreign ministers today, they also acknowledged that the hostages held by Hamas since October 7 “continue to suffer terribly”, adding: “a negotiated ceasefire offers the best hope of bringing them home and ending the agony of their families”. 

As for how the “immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire” they are calling for will be realised, they insisted: “We reaffirm our complete support to the efforts of the US, Qatar and Egypt to achieve one”.

Yet the plea comes as the ongoing ceasefire talks being held in Qatar have, according to mediators, once again stalled - even despite Donald Trump claiming exactly a fortnight ago: “There’s a good chance we have a deal with Hamas this week”.

While the statement issued today by 25 foreign ministers, David Lammy included, offers strong condemnation, it ultimately amounts to a mere threat to act in the future.

“We are prepared to take further action to support an immediate ceasefire and a political pathway to security and peace for Israelis, Palestinians and the entire region,” they insist, in what critics will deem as harsh but ultimately empty words, paired with further inaction. 

Caitlin Allen

Deputy Editor

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Britain’s water industry reform - As he has pledged to cut sewage pollution in half by 2030, Environment Secretary, Steve Reed, confirmed today that the government will scrap the UK’s water regulator, Ofwat, and replace it with a new regulator that stands “firmly on the side of customers, investors and the environment”. A landmark review into the water sector, out today, warns that water bills are going to rise by 30 per cent over the next five years.

UK government to review state pension age - Labour has announced a review into Britain’s state pension age, three years ahead of schedule, opening the door for it to be raised early. The current state pension age is 66 and it is set to rise to 67 between 2026 and 2028.

Japan’s PM vows to stay on despite bruising election - Japan's ruling coalition has lost its majority in the country's upper house following Sunday’s tightly-contested election but Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, who heads the long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party, has said he has no plans to quit. Having already lost its majority in Japan's more powerful lower house last year, the defeat will further undermine the coalition's influence.

Bangladesh plane tragedy - At least 19 people have died and 164 injured after a Bangladeshi air force training jet crashed into a school campus in the capital, Dhaka. The armed forces said in a statement that the F-7 jet experienced a mechanical fault after taking off for a training exercise. The pilot was among those killed.

FIVE THINGS

1. BBC verify largely factchecks international stories - what about UK politics? Stephen Cushion in The Conversation.

2. This is the Presidency John Roberts has built, argues Peter M. Shane in The Atlantic.

3. Lawrence Newport in CapX: Labour’s cowardice has ruined their planning reforms.

4. Stephen M. Walt on why Trump keeps betraying his base, in Foreign Policy.

5. The EU still wants a deal, but with US demands growing, the bloc is getting ready to push back, say Kim Mackrael and Bertrand Benoit in The Wall Street Journal.